Severe Thunderstorm Warning 331, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

660 
WWUS52 KGSP 022128
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
528 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018

NCC021-089-149-161-022145-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0331.000000T0000Z-180902T2145Z/
Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-Polk NC-Buncombe NC-
528 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD...NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...NORTH CENTRAL
POLK AND SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...

At 527 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 14 miles northeast
of Hendersonville, or near Bat Cave, moving west at 15 mph.

Another strong thunderstorm over Rutherford County south of Union 
Mills will move west at 10 mph and into the warned area in the next 
15 minutes.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Lure, Chimney Rock Village, Chimney Rock State Park, Bat Cave,
Shingle Hollow and Green Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Brief damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines over small
areas. A brief period of large hail is also possible. Seek shelter
inside an interior room.

This storm is producing frequent and intense lightning. Turn off
electrical appliances. Do not use corded telephones. Do not take a
bath or shower.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 8227 3556 8225 3555 8220 3552 8216
      3553 8208 3549 8201 3540 8200 3536 8212
      3537 8234 3558 8230
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 100DEG 14KT 3547 8228 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MOORE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
501 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper-level ridge will prevail over the Southeast through
the middle of the week, resulting in above normal temperatures and
reduced precipitation chances outside of the mountains. The ridge
will weaken late in the week, and precipitation chances will increase
modestly as we approach the weekend. Temperatures will remain hot
and humid through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 450 PM EDT Sunday: PoPs have been increased across
the foothills as outflows continue to drive west, and also increased
modestly across the I-77 corridor in the piedmont where new
development is occurring. An isolated, damaging downburst remains
possible given the fairly high dCAPE around 1000 J/kg in most areas.
Also, isolated flooding is possible given the slow storm motion and
steering flow into the terrain.

Convection should diminish through the evening, but isolated showers
will be possible, especially along and near the Blue Ridge
Escarpment where upslope flow lingers. This moist easterly low level
flow will also lead to low cloud development overnight especially
from the Escarpment east. Mountain valley fog is possible, but low
clouds may develop first keeping a lid on fog development. Lows will
be up to 5 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge over the area strengthens a little again on Monday.
However, the moist low level easterly flow continues which may again
aid in storm development. The CAM guidance finally agrees with the
synoptic scale models keeping the best chance of convection across
the mountains and showing minimal activity over the CLT Metro area.
Have gone with chc PoP mountains and slight chance elsewhere. Early
low clouds may limit heating initially, but with thickness values
remaining nearly steady, highs should again be up to 5 degrees above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...A large upper level anticyclone around 597 dam
centered over the Mid-Atlantic will have the most influence on our
weather Tuesday and Wednesday. This means, we should have a relative
minimum in convective coverage across the entire area. With that
said, a persistent easterly flow will supply low-level Atlantic
moisture upslope forcing to trigger a few showers and tstms both
aftns. Activity should wane quickly after sunset both evening.
Severe threat should remain low both days, but isolated heavy rain
will be possible due to slow storm motions. Patchy fog and low
stratus will be possible overnight Monday night and again Tuesday
night, thanks to the low-level moisture. Temps will be a couple
categories above normal thru the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday: The extended fcst picks up at 00z on Thursday
with upper ridging weakening over the Southeast as broad upper trofing
moves across SE Canada. Over the next couple of days, the upper trof
eventually moves east of Quebec as the flattened ridge remains over
the SE. By the end of the period next weekend, the long range guidance
has the ridge amplifying again over the region. At the sfc, a moist
ELY to SELY flow will continue over our region thru most of the period.
On Friday, a Canadian High moves just north of the Great Lakes before
shifting farther east. The NLY low-lvl flow associated with the high
is not expected to spread far enough southward to have much impact on
our fcst area. Therefore, moist SELY flow should continue to prevail.
PoPs will return to a more typical diurnal distribution with slight
to low-end solid chances over the non-mountain areas and solid to low
end likely PoPs over the higher terrain. Temperatures and dewpoints
are expected to remain a few degrees above normal thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Outflows are driving greater convective
coverage than expected this afternoon and TEMPO TSRA will be
warranted at most locations through early evening. Otherwise,
generally VFR conditions are expected except for areas experiencing
thunderstorms. Guidance can't agree if the moist low level easterly
flow will produce restrictions outside of the mountains. For now,
have gone with sct VFR and low VFR cigs but expect a downward trend
as we get closer to those periods. Guidance does agree on at least
IFR for KAVL but can't agree on fog or low stratus. For now, show
IFR for both. Low clouds will linger until nearly noon Monday then
scatter out for the afternoon.

Outlook: Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected
each afternoon through Tuesday. Areas of fog and low stratus can
also be expected each morning, primarily in the mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  85%
KAVL       High 100%     High  94%     Low   52%     High  85%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  98%     High  85%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  88%     High  98%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG/RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
441 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-030845-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
441 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. The storms
will be most widespread during the afternoon and early evening.
Cloud-to-ground lightning is possible with any of these
thunderstorms, along with torrential rainfall. A few of the storms
may produce severe, damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, or flash flooding to our office.

Wimberley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
423 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018

NCZ070-071-SCZ009-022100-
Gaston NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
423 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG...
SOUTHEASTERN GASTON AND NORTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
EDT...

At 423 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Rock Hill, or near Town Of Lake Wylie, moving west at
5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, Tega Cay, Newport, Town Of Lake Wylie, Steele Creek, Lake
Wylie, Carowinds, South Gastonia, Fort Mill and Southwest Charlotte.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Lake Wylie is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground lightning
and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 8093 3496 8097 3494 8118 3521 8121
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 085DEG 6KT 3510 8102

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
427 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018

SCZ003-006-007-022100-
Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
427 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 427 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Columbus, or near Campobello, moving west at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Landrum, Inman, Campobello, Lake Robinson, Lake Bowen, Gowensville,
Glassy Mountain and North Saluda Reservoir.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3496 8234 3518 8237 3519 8237 3519 8232
      3520 8230 3519 8209 3502 8209
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 085DEG 6KT 3509 8218

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
434 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018

SCZ007-012-013-022100-
Laurens SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-
434 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL LAURENS...
SOUTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG AND WEST CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 500
PM EDT...

At 433 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Laurens, or 7 miles southeast of Woodruff, moving
west at 5 mph. Other strong storms were developing around Cross
Anchor and east of Buffalo, also moving slowly westward.

Locations to be impacted include...
Buffalo, Moore, Cross Keys, Enoree, Cross Anchor and Ora.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 8180 3475 8169 3468 8163 3463 8170
      3460 8181 3458 8200 3483 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 085DEG 6KT 3469 8191

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
449 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018

NCZ068-504-506-508-022115-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Greater Burke NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-
449 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...
NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL
BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 448 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Morganton, or near South Mountains State Park, moving
west at 5 mph.

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for southwestern
Burke County until 515 pm for a severe storm near Morganton.

Locations to be impacted include...
Casar, South Mountains State Park and Dysartsville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3562 8159 3552 8155 3547 8157 3546 8189
      3557 8192 3561 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 091DEG 5KT 3556 8166

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
452 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018

SCZ006-022115-
Greater Greenville SC-
452 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GREENVILLE COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM EDT...

At 452 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Greenville Downtown, or near Greenville Eastside.
This storm was nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Greenville Eastside, West Greenville, Mauldin,
Cherrydale Point, Donaldson Center, Welcome, Berea and Piedmont.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 8228 3470 8229 3470 8245 3490 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 091DEG 4KT 3480 8234

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
459 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018

NCZ071-082-022130-
Union NC-Mecklenburg NC-
459 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND
WEST CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 459 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Monroe, or near Weddington, moving west at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
South Charlotte, Southwest Charlotte, Matthews, Indian Trail,
Weddington, Stallings, Pineville, Wesley Chapel, Marvin and The
Arboretum.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 8078 3508 8091 3517 8093 3514 8067
      3496 8065
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 088DEG 9KT 3505 8072

MOORE