Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Wichita, KS

048 
WWUS53 KICT 270326
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1026 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

KSC205-207-270336-
/O.EXP.KICT.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-180627T0330Z/
Wilson KS-Woodson KS-
1026 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WILSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN WOODSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3768 9573 3772 9596 3790 9596 3783 9571
TIME...MOT...LOC 0326Z 300DEG 12KT 3775 9576 

$$

LAWSON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
629 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

An upper level low is located over northeast Iowa this afternoon,
At the surface, a weak frontal boundary/trough extends from Iowa
southwest into southern Kansas. The cluster of thunderstorms that
developed ahead of this boundary earlier this morning continues to
push E/SE across our far eastern counties at this time. These
storms will continue to pose a damaging wind threat as they clear
the area.

In the wake of this activity, satellite and radar imagery show a
residual outflow boundary draped across parts of southern KS.
Recently, this boundary has shown signs of shifting NE as
southwesterly low/mid level flow ensues. At the same time, upper
level ridging is beginning to build in from the Four Corners
region. The question, then, is whether or not convection can
redevelop along this boundary. The better upper level forcing will
be east of the area, suggesting at least some subsidence in its
wake. This along with some mid level height rises may be enough to
keep a lid on any additional convection. That said, the increasing
low/mid level flow/warm air advection this evening combined with
at least some weak surface convergence along the boundary may be
just enough to allow a few thunderstorms to develop. For now,
we'll keep lower-end pops in the forecast to account for this
potential. If any storm were to develop, it would be in an
environment favorable for severe thunderstorms, primarily capable
of damaging wind and large hail. The key takeaway here, though,
is the threat of any redevelopment is very much conditional and
confidence remains low.

Beyond today, the main concern will continue to be the heat as the
upper level ridge continues to build east across the
Central/Southern Plains. Temperatures warming well into the 90s to
near 100 combined with dewpoints in the 70s will allow heat
indices to near or exceed 105 both Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons, especially east of I-135. For now, we will leave the
current area highlighted in the Heat Advisory as is as this is
where the best chance of seeing those higher dewpoints/heat
indices is. Increasing southwesterly winds may promote better
mixing by Thursday/Friday, with the threat of 105+ heat indices
being more focused across SE KS. After coordination with
surrounding offices, it was decided to extend the Advisory into
Thursday afternoon. However, the western tier of counties may be
able to be dropped from this advisory Thursday afternoon if the
somewhat lower dewpoints pan out. - Martin

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Medium range models continue to remain in good agreement regarding
the eastward shift of the upper ridge and the development of a WRN
US trough. This should lead to an increased risk of thunderstorms
over the weekend along with a subsequent decrease in temperatures
(albeit, slight). - Martin

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop over eastern
Kansas for this evening then should gradually diminish after 06z.
Meanwhile VFR conditions will prevail across the region with
light south winds in the morning gradually increasing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74 100  75 100 /  30   0   0   0
Hutchinson      73 100  75 101 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          73  98  75 100 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        72  97  74  97 /  20   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   74  99  75  97 /  30   0   0   0
Russell         70 102  74 104 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      70 101  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          71 102  76 105 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       72 100  75 102 /  20   0   0   0
Coffeyville     75  96  75  96 /  30   0   0   0
Chanute         74  95  75  96 /  30   0   0   0
Iola            73  95  75  96 /  30   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    75  95  75  96 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
KSZ049-051>053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
946 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-280300-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
946 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe storms will affect south central and southeast Kansas tonight
with large hail up to two inches and damaging winds up to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Heat indices are expected to climb to around 105 degrees both
Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and early evening. See latest heat
advisory for additional details. For Friday through Saturday,
afternoon heat indices will be around 100 degrees.

Storms will return to the forecast for Saturday night through
Monday as a cold front approaches the area. Strong storms look
possible with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed across mainly southern Kansas.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
937 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     HAIL             3 SSW VALLEY CENTER     37.80N 97.40W
06/26/2018  E2.50 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
938 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0937 PM     HAIL             1 S MAIZE               37.76N 97.46W
06/26/2018  E1.25 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   PUBLIC

            TWITTER REPORT OF HAIL JUST LARGER THAN
            QUARTERS SOUTH OF MAIZE.

&&

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
940 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             MAIZE                   37.77N 97.46W
06/26/2018  E2.50 INCH       Sedgwick           KS   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED VIA TWITTER PHOTO.

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
942 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     HAIL             COLWICH                 37.78N 97.54W
06/26/2018  E1.00 INCH       Sedgwick           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            60 MPH WINDS ACCOMPANIED THE HAIL.

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
945 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     TSTM WND GST     COLWICH                 37.78N 97.54W
06/26/2018  M62 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER MEASURED A 62 MPH WIND GUST NEAR
            COLWICH.

&&

MARTIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
948 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

KSZ069-270345-
Butler KS-
948 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  East central Butler County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1045 PM CDT.

* At 946 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 14 miles
  west of Eureka to near El Dorado...and moving south at 15 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  El Dorado, Augusta, Leon, Rosalia, El Dorado Airport, Beaumont, El
  Dorado Lake and El Dorado State Park.

LAT...LON 3769 9700 3792 9694 3791 9652 3765 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 345DEG 13KT 3786 9654 3785 9692

HOWERTON