Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
920 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 920 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

Squall line is coming more together now across west TN into NE MS
this Mon evening. Developing line is still fairly linear at this
point, although as the QLCS becomes more organized over the next
couple of hrs, it should begin to show more bowing segments as the
airmass continues to destabilize. Tornado Watches are in effect
across portions of west/mid TN into north MS and will likely be
issued for the cntrl TN Valley in the next hr or so. Main wx threats
with the oncoming squall line continue to be damaging winds, large
hail and tornadoes. The line should make its way across the area thru
the overnight period and begin to exit NE AL heading into the
daytime hrs Tue. Trailing cold front will also make its way thru the
area shorty after the squall line, exiting NE AL to the east Tue
morning. The wx should quickly improve in the wake of the frontal
passage Tue morning, with rainfall tapering off just in time for
Election Day. Only major change to the ongoing forecast was to have
POPs mirror the movement of the squall line to the east during the
overnight period.

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

Shower activity will quickly end from west to east across our eastern
areas after daybreak Election Day Tuesday, as the QLCS and front head
east of the region. Air temperatures behind the front are not that
much colder, with highs on Tuesday rising to around 70. This also big
picture wise will help tamp down overall storm strength.

In a trough dominated mid/upper level pattern into the midweek across
the greater North American domain, another system forming to our west
will bring more chances of showers for the midweek. Upglide and
moisture with this next system, along with minimal shear could bring
an isolated thunderstorm in as well. Cooler air filtering in from the
west will result in a cooler mid week, with high temperatures only in
the low/mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

The extended portion of the forecast begins Wednesday night with a
disturbance moving through relatively zonal H5 flow. This will have
sparked some shower activity across the area during the day
Wednesday, with activity tapering off from NW to SE through the day.
Lows Thursday morning will bottom out in the lower/middle 40s before
yet another disturbance affects the area later in the day. This lobe
of vorticity will precede a deepening H5 trof diving SE from the
Upper MidW. While scattered showers are possible Thursday, a more
widespread rain event arrives the next day as the upper trof deepens
and becomes negatively tilted across the Great Lakes. A sfc low will
strengthen across the OH Valley and drag a cold front across the area
late in the day Friday, bringing upwards of 0.75" of rainfall to the
region once again.

High pressure at the sfc builds into the area for the weekend, with
dry and unseasonably cold temperatures expected. After daytime highs
Friday only topping out in the lower/middle 50s, lows Saturday
morning will fall into the lower to middle 30s. Some moderation of
temps is expected by Saturday afternoon with highs climbing into the
lower 50s. A colder morning is expected Sunday morning with
temperatures at or slightly below freezing. As a result, widespread
frost is expected both mornings, with the potential for a Freeze
Warning possible Sunday morning (as of this moment). Will continue to
monitor this threat and will issue appropriate products as necessary
as the window of time for that nears.

Beyond the weekend, another (mostly dry) cold front will push through
the area on Monday, with another sfc high building into the area from
the NW. Have only included SCHC PoPs for this time period for now,
but this may need adjusting as we head through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

MVFR cigs just above 1K ft remain in place at the two main airports
heading into the early evening hrs this Mon. These low clouds are in
place ahead of a cold front moving ewd into the Midwest region.
Shra/tsra are developing ahead of this front as they spread ewd into
west TN. A line of more organized tsra is expcted to develop/move
ewd across the area going into the overnight period. Reduced cigs/vis
are likely within this line of tsra, along with vrb winds gusting up
to 40kt or so. The line should then move east of the area, along with
the cold front itself, heading into the morning hrs Tue, with precip
tapering off and cigs lifting above 3K ft. South winds around 18kt
with higher gusts ahead of the front should also diminish with the
frontal passage. Cloud cover should then diminish/sct late Mon
morning, with VFR conds xpcted thru the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...09

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
314 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-061200-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-De Kalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
314 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move across the
Tennessee Valley late tonight through early Tuesday morning. Isolated
severe storms may also develop ahead of this line late this evening.
Widespread damaging winds of 60 to 70 MPH are likely and a few
tornadoes are possible. A lesser chance for large hail is also
possible. The threat for severe storms will be highest for northern
and western portions of the area.

Storms will exit the area quickly to the east by sunrise or shortly
thereafter in northeastern Alabama.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Cold temperatures will filter into the area for late this week, with
the potential for widespread frost and freezing temperatures
Saturday and especially Sunday mornings.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
requested tonight into early Tuesday morning.

12