Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
235 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will gradually exit off the coast this evening. It
will be noticeably cooler and drier on Wednesday behind the
front as high pressure builds in through the remainder of the
work week. A weak disturbance passing by to the north could
bring a few showers on Saturday. Warm, humid weather returns
early next week as high pressure moves east and a southerly flow
brings in the warm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
A slow moving cold front will slip southwards through Maine and
New Hampshire for the remainder of the afternoon and early
evening. Ahead of this front, the atmosphere has been allowed to
destabilize. Temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s, along with
dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s will continue to allow
for high CAPE values through sunset. Splitting cells and line
segments a possibility through this evening. Have included the
threat of damaging winds and large hail as a few storms may
become severe.

Otherwise, the front gradually exits the coastline later this
evening with showers and any leftover storms gradually coming to
an end. There will be patchy fog in some of the inland valleys,
especially in any locations that receive heavy rainfall.

Cold air advection behind the front will allow northern areas to
drop into the 40s for overnight lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Behind the front, cooler and drier air is expected on Wednesday.
Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler then today with H8
readings around +10C. Dew point values will be noticeably lower
as well.

Conditions will remain dry despite the presence of a weak upper
level trough remaining over the region.

More cool conditions expected Wednesday night. Patchy fog may
develop once again over the inland, sheltered valley locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds across the area Thursday and Friday
bringing dry conditions. Temperatures will be near or slightly
above normal while the dry, calm conditions allow nighttime lows
to drop below normal.

The next upper trough slides by mainly to our north on Saturday,
but could bring some rain showers just about area wide. Not a
lot of instability for thunder with this, just some scattered
showers. High pressure behind this trough moves across the area
on Sunday, with an upper level ridge building in by early next
week. This will open up the door to some warm and humid air from
our southwest to be sent up our way. Temperatures in the upper
80s and low 90s are possible again with some humidity as well.
This should last until the next cold front moves through which
at this point looks likely to arrive Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Areas of IFR conditions in scattered showers and
thunderstorms through this evening. Damaging winds and hail
possible in a few of these storms.

Long Term...High pressure builds in behind the front and brings
dry weather and light winds through Friday. A trough brings some
scattered showers on Saturday, so MVFR conditions are possible,
with VFR returning by Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Seas and winds will remain below SCA thresholds
through Wednesday night. There will be a wind shift to the
northwest this evening with the frontal passage.

Long Term...High pressure builds in behind the front for the
rest of this week and into the weekend, keeping winds light and
seas fairly calm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of high astronomical tides and incoming swell
from tropical cyclone Chris may lead to minor splash-over near
the times of high tide Wednesday night into Thursday night.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Cannon
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Kimble

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
302 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-NHZ001>013-015-111915-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-
Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-
Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-
Western And Central Hillsborough-
302 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire,
central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New
Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A cold front will cross the region through this evening, producing
scattered thunderstorms, some of which will be capable of producing
strong, gusty winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ023>028-NHZ014-111915-
Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Coastal Rockingham-
302 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine,
southwest Maine and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A cold front will cross the region through this evening, producing
scattered thunderstorms, some of which will be capable of producing
strong, gusty winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Long period swell from the passage of tropical cyclone Chris well to
our south and east may lead to an increased rip current risk and
possibly minor splash-over Wednesday night into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ150>154-111915-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
302 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A cold front will cross the waters through this evening, producing
scattered thunderstorms, some of which will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A tropical storm will pass east of the waters Wednesday into
Thursday generating long period swell.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
234 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

MEZ009-014-101900-
Southern Somerset-Central Somerset-
234 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY...

At 234 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Kingsbury Plantation, or 15 miles southwest of Guilford, moving east
at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bingham, Kingsbury Plantation, Athens, Harmony, Wellington, Brighton
Plantation, Mayfield, Ripley, Saint Albans and Solon.

LAT...LON 4499 6980 4516 6973 4515 6966 4511 6966
      4509 6964 4501 6962 4502 6952 4503 6952
      4504 6949 4505 6950 4507 6936 4502 6934
      4491 6931
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 286DEG 19KT 4506 6967

JC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
313 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

MEZ007>009-014-NHZ001-002-102015-
Northern Oxford-Southern Somerset-Northern Franklin-Central
Somerset-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-
313 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN OXFORD...
CENTRAL SOMERSET...NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN COOS COUNTIES...

At 312 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Greenville to
Orleans Village. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Colebrook, Eustis, Rangeley, Kingfield, Bingham, Carrabassett Valley,
Errol, Blanchard, Pittsburg, Dixville, Stratford, Guildhall, Canaan,
Maidstone, Bloomfield, Lemington, Kingsbury Plantation, Phillips,
Weld and Columbia.

This also includes...
  Umbagog Lake State Park, First Connecticut Lake, Kilkenny Ridge
Trail, Saddleback Mountain, and Sugarloaf Mountain.

LAT...LON 4553 6978 4508 6964 4454 7158 4456 7160
      4459 7154 4475 7163 4491 7150 4499 7154
      4501 7147 4501 7150 4507 7150 4514 7143
      4528 7092 4523 7086 4531 7081 4561 6971
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 333DEG 19KT 4556 6952 4482 7219

JC

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
405 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

MEZ014-021-022-102030-
Interior Waldo-Southern Somerset-Kennebec-
405 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMs WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN KENNEBEC...
NORTHWESTERN WALDO AND SOUTHEASTERN SOMERSET COUNTIES...

At 403 PM EDT, a couple of strong thunderstorms were located a few
miles west of Pittsfield and also Clinton, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fairfield, Pittsfield, Thorndike, Skowhegan, Clinton, Unity, Benton,
Canaan, Hartland, Cornville, Dixmont, Burnham, Brooks, Detroit,
Jackson, Palmyra, Troy and Monroe.

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 133 and 156.

LAT...LON 4455 6903 4460 6967 4489 6962 4487 6930
      4473 6927 4472 6925 4473 6920 4464 6918
      4467 6901
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 280DEG 18KT 4480 6954

JC

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