Alert archive / North Carolina / River Flood Warnings in 2018

River Flood Warning 7, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

May 18, 2018Buncombe County, Henderson County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this river flood warning at May 18, 2018, 7:53 AM EDT for Buncombe County, Henderson County, North Carolina. It took effect at May 18, 2018, 9:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 59 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 18, 2018, 7:53 AM EDT (11:53 UTC)
In effect from
May 18, 2018, 9:00 AM EDT
Expired
May 20, 2018, 8:24 PM EDT
In force
59 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Buncombe County, NC, Henderson County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point French Broad River at Old Fanning Bridge Rd, 3 W Fletcher (FLCN7). The gauge peaked at 15.29 ft at May 19, 2018, 9:00 AM EDT.

actionminormoderate101505/1805/1905/2005/2105/22
Action stage
10 ft
Minor stage
13 ft
Moderate stage
17 ft
Major stage
20 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 03447687, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

816 
WGUS42 KGSP 181153
FLWGSP

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
753 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg
has issued a Flood Warning for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...


  French Broad River Near Fletcher affecting Buncombe and Henderson 
  Counties


.Runoff from heavy rain will cause the river to rise above flood 
stage.
 Remember...river stage forecasts are based on observed and 
forecasted rainfall. If actual rainfall varies from the forecast 
values...the river stage will vary accordingly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember...night time makes 
it difficult to recognize flooded areas.

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

 Please report high water...flooding and landslides to the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...8 0
0...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or by posting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
the specific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC021-089-191153-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FL.W.0007.180518T1300Z-180519T1800Z/
/FLCN7.1.ER.180518T1300Z.180518T1800Z.180519T0600Z.NO/
753 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the French Broad River Near Fletcher.
* until Saturday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:45 AM Friday the stage was 12.8 feet
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by late this morning and continue
  to rise to near 13.5 feet by this afternoon.the river will fall 
  below flood stage by early Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Minor Flood Stage.  French Broad River 
  floodwaters are now inundating Banner Farm Rd.  Floodwaters may be 
  approaching portions of Glenn Bridge Rd.  Farmland and other 
  low-lying areas within the French Broad River Valley from Etowah to
  Avery Creek are experiencing scattered flooding.  Glenn Bridge Park
  and river access is experiencing scattered flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3541 8257 3550 8262 3550 8254 3540 8250
      3537 8250             

$$

CARROLL
6 follow-up statements
036 
WGUS82 KGSP 190150
FLSGSP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
950 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina...


  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Henderson and Transylvania 
  Counties.
  French Broad River Near Fletcher affecting Buncombe and Henderson 
  Counties.

 
.Runoff from previous heavy rain will result in the river remaining 
above flood stage.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

 Please report high water...flooding and landslides to the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...8 0
0...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or by posting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
the specific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC089-175-200149-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180521T1030Z/
/BLAN7.3.ER.180516T2235Z.180517T1446Z.180521T0430Z.NO/
950 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* until Monday morning.
* At  9:16 PM Friday the stage was 18.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Moderate flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is rising again due to this evenings heavy rain 
  in the headwater area. The river is forecast to crest at 18.9 
  feet Saturday morning. The river will then slowly fall over the 
  weekend but not fall below the flood stage of 16 feet until 
  Monday morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Minor Flooding continues. Widespread 
  farmland flooding between the French Broad River and the railroad 
  tracks is ongoing.  The river may be overtopping the railroad 
  tracks near Fodderstack Mountain Rd. and River Ridge Rd.  The 
  intersection of River Rd. and Big Willow Rd. is inundated with 
  several inches of water.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

NCC021-089-200149-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180520T0300Z/
/FLCN7.1.ER.180518T1315Z.180518T2330Z.180519T1500Z.NO/
950 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River Near Fletcher.
* until Saturday evening.
* At  9:30 PM Friday the stage was 13.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will remain around 13.5 feet for much of 
  Saturday morning but forecast to fall below flood stage late 
  Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Minor Flood Stage.  French Broad River 
  floodwaters are now inundating Banner Farm Rd.  Floodwaters may be 
  approaching portions of Glenn Bridge Rd.  Farmland and other 
  low-lying areas within the French Broad River Valley from Etowah to
  Avery Creek are experiencing scattered flooding.  Glenn Bridge Park
  and river access is experiencing scattered flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3541 8257 3550 8262 3550 8254 3540 8250
      3537 8250             

$$

OUTLAW
200 
WGUS82 KGSP 190634
FLSGSP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
234 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina...


  French Broad River Near Fletcher affecting Buncombe and Henderson 
  Counties.

  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Henderson and Transylvania 
  Counties.

.Runoff from previous heavy rain will result in the river remaining 
above flood stage.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

 Please report high water...flooding and landslides to the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...8 0
0...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or by posting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
the specific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC089-175-200635-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180521T1030Z/
/BLAN7.3.ER.180516T2235Z.180517T1446Z.180521T0430Z.NO/
234 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* until Monday morning.
* At  2 AM Saturday the stage was 18.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Moderate flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue rising to near 18.9 feet by this
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage early Monday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Minor Flooding continues. Widespread 
  farmland flooding between the French Broad River and the railroad 
  tracks is ongoing.  The river may be overtopping the railroad 
  tracks near Fodderstack Mountain Rd. and River Ridge Rd.  The 
  intersection of River Rd. and Big Willow Rd. is inundated with 
  several inches of water.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

NCC021-089-200635-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180520T1251Z/
/FLCN7.1.ER.180518T1315Z.180519T0615Z.180520T0051Z.NO/
234 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River Near Fletcher.
* until Sunday morning.
* At  2:15 AM Saturday the stage was 14.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  this evening.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Minor Flood Stage.  French Broad River 
  floodwaters are now inundating Banner Farm Rd.  Floodwaters may be 
  approaching portions of Glenn Bridge Rd.  Farmland and other 
  low-lying areas within the French Broad River Valley from Etowah to
  Avery Creek are experiencing scattered flooding.  Glenn Bridge Park
  and river access is experiencing scattered flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3541 8257 3550 8262 3550 8254 3540 8250
      3537 8250             

$$
046 
WGUS82 KGSP 191426
FLSGSP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1026 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina...


  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Henderson and Transylvania 
  Counties.
  French Broad River Near Fletcher affecting Buncombe and Henderson 
  Counties.
 
.Runoff from previous heavy rain will result in the river remaining 
above flood stage.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

 Please report high water...flooding and landslides to the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...8 0
0...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or by posting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
the specific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC089-175-201425-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180520T2136Z/
/BLAN7.3.ER.180516T2235Z.180517T1446Z.180520T1536Z.NO/
1026 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At 10:16 AM Saturday the stage was 18.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  late Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Minor Flooding continues. Widespread 
  farmland flooding between the French Broad River and the railroad 
  tracks is ongoing.  The river may be overtopping the railroad 
  tracks near Fodderstack Mountain Rd. and River Ridge Rd.  The 
  intersection of River Rd. and Big Willow Rd. is inundated with 
  several inches of water.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

NCC021-089-201425-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180521T0036Z/
/FLCN7.1.ER.180518T1315Z.180519T1800Z.180520T1236Z.NO/
1026 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River Near Fletcher.
* until Sunday evening.
...Flood Warning extended until Sunday evening...* At 10:15 AM Saturday the stage was 15.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue rising to near 15.5 feet by this
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Minor Flooding continues.  French Broad 
  River floodwaters may be impacting several roads within the valley,
  resulting in road closures including along Glenn Bridge Rd., Pinner
  Rd., Butler Bridge Rd., Nelson Rd., Banner Farm Rd., Brannon Rd., 
  Old Brevard Hwy., and Ladson Rd.  Widespread farmland flooding is 
  ongoing with floodwaters impacting some residential and commercial 
  property and outbuildings.  Adjacent parks and river access points 
  along the reach of the river are experiencing significant 
  inundation.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3541 8257 3550 8262 3550 8254 3540 8250
      3537 8250             

$$

Krentz
960 
WGUS82 KGSP 200048
FLSGSP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
848 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina...

  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Henderson and Transylvania 
  Counties.
  French Broad River Near Fletcher affecting Buncombe and Henderson 
  Counties.

.The river has crested and levels will continue to fall through Sunday.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

 Please report high water...flooding and landslides to the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...8 0
0...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or by posting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
the specific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC089-175-210047-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180521T0936Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.180516T2235Z.180517T1446Z.180521T0336Z.NO/
848 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* until late Sunday night.
* At 8:30 PM Saturday the stage was 17.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will fall to below flood stage by 
  late evening Sunday.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor Flooding continues.  Floodwaters 
  continue to inundate farmland between the French Broad River and 
  the railroad tracks. Floodwaters may start to inundate the 
  shoulders of River Road near the Big Willow Road intersection. 
  Floodwaters continue to impact boat access areas at Grove Bridge 
  and Crab Creek Roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

NCC021-089-210047-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180521T0815Z/
/FLCN7.1.ER.180518T1315Z.180519T1330Z.180520T2015Z.NO/
848 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River Near Fletcher.
* until late Sunday night.
* At 8:30 PM Saturday the stage was 15.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will fall to below flood stage by 
  Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Minor Flooding continues.  French Broad 
  River floodwaters may be impacting several roads within the valley,
  resulting in road closures including along Glenn Bridge, Pinner,
  Butler Bridge, Nelson, Banner Farm, Brannon, and Ladson Roads, plus
  Old Brevard Highway. Widespread farmland flooding is ongoing with
  floodwaters impacting some residential and commercial property and
  outbuildings.  Adjacent parks and river access points 
  along the reach of the river are experiencing significant 
  inundation.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3541 8257 3550 8262 3550 8254 3540 8250
      3537 8250             

$$
096 
WGUS82 KGSP 201557
FLSGSP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1157 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina...


  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Henderson and Transylvania 
  Counties.
  French Broad River Near Fletcher affecting Buncombe and Henderson 
  Counties.

 
.Runoff from previous heavy rain has worked its way further 
downstream thus...the river will continue to fall slowly.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

 Please report high water...flooding and landslides to the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...8 0
0...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or by posting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
the specific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC089-175-211556-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180521T2000Z/
/BLAN7.3.ER.180516T2235Z.180517T1446Z.180521T1400Z.NO/
1157 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* until Monday afternoon.
* At 11:46 AM Sunday the stage was 17.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue falling slowly this
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor Flooding continues.  Floodwaters 
  continue to inundate farmland between the French Broad River and 
  the railroad tracks. Floodwaters may start to inundate the 
  shoulders of River Road near the Big Willow Road intersection. 
  Floodwaters continue to impact boat access areas at Grove Bridge 
  Rd and Crab Creek Rd.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

NCC021-089-211556-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180521T2200Z/
/FLCN7.1.ER.180518T1315Z.180519T1330Z.180521T1000Z.NO/
1157 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River Near Fletcher.
* until Monday evening.
* At 11:45 AM Sunday the stage was 13.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue falling slowly this
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Minor Flood Stage.  French Broad River 
  floodwaters are now inundating Banner Farm Rd.  Floodwaters may be 
  approaching portions of Glenn Bridge Rd.  Farmland and other 
  low-lying areas within the French Broad River Valley from Etowah to
  Avery Creek are experiencing scattered flooding.  Glenn Bridge Park
  and river access is experiencing scattered flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3541 8257 3550 8262 3550 8254 3540 8250
      3537 8250             

$$
380 
WGUS82 KGSP 210024
FLSGSP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
824 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in North Carolina...


  French Broad River Near Fletcher affecting Buncombe and Henderson 
  Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina...


  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Henderson and Transylvania 
  Counties.

.Runoff from previous heavy rain has worked its way further 
downstream thus...the river will continue to fall slowly.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

 Please report high water...flooding and landslides to the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...8 0
0...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or by posting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
the specific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC089-175-211312-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180521T1312Z/
/BLAN7.3.ER.180516T2235Z.180517T1446Z.180521T0712Z.NO/
824 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* until Monday morning.
* At  8:16 PM Sunday the stage was 16.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Minor Flood Stage. Farmland flooding 
  continues on both sides of the French Broad River. Floodwaters 
  begin to impact boat access areas at Grove Bridge Rd. and Crab 
  Creek Rd.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

NCC021-089-210054-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180521T2200Z/
/FLCN7.1.ER.180518T1315Z.180519T1330Z.180520T1747Z.NO/
824 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The French Broad River Near Fletcher.
* At  8:15 PM Sunday the stage was 12.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  1:47 PM Sunday.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall to 10.2 feet by Tuesday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Legacy Action Stage.  Glenn Bridge Park 
  river access is experiencing minor flooding.  Westfeldt Park is 
  experiencing scattered flooding.  French Broad River floodwaters 
  are causing isolated to widely scattered farmland flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3541 8257 3550 8262 3550 8254 3540 8250
      3537 8250             

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 18, 6:53 AM EDT, 1 hour earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 18, 6:53 AM EDT, 1 hour before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
653 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will linger
into Saturday as a slow moving low pressure system impacts our
region. Locally heavy rainfall remains possible until the low
departs. High temperatures will be near normal and low
temperatures about ten degrees above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 635 AM EDT Friday: We've seen a minor decrease in shower
coverage since the past update a few hours ago, with most of the
activity still moving across Western NC. A Flash Flood Watch remains
in affect for portions of the Blue Ridge and Escarpment thru 8 AM
this morning. Otherwise, ample cloud cover will keep low
temperatures well above normal this morning. Tropical-like dewpoints
will keep RH values near 100% across most of the fcst area thru the
morning. The moist air coupled with light winds should allow areas
of fog and low cigs to develop across the CWFA. Later today an upper
low will begin to swing towards the western fringe of the fcst area.
This should place us in an area of favorable QG ascent, along with
the persistent southerly upslope flow induced by the Bermuda High.
Moderate instability  (currently estimated at 1250-1700 J/kg) is
likely again today, with widespread convection anticipated. 850mb
flow will be a bit more stout producing marginally better low-lvl
shear, thus isolated strong storms with gusty winds and small hail
appear more likely today than they have any day this week. Max
temperatures will be near normal with values near 80 over the lower
elevations and low 70s to upper 70s across the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Friday: Upper low that has been causing all the
problems the past couple of days will be lifting north into the
Midwest, slowly being absorbed by the longwave pattern, but with a
negatively-tilted axis stretching toward the Deep South. Upper ridge
over the western Atlantic will keep the moisture fetch over the
eastern Carolinas, but low-level southerly upslope flow with copious
boundary-layer moisture will continue to bring widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms to the area, with likely pops continuing
on Saturday until the trough axis pushes through. Thicknesses will
slowly rise on Sunday as the trough continues to damp, and the
Atlantic upper ridge begins to retrograde slightly and merge with
the shortwave ridge pushing from the MS Valley toward the
Appalachians. Still should see a decent plume of tropical moisture
spreading north from FL to the Carolina coast, which will line up
with the eastward-moving upper trough and associated surface
reflection that sill set up over the Piedmont, and with a bit of an
upper weakness remaining in place over south GA expect another round
of at least scattered convection to develop on Sunday. The Piedmont
surface trough will remain in place through the end of the period
with continued low-level WAA in the SW winds.

Occasional heavy rain will continue to be a concern, especially with
saturated soils specifically across the Blue Ridge. Storm total QPF
through the period will generally be about a half inch, with of
course typical higher amounts in the upslope areas, so it would
really be a concern in any afternoon convection. With the slightly
drier air aloft and a continued increase in SBCAPE values (possibly
over 2500J/kg across portions of the Piedmont by Sunday), threat for
isolated severe storms will increase as well, though dCAPE values
remain modest. Should see a minor increase in temperatures from
Saturday to Sunday, from near normal to a couple of degrees
above.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2 am Friday: The medium range begins at 12Z Monday with the
500mb pattern showing a ridge over the SE States and a weak low over
the Florida panhandle area. High precipitable water values remain
over our region into the later part of the week.  A short wave
should move SE across the Great Lakes in mid week which will push a
cold front a bit more south across the Ohio Valley. This front
should stall out just north of our area on Thursday while keeping
our region in the soupy airmass. The best instability looks to be
on Thursday afternoon with the front just north. CAPE values on the
GFS are around 1500 over NE GA and Upstate SC Thursday PM. After
Thursday the upper trough pulls out to the east with the ridge over
the nations mid section building east. At the end of the current
forecast which is 12Z Friday, the next big feature is the tropical
low crossing Cuba. The GFS and EC are in very good agreement to take
this low to south GA Sunday May 27.  This will have to be watched
closely.

With the high moisture levels, max temps will be held to near normal
and min temps around 8 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: No significant changes were warranted from
the previous fcst. Still expecting a combination of VFR conditions
with periods of MVFR/IFR visby and cigs this morning and thru the
day and evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
to move across the area thru the TAF period and well beyond. The
latest CAM guidance has better precip coverage across the northern
half of the fcst area thru the late morning hours. Coverage becomes
more widespread this afternoon and evening. I kept VCSH and SHRA in
the TAFs through the overnight period and into the morning, with
periods of fog and low cigs for the morning hours. East to Southeast
winds will become more Southerly by the afternoon and pick up in
speed a bit with occasional gusts possible under any convection.

Outlook: Unsettled weather will continue through the end of the work
week, with isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA throughout the day/night
periods and deteriorating restrictions at times. Over the weekend,
precipitation is expected to return to a more typical afternoon and
evening occurrence.

Confidence Table...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       High  81%     High  83%     Med   78%     Med   78%
KGSP       Med   75%     Med   78%     High  89%     Med   68%
KAVL       Med   75%     High  89%     Med   78%     High  85%
KHKY       Med   75%     Med   64%     Low   58%     Med   75%
KGMU       Med   75%     High  89%     Med   66%     Med   75%
KAND       High  87%     High  83%     High  94%     High  85%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for GAZ010.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ033-049-
     050-053-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JPT
Hazardous weather outlook, May 18, 5:18 AM EDT, 2 hours 35 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
518 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-048-051-052-056>059-068>072-082-
502-504-506-508-510-SCZ004>014-019-190930-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
518 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-NCZ033-049-050-053-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001>003-
190930-
Rabun-Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
518 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 17, 8:21 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPHenderson, Transylvania24 min
May 17, 8:52 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPMcDowell3 hr
May 17, 9:02 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPBuncombe, Henderson, Transylvania118 min
May 17, 9:20 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPBuncombe99 min
May 17, 9:37 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPHenderson, Transylvania4 hr
May 17, 9:53 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPBuncombe52 min
May 17, 10:02 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPAvery, Burke, Caldwell3 hr
May 17, 10:08 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPBuncombe, Haywood, Yancey3 hr
May 17, 10:32 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPJackson, Macon, Transylvania3 hr
May 17, 11:51 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPGraham, Madison, Swain84 min
May 18, 1:38 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPHenderson, Transylvania6 hr
May 18, 3:05 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPHenderson, Transylvania12 hr
May 18, 5:05 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPJackson, Macon6 hr
May 18, 8:14 AM EDTRiver Flood AdvisoryGSPBuncombe28 hr
May 18, 9:46 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPIredell6 hr
May 18, 10:08 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPBurke, Rutherford5 hr
May 18, 10:09 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCatawba51 min
May 18, 10:31 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPAvery, Caldwell4 hr
May 18, 10:37 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCatawba3 hr
May 18, 11:07 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAlexander, Catawba, Lincoln53 min
May 18, 11:17 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCaldwell58 min
May 18, 2:48 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPTransylvania19 hr
May 18, 3:06 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPAvery, Burke, Caldwell5 hr
May 18, 3:44 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPDavie, Iredell3 hr
May 18, 3:50 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPAvery, Caldwell7 hr
May 18, 4:13 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPRutherford32 min
May 18, 4:29 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPBurke, McDowell4 hr
May 18, 4:42 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPDavie3 hr
May 18, 4:49 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPRutherford116 min
May 18, 5:38 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPRutherford6 hr
May 18, 6:28 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPPolk, Rutherford2 hr
May 18, 7:16 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPPolk, Rutherford3 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2018Every river flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.