Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
431 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad upper low will settle across the Deep South through
Wednesday. This low will remain nearly stationary and support moist
unsettled weather across the region through mid-week, before
weakening ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 PM: A 500 mb trough axis will sharpen up just west of
the area tonight through Monday as the associated H5 low center
slides southward west of the Appalachians. Weak upper-level DPVA
lobes east of the trough, along with lower-level terrain forcing in
southerly flow, will generate the best shower/thunderstorm coverage
across the mountains through evening, with a secondary maximum out
along the I- 40 corridor. Additional scattered coverage is likely
farther south into the Upstate and NE GA on outflows. Profiles are
fairly moist, instability will be less than yesterday, DCAPE is low,
and wind shear will be much less so anticipate a much lower risk of
severe thunderstorms overall. Rainfall rates will need to be closely
monitored for any training of heavy showers, though. Based on the
lingering forcing aloft, and projected slow decline in MLCAPE,
the previous forecast appears to be on track: expect a diurnal
waning of coverage, although scattered showers will likely persist
across western NC through the nighttime hours. Minor adjustments
to PoP distribution were made based on CAM consensus. Temp trends
this aftn have been wrecked by outflow cooling in some spots;
these were touched up based on HRRR, which captures some of that.

Surface to 850 mb flow will steadily back toward southeasterly
through the day on Monday. This will increase the upslope forcing
into the east side of the southern Appalachians, with precipitable
water values steadily increasing as well. Anticipate fairly high
(likely to categorical) POPs for showers and embedded thunderstorms
through Monday afternoon. This will keep max temperatures about
two categories below climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday: The short-term fcst picks up at 00z on
Tuesday with a large and persistent upper low centered over the
Southeast CONUS and upper ridging to the east and west of the low.
Over the next couple of days, the low will gradually open back up
to the mean flow and lift northward. A large sfc low will be
co-located with the upper low over the Southeast to start the
period. This low is expected to persist over the region thru most
of the short-term period. By the end of the period late Wed, the
low does begin to fill in and lift northward as a cold front
approaches the fcst area from the NW. This synoptic pattern will
keep the fcst area under persistent, moist, SLY to SELY low-lvl
flow thru the period. This coincides with an area of weak, though
persistent, deep-layer Q-vector convergence. Although the guidance
keeps the highest QPF to our north and east, we should still have
periods of numerous showers with embedded tstms, capable of producing
torrential downpours. Isolated flooding concerns will exist thru
at least Tuesday night, with a greater overall threat across the
eastern half of the CWFA. Under ample cloud cover, high temperatures
are expected to remain below climatology each day while lows remain
near climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Sunday: An ulvl trof will continue to get sheared
out and engulfed in the mean w/ly flow during the beginning of the
period. The anomalous sfc low will weaken during this time as well
which will reduce the amt of Atl moist flux. This will reduce the
upslope hydro threat somewhat...yet PWATs will remain relatively
high thru the period with no good airmass change/mix anticipated
except for the wrn mtns on Thu as a weak sfc front pushes in.
Afternoon pulse tstms will generate fairly easily within the moist
airmass...yet instability will remain conditional with no sigfnt
triggers or conducive thermal layers available. The avg cloud cover
will continue to fairly high and this will help hold max temps arnd
or just below climo while keeping mins abv normal by a few degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR MISSING KAND ASOS DATA...

At KCLT and Elsewhere: Moistening profiles will produce increasing
chances of several rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the
TAF period, especially across western NC but also near KGSP and
KGMU. The better coverage across western NC, along with a developing
moist SSE upslope, may also contribute to morning MVFR or IFR
clouds, particularly at KAVL and KHKY. Some recovery to VFR is
expected throughout tomorrow, but frequent showers and afternoon
thunderstorms will be accompanied by MVFR to possibly IFR
restrictions at times throughout. Anticipate SW winds early becoming
SE or light overnight and then SE to ENE through the day on Monday.

Outlook: An active/wet period is expected to continue through at
least mid-week as a slow moving low pressure system impacts much of
the East. Numerous coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected
during this period with associated lower restrictions. While there
will likely be an afternoon/evening peak in the coverage on most
days, higher-than-normal chances will also exist during the
overnight and morning hours.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  87%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  91%     Med   70%     High  95%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   60%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  89%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     Med   61%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
424 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-232030-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
424 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop across the region through the evening and into the overnight.
The main threats will be cloud-to-ground lightning and locally heavy
rainfall. However, isolated severe storms will be possible, capable
of producing damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...Heavy rain possible. A persistent moist southeasterly
flow will increase the risk for heavy rainfall and flooding across
the area beginning late Monday and continuing through Wednesday.
..Tuesday...Heavy rain and flooding possible.
..Wednesday...Heavy rain and flooding possible.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
643 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

SCZ002-003-222315-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
643 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 642 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Brevard, or near Caesars Head State Park, moving
east at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Slater-Marietta, Table Rock State Park, Pleasant Ridge State Park,
Caesars Head State Park, Jones Gap State Park, Pumpkintown and
Cleveland.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 8270 3510 8271 3510 8269 3513 8268
      3512 8266 3513 8264 3513 8263 3514 8261
      3515 8257 3516 8255 3516 8250 3517 8249
      3518 8246 3517 8246 3516 8245 3520 8241
      3501 8240 3496 8258
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 266DEG 9KT 3507 8262

TDP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S PAW CREEK           35.20N 80.94W
07/22/2018                   MECKLENBURG        NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUPLE TREES DOWN AND PORT-O-JOHNS KNOCKED OVER ON CLT
            AIRPORT PROPERTY

&&

LEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
700 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

NCZ057-072-222330-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
700 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CABARRUS AND SOUTHWESTERN
ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 659 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles west of
Kannapolis to 11 miles south of Downtown Concord, and moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, West Concord, Harrisburg, China Grove,
Landis, Enochville, Mt Pleasant, Midland and Coddle Creek Reservoir.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3521 8048 3519 8051 3520 8052 3527 8067
      3534 8069 3537 8072 3549 8079 3551 8077
      3551 8074 3556 8074 3574 8058 3538 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 214DEG 13KT 3548 8071 3525 8058

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
701 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

NCZ082-222330-
Union NC-
701 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL 730
PM EDT...

At 700 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles south of Monroe, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Monroe, Unionville, Wingate, Marshville, Fairview In Union County,
Mineral Springs and Trinity.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8030 3482 8049 3482 8051 3492 8068
      3517 8054 3503 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 214DEG 13KT 3493 8055

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
705 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

NCZ037-057-222330-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-
705 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT DAVIE AND NORTHWESTERN ROWAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 705 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Mocksville, or 6 miles west of Cooleemee, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Mocksville, Cooleemee, Sheffield, Fork Church and Woodleaf.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3583 8047 3584 8047 3584 8048 3583 8049
      3583 8048 3572 8065 3579 8073 3585 8071
      3598 8070 3605 8064 3605 8062 3587 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 224DEG 9KT 3584 8067

TDP

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