Severe Thunderstorm Warning 332, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
501 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper-level ridge will prevail over the Southeast through
the middle of the week, resulting in above normal temperatures and
reduced precipitation chances outside of the mountains. The ridge
will weaken late in the week, and precipitation chances will increase
modestly as we approach the weekend. Temperatures will remain hot
and humid through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 450 PM EDT Sunday: PoPs have been increased across
the foothills as outflows continue to drive west, and also increased
modestly across the I-77 corridor in the piedmont where new
development is occurring. An isolated, damaging downburst remains
possible given the fairly high dCAPE around 1000 J/kg in most areas.
Also, isolated flooding is possible given the slow storm motion and
steering flow into the terrain.

Convection should diminish through the evening, but isolated showers
will be possible, especially along and near the Blue Ridge
Escarpment where upslope flow lingers. This moist easterly low level
flow will also lead to low cloud development overnight especially
from the Escarpment east. Mountain valley fog is possible, but low
clouds may develop first keeping a lid on fog development. Lows will
be up to 5 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge over the area strengthens a little again on Monday.
However, the moist low level easterly flow continues which may again
aid in storm development. The CAM guidance finally agrees with the
synoptic scale models keeping the best chance of convection across
the mountains and showing minimal activity over the CLT Metro area.
Have gone with chc PoP mountains and slight chance elsewhere. Early
low clouds may limit heating initially, but with thickness values
remaining nearly steady, highs should again be up to 5 degrees above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...A large upper level anticyclone around 597 dam
centered over the Mid-Atlantic will have the most influence on our
weather Tuesday and Wednesday. This means, we should have a relative
minimum in convective coverage across the entire area. With that
said, a persistent easterly flow will supply low-level Atlantic
moisture upslope forcing to trigger a few showers and tstms both
aftns. Activity should wane quickly after sunset both evening.
Severe threat should remain low both days, but isolated heavy rain
will be possible due to slow storm motions. Patchy fog and low
stratus will be possible overnight Monday night and again Tuesday
night, thanks to the low-level moisture. Temps will be a couple
categories above normal thru the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday: The extended fcst picks up at 00z on Thursday
with upper ridging weakening over the Southeast as broad upper trofing
moves across SE Canada. Over the next couple of days, the upper trof
eventually moves east of Quebec as the flattened ridge remains over
the SE. By the end of the period next weekend, the long range guidance
has the ridge amplifying again over the region. At the sfc, a moist
ELY to SELY flow will continue over our region thru most of the period.
On Friday, a Canadian High moves just north of the Great Lakes before
shifting farther east. The NLY low-lvl flow associated with the high
is not expected to spread far enough southward to have much impact on
our fcst area. Therefore, moist SELY flow should continue to prevail.
PoPs will return to a more typical diurnal distribution with slight
to low-end solid chances over the non-mountain areas and solid to low
end likely PoPs over the higher terrain. Temperatures and dewpoints
are expected to remain a few degrees above normal thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Outflows are driving greater convective
coverage than expected this afternoon and TEMPO TSRA will be
warranted at most locations through early evening. Otherwise,
generally VFR conditions are expected except for areas experiencing
thunderstorms. Guidance can't agree if the moist low level easterly
flow will produce restrictions outside of the mountains. For now,
have gone with sct VFR and low VFR cigs but expect a downward trend
as we get closer to those periods. Guidance does agree on at least
IFR for KAVL but can't agree on fog or low stratus. For now, show
IFR for both. Low clouds will linger until nearly noon Monday then
scatter out for the afternoon.

Outlook: Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected
each afternoon through Tuesday. Areas of fog and low stratus can
also be expected each morning, primarily in the mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  85%
KAVL       High 100%     High  94%     Low   52%     High  85%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  98%     High  85%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  88%     High  98%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG/RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
441 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-030845-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
441 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. The storms
will be most widespread during the afternoon and early evening.
Cloud-to-ground lightning is possible with any of these
thunderstorms, along with torrential rainfall. A few of the storms
may produce severe, damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, or flash flooding to our office.

Wimberley

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