Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
331 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

Today:
Complex pattern with elevated storms going in warm air advection
and diffluent upper flow over Flint Hills and southeast KS. These
should move out of the area before daybreak. Meanwhile outflow
boundary has pushed well ahead of convection in northern KS with
precipitation dwindling on western edge where capping is stronger.
Still anticipate small pops warranted for northeastern edge of
the forecast area area. Gusty north winds anticipated behind the
front along with cooler temperatures. Winds go light and west
tonight.

Sunday-Monday:
The cooler air will linger into Sunday as surface high pressure
moves across the area. Return flow develops on Monday, with small
chances for precipitation starting early Monday morning and
continuing until daybreak Tuesday as shortwave moves through
northwest flow. ECMWF with a slightly deeper/sharper shortwave is
a bit more generous with precipitation than GFS. Temperatures
will be limited by clouds and precipitation. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

The overall trend during this period is for upper ridge to build
across the plains which suggest warming temperatures throughout
the period. Both ECMWF/GFS suggest potential for mainly nocturnal
MCSs from Wednesday night through end of the period.
Forecastability of these at this time range is difficult. While
confidence is high that storms will develop somewhere on the
plains, timing/location within the forecast area is not. Suspect
both high and low temperatures from Wed-Fri may be a bit low given
thickness, unless significant clouds and/or precipitation occurs
during the day. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

LLWS of 19040kt/20050kt are likely across all areas til a cold
front surging ESE across KS causes the LLWS to weaken. As the
front approaches KSLN, (+)TSRA that'll cross NE KS may clip the
terminal. As such have introduced 3SM TSRA to KSLN from 10-12Z
when/where MVFR cigs ~1,500ft now appear possible. The passing
front would then induce a SHARP S/SW-N/NW windshift. The cold
front should reach KRSL & KGBD ~10Z, KSLN, KHUT KICT ~12Z. Prior
to the front's arrival, Sly winds sustained from 17-22kts with
gusts ~25kts are likely across C & SC KS throughout the eve. After
frontal passage, N/NW winds sustained ~22kts with gusts ~30kts
are likely across C & SC KS until early Sat afternoon when some
diminishment may occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    86  59  87  61 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      84  58  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          83  59  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        84  56  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   86  57  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         82  56  86  61 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      83  56  85  61 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          83  58  87  62 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       83  58  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     89  57  86  59 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         85  57  85  59 /  20   0   0   0
Iola            84  56  84  59 /  20   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    88  57  85  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...EPS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
426 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-030930-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
426 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms move across areas roughly east of a line from Salina
to El Dorado to Sedan Salina to Chanute this morning. The primary
threat will be winds around 50 mph and brief heavy rain. The storms
should exit the area by 10 AM.

Strong north winds are expected behind the cold front later this
morning. Sustained winds around 30 mph, with gusts over 40 mph, are
expected west of a line from Salina to McPherson to Hutchinson to
Anthony. The winds will diminish during the afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There will be multiple chances for thunderstorms next week, and some
of these will be strong with small hail and winds around 50 mph.
Thunderstorms are currently forecast from early Monday morning
through daybreak Tuesday, Wednesday night and again Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Howerton

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
209 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

KSZ032-033-020815-
Russell KS-Lincoln KS-
209 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Russell County in central Kansas...
  Northern Lincoln County in central Kansas...

* Until 315 AM CDT

* At 204 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a line of strong thunderstorms near Russell...moving
  southeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of up to 45 mph will be possible ahead of the line of
thunderstorms even in areas where no precipitation is occuring.
Strong cross-winds are possible along I-70.

* Locations impacted include...
  Russell, Lincoln, Lucas, Gorham, Sylvan Grove, Luray, Barnard,
  Bunker Hill, Paradise, Waldo, Ash Grove, Russell Airport, Wilson
  State Park and Wilson Lake.

LAT...LON 3922 9793 3914 9793 3873 9890 3884 9904
      3913 9904 3913 9849 3922 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 0707Z 314DEG 39KT 3897 9883

VAUGHAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
355 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

KSZ049-051>053-021000-
McPherson KS-Marion KS-Chase KS-Saline KS-
355 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northern McPherson County in central Kansas...
  Northern Marion County in central Kansas...
  Northern Chase County in east central Kansas...
  Saline County in central Kansas...

* Until 500 AM CDT

* At 350 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a line of strong thunderstorms 6 miles south of
  Bennington, or 8 miles north of Salina...moving south at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of up to 50 mph will be possible. In addition, gusty
winds are possible ahead of the line of thunderstorms even in areas
where no precipitation is occuring.

* Locations impacted include...
  Salina, Lindsborg, Strong City, Marquette, Assaria, Gypsum,
  Brookville, Smolan, Lincolnville, Ramona, New Cambria, Durham,
  Tampa, Falun, Glendale, Lost Springs, Bridgeport, Kipp, Salina
  Airport and Hymer.

LAT...LON 3896 9738 3861 9737 3861 9693 3852 9693
      3852 9635 3838 9635 3841 9792 3896 9792
TIME...MOT...LOC 0853Z 339DEG 44KT 3894 9762

VAUGHAN

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