Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
640 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.UPDATE...
For 00Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

By early this evening, a broken line of thunderstorms may still be
ongoing from southern middle TN into the Shoals. However, there is
still uncertainty on the intensity of said storms as the airmass may
become worked over this afternoon. Nevertheless, will maintain the
threat of severe wx in the HWO for this evening. PoPs go down
dramatically after 06Z, leaving only a slight chance in for our
southeastern counties.

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

With westerly or northwesterly flow synoptics, you know there isn't
much of a break in the action for very long. That is the case on
Saturday with a very fast-moving shortwave moving from the Rockies
through the Plains tonight and into the Ozark Plateau and mid south
Saturday morning. A large MCS will feed off the low level jet which
veers to the west over TN and north MS/AL on Saturday. This will
accelerate this system with some wind damage potential expected given
the unidirectional wind profile and strong instability and moisture
this system will feed off of on Saturday. Even if severe weather
doesn't materialize, locally heavy rain/training echoes are likely on
Saturday so will have to watch the flash flood threat.

As the LLJ wanes Saturday evening and backs to the south again, there
will be more of an anticyclonic curvature to the low level flow
locally with the low level convergence zone shifting to our north
into central and northern TN. One more more MCS clusters will
redevelop again along the boundary where a 25-35kt LLJ will reside.
Will draw the PoP field in this fashion with lower chances south and
slightly higher chances in our north counties Saturday night into
early Sunday morning. Sunday itself may be dry for most areas
altogether.  Clouds, including anvil blowoff, may give us a small
break from the 90s for our northern counties, but still should reach
around 90 south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

The building upper ridge will be the big weather story early to
middle of next week. This means the heat and muggy regime will return
for the last week of June. Will keep the low PoP the suggested blend
has for Monday into Tuesday in case some "ridge rider" thunderstorms
or small MCSs drop southeast and clip our region. The ECMWF/GFS both
suggest the ridge breaking down a bit for this to occur. However, if
the ridge remains in tact, the PoP may be dropped further in future
updates. Went above the blended guidance for high temperatures by a
few degrees in days 5-7 with lower to middle 90s quite possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Based on current radar trends, kept predominant -tsra in at KHSV
through 03Z, lowering vsbys into the mvfr realm. There could be
periods of lower vsbys into the IFR realm or lower due to heavier
thunderstorm activity some of that time. Not as sure it will be
as predominant or last that long at KMSL, so have a tempo of -tsra
between 23/00Z and 23/02Z lowering vsbys to MVFR realm at least.
Expect cloud cover to break up after 03Z at KMSL especially. KHSV
might hold onto a low stratus deck though. Thus, keep vsbys in the
mvfr realm through 23/09Z at KMSL, due to some expected fog
formation. VFR conditions should return by daybreak on Saturday.
Gusty northwest winds between 10 and 20 knots are expected in the
afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...KTW

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
201 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-231000-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
201 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will shift southeast across the area through
this evening. A strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out,
with hail and gusty winds the main risks. Isolated thunderstorms may
linger after midnight southeast of a Scottsboro to Hartselle line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Another round of thunderstorms is likely on Saturday. A few strong
storms with gusty winds are quite possible.

Thunderstorm chances will shift to far north Alabama and southern
Tennessee Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Additional thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast each day,
but the chances will be rather low as high pressure builds across the
region. Hot and humid weather is expected next week with heat index
values around 100 possible in many locations.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
possible through early this evening.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
518 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

ALZ009-TNZ097-222245-
Jackson AL-Franklin TN-
518 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 518 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Huntland, or 15 miles south of Winchester, moving
east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hytop, Estillfork, Francisco, Jericho and Larkin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong gusty winds will be capable of knocking down small tree limbs
along with other small unsecured items. Seek safe shelter until this
storm has passed.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 8592 3491 8630 3494 8629 3494 8628
      3492 8627 3493 8626 3494 8626 3496 8629
      3502 8628 3503 8591
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 274DEG 32KT 3496 8615

09

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
526 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

ALZ004-007-222315-
Lawrence AL-Morgan AL-
526 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MORGAN AND CENTRAL
LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 526 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Moulton, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Decatur, Moulton, Trinity, Mt Hope, Chalybeate Springs, Speake, Ne
Smith, Caddo, Wren and Landersville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong gusty winds will be capable of knocking down small tree limbs
along with other small unsecured items. Seek safe shelter until this
storm has passed.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3446 8751 3463 8746 3461 8702 3434 8709
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 281DEG 23KT 3454 8740

JMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
537 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

ALZ005-006-222300-
Madison AL-Limestone AL-
537 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND
SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 536 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tanner, or 7 miles southeast of Athens, moving east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Huntsville, Madison, Athens, Redstone Arsenal, Moores Mill, Alabama A
And M University, Marshall Space Flight Center, University Of Alabama
In Huntsville, Huntsville International Airport and Tanner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong gusty winds will be capable of knocking down small tree limbs
along with other small unsecured items. Seek safe shelter until this
storm has passed.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 8651 3457 8652 3466 8703 3477 8702
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 273DEG 27KT 3473 8687

09

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
612 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

ALZ006>009-230000-
Marshall AL-Madison AL-Morgan AL-Jackson AL-
612 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JACKSON...NORTHERN MARSHALL...
SOUTHERN MADISON AND EAST CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 612 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles north of Gurley to 7 miles south of
Triana. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Huntsville, Scottsboro, Guntersville, Bridgeport, Moores Mill,
Redstone Arsenal, Meridianville, Stevenson, Owens Cross Roads and
Hollywood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong gusty winds will be capable of knocking down small tree limbs
along with other small unsecured items. Seek safe shelter until this
line of storms has passed.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3447 8605 3443 8611 3439 8611 3446 8689
      3456 8681 3455 8679 3458 8679 3485 8656
      3494 8569
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 259DEG 43KT 3481 8637 3448 8676

JMS