Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Wichita, KS

125 
WWUS53 KICT 290819
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
319 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

KSC155-159-169-290829-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-180729T0830Z/
Reno KS-Rice KS-Saline KS-
319 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN RENO...
NORTHEASTERN RICE AND SOUTHERN SALINE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for
south central and central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3817 9738 3812 9770 3817 9770 3818 9771
      3826 9772 3833 9769 3834 9752 3836 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0819Z 275DEG 12KT 3825 9757 

$$

KSC079-113-290830-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-180729T0830Z/
McPherson KS-Harvey KS-
319 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON AND NORTHWESTERN HARVEY COUNTIES...

At 319 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Moundridge,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Moundridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9738 3812 9770 3817 9770 3818 9771
      3826 9772 3833 9769 3834 9752 3836 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0819Z 275DEG 12KT 3825 9757 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CARUSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1202 AM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Latest satellite and radar imagery shows a developing cumulus
field across southeast Kansas mid-afternoon as the bulk of
thunderstorms remain located to both the north and south of the
county warning area. A few scattered thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and early evening in southeast Kansas
along an axis of surface-based CAPE east of the Kansas Turnpike.
Will continue to monitor the radar, though this activity should
wane after sunset when attention will then turn to more storm
chances later this evening and tonight.

The main challenge with the forecast during the short term is the
timing of expected widespread showers and thunderstorms over the
forecast area this evening and tonight. Another mid/upper level
disturbance is expected to initiate convective development over
the High Plains in northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas this
evening in a similar fashion as yesterday evening. A resulting
mesoscale convective complex (MCS) is forecast to then progress to
the southeast toward the forecast area, aided by strong
northwesterly flow aloft. Once again, the greatest instability
will be in northwest Kansas, where MLCAPE over 3000J/kg, lapse
rates in excess of 8 degrees C/km, and bulk shear in excess of
50kts will be located in a weakly capped environment. However,
though not as strong as in the northwest part of the state,
moderate instability is expected in central and south central
Kansas later this evening and overnight, when the MCS is expected
to arrive into the area. This will bring chances for strong and
severe storms, with damaging winds as a primary concern, though
localized flooding and hail remain a possibility as well. The best
chance for severe storms appears to be along and west of the
I-135 corridor, though strong to marginally severe storms could
certainly make it a little further to the east.

As previously mentioned, the main forecast challenge has been the
time of arrival of convective activity this evening and
overnight. Convective-allowing models (CAMs) including the RAP and
HRRR performed poorly during yesterday evening's event with time
of arrival into central Kansas, lagging about 4-5 hours behind
what actually occurred. With a similar setup as yesterday for
tonight, confidence in these short term models regarding timing is
fairly low at this point. In collaboration with surrounding
offices, have included slight and chance pops in central Kansas by
02-03z, with the better chance for storms beginning around
midnight or slightly after. To add to the complexity, the NAM and
increasingly other short range models are trending toward the
possibility of a split occurring, where two complexes diverge to
coincide with two separate areas of maximum CAPE. In this
scenario, it is possible that the Dodge City and Topeka county
warning areas could get the brunt of the activity with the western
complex having the greatest strong/severe potential. In this
case, portions of south central Kansas would be on the edge of
both complexes. Have kept a blended approach in the forecast with
higher confidence in seeing showers and storms develop over a
larger portion of the area during the overnight hours tonight
versus last night.

MCS is expected to move off to the east Sunday morning creating a
lull in activity for most of the area Sunday afternoon/evening
before another shortwave dives out of the Rockies and into Kansas
Sunday night through Monday afternoon bringing more chances for
showers and storms, though with marginal instability, widespread
severe weather is unlikely.

Kept highs unseasonably low on Sunday and Monday with storm
chances and thick cloud cover expected across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

After showers and storms move to the east of the area Monday
afternoon, the upper trough will continue to move off across the
Mississippi Valley Tuesday which will mark an end to the precip
chances over central, south central, and southeast Kansas. Models
remain in good agreement that the forecast will remain dry through
the rest of the work week next week. A gradual warm-up will begin
by Wednesday with highs returning to the low to mid 90s by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Chance for storms looking increasingly likely as HRRR is seemingly
on track with storms rolling southeast overnight. This seems more
plausible tonight as 0000 UTC upper air analysis showed better
850MB moisture across OK and into southern KS tonight than previous
nights and baroclinic zone ahead of ongoing precipitation. Believe
that high rainfall rates are probable with brief periods of MVFR
ceilings and visibility. Anticipate VFR by midday and relatively
dry condition through the remainder of the forecast. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  83  67  82 /  70  30  40  30
Hutchinson      69  82  65  80 /  60  20  40  30
Newton          69  81  64  80 /  60  20  30  30
ElDorado        69  81  64  80 /  60  30  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   71  84  66  82 /  60  30  40  40
Russell         66  80  62  79 /  70  20  40  20
Great Bend      67  81  63  80 /  70  20  40  20
Salina          68  82  64  81 /  50  20  30  30
McPherson       69  82  64  80 /  60  20  30  20
Coffeyville     69  84  66  82 /  60  60  40  40
Chanute         69  82  65  81 /  60  50  30  30
Iola            68  82  65  81 /  60  50  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    70  83  67  81 /  60  60  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...PJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
434 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-292145-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
434 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered storms will be possible in southeast Kansas for the rest
of the afternoon and early evening until shortly after sunset. Some
strong storms are possible, with gusty winds and small hail as the
main threats, though an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.

Later this evening and overnight, more numerous storms are expected
to move into central and south central Kansas from the northwest.
A few severe storms will be possible tonight for areas generally
along and north of the Kansas Turnpike. The stronger storms will be
capable of 60 mph winds, quarter size hail and high rainfall rates.
Storms across the remainder of the area will be capable of 50 mph
winds, small hail and brief heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Storms will be possible Sunday and especially Sunday night into
Monday morning. Severe storms are not expected with this activity.
However, the stronger storms will be capable of producing winds to
50 mph and brief heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
152 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW GREAT BEND AIRPOR 38.35N 98.86W
07/29/2018  M63 MPH          BARTON             KS   AWOS

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
156 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

KSZ048-290730-
Ellsworth KS-
156 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Eastern Ellsworth County in central Kansas...

* Until 230 AM CDT.

* At 155 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Ellsworth...moving southeast at
  50 mph.

wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Ellsworth, Kanopolis, Ellsworth Airport, Kanopolis Lake and
  Kanopolis State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 9793 3859 9793 3861 9834 3884 9827
TIME...MOT...LOC 0656Z 315DEG 43KT 3868 9830

CARUSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
202 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 AM     TSTM WND GST     ELLINWOOD               38.36N 98.58W
07/29/2018  E70 MPH          Barton             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
206 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     TSTM WND GST     ELLSWORTH AIRPORT       38.75N 98.23W
07/29/2018  M56 MPH          Ellsworth          KS   AWOS

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
223 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 AM     TSTM WND GST     LYONS                   38.35N 98.20W
07/29/2018  E70 MPH          Rice               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
226 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 AM     TSTM WND GST     STERLING                38.21N 98.21W
07/29/2018  E60 MPH          RICE               KS   PUBLIC

&&