Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

197 
WGUS52 KGSP 190024
FFWGSP
NCC161-190330-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-180519T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
824 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended
the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Rutherford County in western North Carolina...

* Until 1130 PM EDT.

* At 821 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated redeveloping showers and 
  thunderstorms across Rutherford County producing very heavy 
  rainfall at rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. These showers were 
  affecting areas that have already received 2 to 3 inches of rain 
  in the past six hours, plus more in previous days. Flash flooding 
  will likely develop quickly or worsen this evening. 

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Rutherfordton, Spindale, Shingle Hollow, Green Hill, Thermal City, 
  Union Mills and Forest City. Flooding will most likely develop 
  along tributaries to the Upper Broad River around Union Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross
water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few
inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is 
not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Be especially 
cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of 
flooding.

When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides
flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on
our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message
should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and
other landmarks.

&&

LAT...LON 3522 8196 3526 8197 3527 8200 3533 8205
      3534 8208 3540 8213 3554 8208 3554 8203
      3555 8200 3552 8197 3554 8185 3558 8182
      3558 8180 3559 8179 3560 8177 3561 8176
      3560 8176

$$

HG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
239 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will linger
into Saturday as a slow moving low pressure system impacts our
region. Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible until the low
departs. High temperatures will be near to just above normal and low
temperatures about ten degrees above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A broad upper level trof continues to spin across the South
maintaining deep and moist s/ly flow into the FA. This pattern will
change little during the period...with some n/ly lift expected by
Sat afternoon. Very little change is fcst/d in pwat values which are
running abv seasonal levels. With decent diff heating and tall
skinny CAPE...low-top convection has spawned a few short-lived
general tstms. These cells are generally moving to the north arnd 20
mph...however some anchoring is noted across the srn BR where there
could be isol new hydro issues over the next couple hrs. The FF.A
still looks good as the best precip amts will generally fall across
the higher terrain this afternoon and into the evening. The hi-res
guidance shows a decreasing chance of activity across the piedmont
this afternoon and this makes sense with convg zones noted upstream
over cent GA and the Midlands.

Hydro-wise...the advisories and warnings look to be in good shape as
runoff from earlier precip continues in an expected fashion. Will
expect less thunder chances overnight...yet still a high PoP -shra
thru the morning with a continued hydro threat across the srn BR.
Thunderstorms will once again be possible by mid-day Sat within a
persistent and high confidence synoptic pattern. Mins overnight will
be held abt 10 degrees F abv normal with widespread low cloud cover.
Maxes Sat will be right arnd normal and with high sfc td/s it will
feel rather muggy once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Friday: Subtropical anticyclone remains anchored
off the Southeast Atlantic coast throughout the period. Another
upper low, although weaker and not well defined, will move out of
the Gulf of Mexico into the Gulf coast states by Monday. These
features keep a moist south to southwest low level flow across the
area each day. The good news is the deep tropical moisture fetch
will not return during this period. However, instability will
increase each day, along with decent upper divergence, keeping the
threat of mainly diurnal convection in place. Greatest coverage
continues to be across the mountains both days with high end
scattered coverage elsewhere. Shear is relatively weak both days,
but surface delta theta-e values increase with steadily drying mid
levels. This leads to an increasing threat of severe thunderstorms
each day, but these should remain isolated as overall DCAPE values
remain on the low side. Heavy rain is possible but the threat is not
as widespread as in previous days. Still, the wet antecedent
conditions could make flooding possible with lower rainfall amounts.
Highs will be nearly steady around 5 degrees above normal. Lows will
be nearly steady as well but around 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday: Still little airmass change expected as the
medium range begins Monday night. Models are generally plagued by
disagreement in the finer details of the forecast, which
unfortunately make all the difference in a nebulous pattern like the
present one. A Bermuda high will remain off the east coast in the
Atlantic (welcome to summertime), with the southeast on the northern
periphery of an upper subtropical high. Some type of surface
stationary boundary will likely be laid over the Carolinas through
much of the next work week with little progression out of the area
expected. The GFS does spin up an upper/surface low over the
northern Gulf and swing it up towards our area Wednesday, but that
is likely an artifact of a known convective feedback problem in the
GFS (the parallel FV3 core has it too while the low is absent on all
other global models, suggesting this is a GFS model physics issue).
I've therefore favored the ECMWF through much of the medium range.

As far as sensible weather, the Bermuda high will induce weak
southerly flow over the area, though it is not as persistent our
stout as it has been over the past week. PWATs will remain elevated,
but in the absence of much large-scale forcing, a mostly diurnal
pattern favoring afternoon showers and thunderstorms will persist
through next week. Shower and thunderstorm coverage should be
decreased from this week, and chances of any flooding or severe
storms do not stand out any particular day next week at the moment.
The pattern we will enter into next week looks distinctly summer-
ish, as a matter of fact, just with a bit more moisture than usual
to work with. Max temperatures will increase a little to just above
average, with lows remaining about 10 degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A highly moist airmass will continue to lift
across the area thru the period. This will create widespread -shra
and perhaps a few short-lived general tstms at times. CIGs will
remain VFR to MVFR this afternoon all sites...then drop overnight
into more widespread MVFR with IFR likely over most terminals arnd
daybreak. Thunder activity shud wane overnight with increasing
chances by late morning.

Outlook: Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend with
isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA throughout the day/night periods and
deteriorating restrictions at times.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High  87%     Med   77%     High  86%     High  91%
KGSP       High  90%     High  83%     High  80%     High  93%
KAVL       High  88%     High  84%     High  81%     High  92%
KHKY       High  83%     High  82%     High  90%     High  90%
KGMU       High  92%     High  88%     High  88%     High  92%
KAND       High  95%     High  86%     Med   71%     High  90%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033-049-
     050-053-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1009 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-048-051-052-056>059-068>072-082-
502-504-506-508-510-SCZ004>014-019-191415-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1009 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
today. Slow-moving and training storms may produce torrential
downpours over a short period of time, resulting in localized flash
flooding. In addition to the heavy rain potential, cloud-to-ground
lightning and gusty winds will be possible with stronger storms.
Gusty winds could blow down a few trees due to very wet or saturated
soils.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of flash
flooding to our office.

GAZ010-NCZ033-049-050-053-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001>003-
191415-
Rabun-Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
1009 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition to the flooding potential, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible. These storms could produce cloud to
ground lightning, gusty winds, and an enhanced threat of heavy or
excessive rainfall. Gusty winds could blow down a few trees due to
very wet or saturated soils.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of flash
flooding to our office.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     FLOOD            2 WSW ASHEVILLE         35.57N 82.58W
05/18/2018                   BUNCOMBE           NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CARRIER PARK IN ASHEVILLE ON THE FRENCH BROAD IS FLOODED.

&&

LVISIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     FLOOD            1 WSW ASHEVILLE         35.57N 82.57W
05/18/2018                   BUNCOMBE           NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FRENCH BROAD RIVER PARK IN ASHEVILLE IS FLOODED.

&&

LVISIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
413 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

NCZ504-506-508-182045-
Greater Rutherford NC-Greater Burke NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
413 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN
MCDOWELL...NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 411 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a series of heavy rain
producing showers and thunderstorms developing about miles north of
Rutherfordton, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rutherfordton, Forest City, Lake James State Park, Spindale, Lake
James, South Mountains State Park, Nebo, Green Hill, Thermal City and
Glenwood.

Wind gusts up to 35 mph and very heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas. Expect deep ponding
of water in low-lying areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3535 8186 3539 8209 3575 8196 3567 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 208DEG 12KT 3550 8192

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
449 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

GAZ029-SCZ011-182130-
Elbert GA-Abbeville SC-
449 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ELBERT AND
SOUTHWESTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 448 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles northeast of Washington, or near Bobby Brown State Park, moving
north at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Calhoun Falls, Lowndesville, Nancy Hart State Park, Bobby Brown State
Park, Middleton, Lake Strom Thurmond, Russell State Park, Lake
Russell, Fortsonia and Rice Town.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3398 8261 3397 8264 3399 8265 3397 8278
      3399 8283 3398 8286 3400 8288 3421 8274
      3426 8267 3423 8240 3406 8245 3408 8248
      3407 8250 3407 8253 3401 8260 3399 8258
      3396 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 186DEG 16KT 3396 8260

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
514 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

GAZ028-029-SCZ010-011-182145-
Elbert GA-Hart GA-Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-
514 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL
ELBERT...EASTERN HART...SOUTHERN ANDERSON AND CENTRAL ABBEVILLE
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 513 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms with torrential
rainfall along a line extending from 5 miles northeast of Elberton to
17 miles southeast of Hartwell to 10 miles west of Abbeville, and
moving north at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Hartwell, Elberton, Homeland Park, Reed Creek, Iva, Lake
Secession, Starr, Lowndesville and Anderson Airport.

Wind gusts up to 35 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas. Flooding of
low-lying and poor drainage areas may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3414 8269 3410 8291 3447 8294 3452 8263
      3443 8235 3408 8249 3407 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 186DEG 22KT 3417 8282 3420 8269 3416 8256

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
527 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE SHEFFIELD         36.00N 80.67W
05/18/2018                   DAVIE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            BEAR CREEK ROAD FLOODED AND CLOSED.

0510 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WNW FARMINGTON        36.04N 80.61W
05/18/2018                   DAVIE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            FOUR CORNERS RD FLOODED AND CLOSED.

&&