Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
235 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will gradually exit off the coast this evening. It
will be noticeably cooler and drier on Wednesday behind the
front as high pressure builds in through the remainder of the
work week. A weak disturbance passing by to the north could
bring a few showers on Saturday. Warm, humid weather returns
early next week as high pressure moves east and a southerly flow
brings in the warm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
A slow moving cold front will slip southwards through Maine and
New Hampshire for the remainder of the afternoon and early
evening. Ahead of this front, the atmosphere has been allowed to
destabilize. Temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s, along with
dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s will continue to allow
for high CAPE values through sunset. Splitting cells and line
segments a possibility through this evening. Have included the
threat of damaging winds and large hail as a few storms may
become severe.

Otherwise, the front gradually exits the coastline later this
evening with showers and any leftover storms gradually coming to
an end. There will be patchy fog in some of the inland valleys,
especially in any locations that receive heavy rainfall.

Cold air advection behind the front will allow northern areas to
drop into the 40s for overnight lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Behind the front, cooler and drier air is expected on Wednesday.
Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler then today with H8
readings around +10C. Dew point values will be noticeably lower
as well.

Conditions will remain dry despite the presence of a weak upper
level trough remaining over the region.

More cool conditions expected Wednesday night. Patchy fog may
develop once again over the inland, sheltered valley locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the area Thursday and Friday
bringing dry conditions. Temperatures will be near or slightly
above normal while the dry, calm conditions allow nighttime lows
to drop below normal.

The next upper trough slides by mainly to our north on Saturday,
but could bring some rain showers just about area wide. Not a
lot of instability for thunder with this, just some scattered
showers. High pressure behind this trough moves across the area
on Sunday, with an upper level ridge building in by early next
week. This will open up the door to some warm and humid air from
our southwest to be sent up our way. Temperatures in the upper
80s and low 90s are possible again with some humidity as well.
This should last until the next cold front moves through which
at this point looks likely to arrive Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Areas of IFR conditions in scattered showers and
thunderstorms through this evening. Damaging winds and hail
possible in a few of these storms.

Long Term...High pressure builds in behind the front and brings
dry weather and light winds through Friday. A trough brings some
scattered showers on Saturday, so MVFR conditions are possible,
with VFR returning by Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Seas and winds will remain below SCA thresholds
through Wednesday night. There will be a wind shift to the
northwest this evening with the frontal passage.

Long Term...High pressure builds in behind the front for the
rest of this week and into the weekend, keeping winds light and
seas fairly calm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of high astronomical tides and incoming swell
from tropical cyclone Chris may lead to minor splash-over near
the times of high tide Wednesday night into Thursday night.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Cannon
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Kimble

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
302 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-NHZ001>013-015-111915-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-
Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-
Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
302 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire,
central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New
Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A cold front will cross the region through this evening, producing
scattered thunderstorms, some of which will be capable of producing
strong, gusty winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ023>028-NHZ014-111915-
Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Coastal Rockingham-
302 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine,
southwest Maine and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A cold front will cross the region through this evening, producing
scattered thunderstorms, some of which will be capable of producing
strong, gusty winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Long period swell from the passage of tropical cyclone Chris well to
our south and east may lead to an increased rip current risk and
possibly minor splash-over Wednesday night into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ150>154-111915-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
302 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A cold front will cross the waters through this evening, producing
scattered thunderstorms, some of which will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A tropical storm will pass east of the waters Wednesday into
Thursday generating long period swell.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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