Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Wichita, KS

893 
WWUS53 KICT 192054
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
354 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

KSC125-192130-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-180519T2130Z/
Montgomery KS-
354 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

At 354 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Caney, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Coffeyville, Caney, Dearing, Tyro, Liberty, Havana, Independence
Airport and Coffeyville Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3711 9596 3719 9563 3716 9552 3700 9552
      3700 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 239DEG 43KT 3698 9590 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

DARMOFAL

672 
WWUS53 KICT 192107
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
407 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

KSC125-192130-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-180519T2130Z/
Montgomery KS-
407 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

At 406 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Tyro, or 7
miles west of Coffeyville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Coffeyville, Caney, Dearing, Tyro, Liberty, Havana, Independence
Airport and Coffeyville Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3711 9596 3719 9563 3716 9552 3700 9552
      3700 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 239DEG 35KT 3704 9577 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

ES

788 
WWUS53 KICT 192127
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
427 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

KSC125-192137-
/O.EXP.KICT.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-180519T2130Z/
Montgomery KS-
427 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Kansas.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Wichita.

LAT...LON 3711 9596 3719 9563 3716 9552 3700 9552
      3700 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 239DEG 35KT 3714 9555 

$$

ES

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
110 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

A mid/upper trough over the Central Great Basin area is progged
to shear eastward while another shortwave trough over the Ohio
Valley area lifts north and east allowing the mid/upper ridge
axis to shift east of the area. At the surface, a cold front is
progged to move south across the Central Plains states today.
This front will provide a focus for deep moist convection during
the late afternoon with higher probabilities during the evening
hours. We may see an attempt along a dryline this afternoon along
and east of the Turnpike, but confidence in this scenario remains
fairly low. Ongoing convection during the predawn hours today will
likely linger into the morning hours across portions of the area with
continued low level moisture transport into a weakly capped
airmass. As we move into the afternoon hours, the RAP and to a
lessor degree the NAM and GFS indicate veered low level flow with
marginal moisture progged in the boundary layer. Although the deep
layer shear improves compared to the previous day, the wind
profiles are progged to be more unidirectional with some
indication of backing in the H7-H5 layer. This should support a
more linear mode along the frontal boundary during the evening and
overnight hours where large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain
will be the primary threats. The better tornado threat appears to
remain north and east of our forecast area where the low level
flow will have a better chance of being backed on the eastern
periphery of the sfc low, but it will be hard to rule out a brief
tornado or two during the early stages of development or along the
dryline if cells can remain more discrete. Storms may linger into
the overnight hours as the effective front eventually is driven
south and east of the area.

Sun-Mon...Maintained low pops early Sunday, but the focus should
be south and east of the area where better chances for showers and
storms will remain. Temperatures are expected to be closer to
climate normals with values ranging from the low 70s across
central KS to near 80 in the southeast corner of the state.
Shortwave ridging will emerge from the Rockies early in the week
as we remain in a stable post-frontal regime. Rising temperatures
are anticipated with above normal temperature quickly returning on
Mon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Southwest mid/upper flow is progged to return as we move through
much of the upcoming week. This will help steer any subtle
shortwave troughs into the area bringing additional chances for
showers and storms through much of the period. Above normal
temperatures are also expected with highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Once again thunderstorm activity is the primary concern for this
forecast period. There has been some shower development in
central KS which would impact KRSL and KGBD for the next couple of
hours. The cold front is on the move and winds are beginning to
swing to the north. This frontal boundary and an outflow boundary
are going to be the source of thunderstorms closer to 0Z. Tempo
groups have been inserted for each site for the highlighted time
periods of greatest potential based on the latest model guidance
as well as IFR conditions given the expected heavy rainfall. Amendments
are certain once the initialization occurs.

As the front moves through and mentioned above, there will be a
shift in the wind direction. This could occur sooner than
currently in the forecast. A gradual trend has been indicated for
now. Ceilings are expected to drop behind the precipitation and
fall to the MVFR category and stay there for the latter part of
this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    87  56  76  58 /  50  60  20  10
Hutchinson      81  54  74  54 /  50  60  10  10
Newton          83  54  74  55 /  50  60  20  10
ElDorado        85  55  76  57 /  60  60  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   90  57  77  59 /  60  60  20  10
Russell         70  50  70  51 /  50  20  10  10
Great Bend      72  49  71  52 /  40  20  10  10
Salina          77  54  71  53 /  50  50  20  10
McPherson       79  53  72  53 /  50  60  20  10
Coffeyville     90  63  81  61 /  60  60  10  10
Chanute         89  62  80  59 /  70  60  20  10
Iola            88  62  79  58 /  70  60  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    90  62  81  60 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...VJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
134 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-201845-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
134 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe storms may develop late this afternoon with better chances
this evening across much of the area. The greatest risk is expected
across south central Kansas and the Flint Hills. Damaging winds of
60 to 70 mph, hen egg sized hail and even a tornado will be
possible. Additionally localized flooding could occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Chances for thunderstorms will remain in the forecast periodically
from late Monday night through Friday. While a few strong storms
will be possible, the risk for organized severe storms appears low
at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening across much of south
central Kansas and the Flint hills area.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1108 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FALL RIVER              37.61N 96.03W
05/19/2018  M2.60 INCH       GREENWOOD          KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA FACEBOOK OF A TOTAL SINCE MIDNIGHT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 AM     HAIL             9 NE WINFIELD           37.37N 96.86W
05/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       COWLEY             KS   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. ESTIMATED MARBLE SIZE
            HAIL FOR 3-4 MINUTES FOLLOWED BY QUARTER SIZE HAIL OR
            SLIGHTLY LARGER FOR A BRIEF TIME THEREAFTER.

&&

TVAUGHAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

KSZ095-096-099-100-192100-
Montgomery KS-Wilson KS-Labette KS-Neosho KS-
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southeastern Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Northwestern Labette County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southwestern Neosho County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 400 PM CDT

* At 324 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm just north of Independence...moving
  northeast at 30 mph. Another strong storm was located 7 miles
  southeast of Independence.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Parsons, Independence, Neodesha, Cherryvale, Thayer, Liberty,
  Sycamore, Lake Parsons, Parsons Tri City Airport, Dennis and Big
  Hill Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3711 9562 3731 9580 3758 9551 3733 9523
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 230DEG 27KT 3726 9570

DARMOFAL