River Flood Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

104 
WGUS42 KGSP 110843
FLWGSP

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
343 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

in North Carolina...
  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Henderson and Transylvania
  Counties


.Runoff from heavy rain will cause the river to rise above flood 
stage.
 Remember...river stage forecasts are based on observed and 
forecasted rainfall. If actual rainfall varies from the forecast 
values...the river stage will vary accordingly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember...night time makes 
it difficult to recognize flooded areas.

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

 Please report high water...flooding and landslides to the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...8 0
0...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or by posting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
the specific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC089-175-120842-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0002.180211T1220Z-180214T0430Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.180211T1220Z.180212T0600Z.180213T2230Z.NO/
343 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* from this morning to Tuesday evening...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  3:30 AM Sunday the stage was 14.0 feet
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by this morning and continue to 
  rise to near 18.5 feet by early Monday morning.the river will fall 
  below flood stage by Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Minor Flooding continues. Widespread 
  farmland flooding between the French Broad River and the railroad 
  tracks is ongoing.  The river may be overtopping the railroad 
  tracks near Fodderstack Mountain Rd. and River Ridge Rd.  The 
  intersection of River Rd. and Big Willow Rd. is inundated with 
  several inches of water.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

157 
WGUS42 KGSP 112101
FLWGSP

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
401 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

...The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg
has extended the Flood Warning for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  FRENCH BROAD RIVER At BLANTYRE affecting Henderson and 
  Transylvania Counties

Storm-total rainfall of 3-4 inches in the upper French Broad 
watershed has generated significant runoff and caused resultant
rises along the Little River and the French Broad River near the 
Cascade Lake, Penrose, Brevard, and Blantyre communities.  The 
heaviest rainfall has already occurred with up to an additional 
inch of rainfall possible through the evening hours.  This should
not have a significant impact on the French Broad River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember...night time makes 
it difficult to recognize flooded areas.

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

 Please report high water...flooding and landslides to the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...8 0
0...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or by posting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
the specific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC089-175-122100-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180213T0925Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.180211T1935Z.180212T1200Z.180213T0325Z.NO/
401 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* At 3:46 PM Sunday the stage was 16.1 feet and rising moderately.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue rising to near 17.0 feet by 
  Monday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Monday late 
  evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor Flooding continues.  Floodwaters 
  continue to inundate farmland between the French Broad River and 
  the railroad tracks. Floodwaters may start to inundate the 
  shoulders of River Road near the Big Willow Road intersection.
  Floodwaters continue to impact boat access areas at Grove Bridge Rd. 
  and Crab Creek Rd.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

JMP

145 
WGUS82 KGSP 120801
FLSGSP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
301 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in North Carolina...


  Tuckasegee River At Bryson City affecting Swain County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina...


  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Henderson and Transylvania 
  Counties.

 
.Runoff from previous heavy rain will result in the river remaining 
above flood stage.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

 Please report high water...flooding and landslides to the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...8 0
0...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or by posting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
the specific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC089-175-130800-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180213T0945Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.180211T1935Z.180212T0746Z.180213T0345Z.NO/
301 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* until late tonight.
...Flood Warning extended until late tonight...* At  2:46 AM Monday the stage was 17.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tonight.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor Flooding continues.  Floodwaters 
  continue to inundate farmland between the French Broad River and 
  the railroad tracks. Floodwaters may start to inundate the 
  shoulders of River Road near the Big Willow Road intersection. 
  Floodwaters continue to impact boat access areas at Grove Bridge 
  Rd. and Crab Creek Rd.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

NCC173-120831-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180212T0920Z/
/TKSN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
301 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Tuckasegee River At Bryson City.
* At  2:46 AM Monday the stage was 7.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river crested just below flood stage at 10.0 feet. The 
  river will fall to 4.9 feet by Tuesday morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3547 8339 3543 8339 3541 8348 3544 8348 3544 8342


$$

167 
WGUS82 KGSP 121109
FLSGSP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
609 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina...


  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Henderson and Transylvania 
  Counties.
 
.Runoff from previous heavy rain will result in the river remaining 
above flood stage.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

 Please report high water...flooding and landslides to the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...8 0
0...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or by posting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
the specific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC089-175-131109-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180213T1120Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.180211T1935Z.180212T1200Z.180213T0520Z.NO/
609 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* until Tuesday morning.
* At  5:46 AM Monday the stage was 17.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue rising to near 17.4 feet by this
  morning. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor Flooding continues.  Floodwaters 
  continue to inundate farmland between the French Broad River and 
  the railroad tracks. Floodwaters may start to inundate the 
  shoulders of River Road near the Big Willow Road intersection. 
  Floodwaters continue to impact boat access areas at Grove Bridge 
  Rd. and Crab Creek Rd.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

398 
WGUS82 KGSP 130116
FLSGSP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
816 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina...


  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Henderson and Transylvania 
  Counties.
 
.Runoff from previous heavy rain will result in the river remaining 
above flood stage.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

 Please report high water...flooding and landslides to the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...8 0
0...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or by posting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
the specific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC089-175-140116-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180215T0834Z/
/BLAN7.3.ER.180211T1935Z.180212T1915Z.180215T0234Z.NO/
816 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* until late Wednesday night.
* At  7:46 PM Monday the stage was 17.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue rising to near 18.1 feet by 
  Tuesday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday 
  night.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Minor Flooding continues. Widespread 
  farmland flooding between the French Broad River and the railroad 
  tracks is ongoing.  The river may be overtopping the railroad 
  tracks near Fodderstack Mountain Rd. and River Ridge Rd.  The 
  intersection of River Rd. and Big Willow Rd. is inundated with 
  several inches of water.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

537 
WGUS82 KGSP 131249
FLSGSP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
749 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina...

  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Henderson and Transylvania 
  Counties.

.Runoff from previous heavy rain will result in the river remaining 
above flood stage.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

 Please report high water...flooding and landslides to the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...8 0
0...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or by posting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
the specific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC089-175-141249-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180215T0834Z/
/BLAN7.3.ER.180211T1935Z.180212T1915Z.180215T0234Z.NO/
749 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* until late Wednesday night.
* At 7:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 17.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is expected to continue.
* Forecast...the river will continue rising to near 18.0 feet by this
  afternoon. Additional rises may be possible thereafter. The river is 
  expected to fall below flood stage Wednesday night.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Minor Flooding continues. Widespread 
  farmland flooding between the French Broad River and the railroad 
  tracks is ongoing.  The river may be overtopping the railroad 
  tracks near Fodderstack Mountain Rd. and River Ridge Rd.  The 
  intersection of River Rd. and Big Willow Rd. is inundated with 
  several inches of water.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

JPT

992 
WGUS82 KGSP 131838
FLSGSP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
138 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina...

  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Henderson and Transylvania 
  Counties.

.Runoff from previous heavy rain will result in the river remaining 
above flood stage.
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

 Please report high water...flooding and landslides to the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...8 0
0...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or by posting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
the specific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC089-175-141838-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180215T0834Z/
/BLAN7.3.ER.180211T1935Z.180212T1915Z.180215T0234Z.NO/
138 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* until late Wednesday night.
* At 1:16 PM Tuesday the stage was 17.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is expected to continue.
* Forecast...the river will gradually fall to below flood stage by 
  late Wednesday evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor Flooding continues.  Floodwaters 
  continue to inundate farmland between the French Broad River and 
  the railroad tracks. Floodwaters may start to inundate the 
  shoulders of River Road near the Big Willow Road intersection. 
  Floodwaters continue to impact boat access areas at Grove Bridge 
  Rd. and Crab Creek Rd.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

JPT

962 
WGUS82 KGSP 140105
FLSGSP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
805 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina...


  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Henderson and Transylvania 
  Counties.

 
.Runoff from previous heavy rain will result in the river remaining 
above flood stage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

 Please report high water...flooding and landslides to the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...8 0
0...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or by posting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
the specific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC089-175-150104-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180215T0742Z/
/BLAN7.3.ER.180211T1935Z.180212T1915Z.180215T0142Z.NO/
805 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* until late Wednesday night.
* At  7:46 PM Tuesday the stage was 17.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Wednesday evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor Flooding continues.  Floodwaters 
  continue to inundate farmland between the French Broad River and 
  the railroad tracks. Floodwaters may start to inundate the 
  shoulders of River Road near the Big Willow Road intersection. 
  Floodwaters continue to impact boat access areas at Grove Bridge 
  Rd. and Crab Creek Rd.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

752 
WGUS82 KGSP 141944
FLSGSP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
244 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in North Carolina...


  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Henderson and Transylvania 
  Counties.

.Runoff from previous heavy rain has worked its way further 
downstream thus...the river will continue to fall slowly.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

 Please report high water...flooding and landslides to the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...8 0
0...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or by posting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
the specific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC089-175-142014-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180215T0742Z/
/BLAN7.3.ER.180211T1935Z.180212T1915Z.180214T1601Z.NO/
244 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* At 2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at 11:01 AM Wednesday.
* Forecast...the river will continue to fall to 13.6 feet by Thursday
  morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Action Stage. Most farm fields are 
  flooding between the French Broad River and Brevard Rd and 
  between the French Broad River and Pleasant Grove Rd.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

JPT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1042 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong southerly flow continues to transport deep Gulf moisture
over the region through Sunday as a slow-moving cold front
approaches eastern Tennessee. Heavy rainfall is likely as the
front approaches the mountains tonight and Sunday. Precipitation
chances will continue into the early part of the work week as the
front is slow to depart the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1030 PM EST: The southern Appalachians are still on the
eastern edge of a large rain shield that extends from the Mid-
Atlantic to the central Gulf. Meanwhile, a TMB/wedge front is
slowly lifting north across the Piedmont, and seems to be a
focus for some intense showers. They are small and moving enough
that they shouldn't pose any excessive rain concern. Rain is
adding up in the SW Mountains, with gauges reporting 1-2" in the
last 24 hours. Stream gauges are beginning to rise, but are not
approaching flood stage at this time. See Hydrology section
below for more information.

So with all that said, the forecast is on track, and only minor
adjustments were made.

The overnight continues with light to moderate rain as a frontal
zone approaches from the west and keeps deep sw/ly flow aligned over
the FA thru the near term. A good connection to GOM and even Pac
moisture is noted in Sat loops which have increased PWATS to well
abv normal levels. There will be periods of upper vort energy
crossing the area throughout the night and into tomorrow which will
enhance precip rates and aide in producing deep convective cells.
In fact...soundings indicate a measure of elCAPE increasing
overnight with sbCAPE developing tomorrow as sfc temps rise abt 10
degrees abv normal in continued llvl wwa flow. So...very high amnts
of available moisture will be aided by isent lift and thermo/dyno
forcing. Thus...the flood watch still looks good and will not adj in
placement or time.

As for rainfall amounts...went with ens and op blends as the various
op models have varying ideas with placement and amounts of QPF. The
fcst still favors the SW NC mtns and NE GA where arnd 2-3 inches are
possible thru Sun. The models continue to advance heavier precip
bands east as well over the srn NE GA counties and the Upstate...so
rainfall totals have been bumped up in these areas as well. All in
all...it looks like areas along and north of the I-85 corridor will
receive the brunt of the precip and this will be the area of concern
for flooding issues beginning during the overnight period over the
far wrn zones.

There is a chance of strong to even a couple severe thnderstorms
tomorrow afternoon with differential heating and an increase in
sbCAPE possibly co-joining with stg deep layered shear. A QLCS type
line is not out of the question. Min temps will be non/diurnal with
lows likely occuring at the beginning of the tonight period or 23z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 pm Saturday: The leading edge of a slow-moving frontal
zone should be draped across the southern Appalachians at the start
of the period, with frontal circulation and upper divergence in the
right entrance region of an upper jet max providing the main sources
of lift. Duration-type flooding issues may be ongoing across
portions our mountains to start the period, while lingering weak,
but positive buoyancy could result in scattered thunderstorms/heavy
rain showers, with a potential for localized flash flooding,
especially with any cells training ahead of the boundary and/or
along terrain features. Nevertheless, guidance does not offer any
consensus on the potential for weak surface waves to focus any
organized areas of heavier rainfall Sunday night. Assuming this is
the way events pan out (which would be a rather bold assumption in
this pattern), rainfall outside of any areas of deep convection may
be somewhat muted Sunday night/early Monday.

Pops remain in the likely-to-categorical range through much of
Monday, as the front is not expected to see much forward momentum
through our area until later in the day/Monday night. At that point,
sprawling 1040+ mb surface high pressure building east of the
central and northern Appalachians will allow much cooler/drier air
to funnel southward east of the mtns, pushing the front back-door
style through the forecast area by Tuesday morning. Deeper moisture
will begin shunting south and east of the area by this time,
allowing for a gradually diminishing pop trend such that rain
chances are slight chance at best by the end of Tuesday. However,
ample low level moisture should linger north of the boundary on
Tuesday, resulting in wedge-like conditions, with cloudy skies,
below-normal temperatures and perhaps some pockets of drizzle.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM Saturday: The guidance remains in general agreement
that the upper pattern remains relatively flat and nearly zonal over
the southeastern CONUS keeping stronger northern stream short waves
near the Great Lakes while the center of the subtropical ridge moves
from the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic through the period.
However, there are some detail differences. The GFS is a little
stronger and farther south with a wave that moves through on
Thursday. It is also a little stronger and farther south with a wave
on Saturday. These differences show up at the surface as well. Any
lingering isentropic lift diminishes Tuesday night with diminishing
precip chances and an eroding cold air damming high. A weak cold
front approaches the area Wednesday night and crosses the area on
Thursday on the GFS while the ECMWF keeps it off to the west.
Another cold front approaches the area on Friday on the GFS while
the ECMWF brings keeps the original front in place but shows waves
moving along the front slowly inching it toward the area. The GFS
moves the front into the area Friday night and to the east on
Saturday while the ECMWF brings the front into the area Friday night
but stalls it just to our south as a wave along the front keeps
moisture over the area Saturday with a CAD high building in from the
northeast.

Given these differences, have gone with a model blend for the
forecast. This keeps any small PoP limited to the mountains for
Tuesday night and Wednesday, spreads higher chance PoP across the
area Wednesday night into Thursday, then has varying amounts of low
end chance PoP for Friday and Saturday. Needless to say, this is a
low confidence forecast given the detail differences. Temperatures
remain well above normal through much of the period, but do drop
down toward normal for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Very moist atmosphere in place with
southwesterly upglide flow will continue to keep low cigs and
widespread showers around the area tonight thru Sunday. There is a
boundary setting up just southeast of the Upstate and KCLT sites
that has been drifting north. Some improvement in vsby and cigs may
occur if the boundary manages to cross over the sites. This is in
effect part of a shallow wedge erosion. By daybreak Sunday, guidance
shows all sides on the warm side of the wedge with IFR to MVFR cigs
and generally MVFR to VFR vsby (except in SHRA). There is also a
little more instability Sunday aftn for TS, but confidence is still
too low to mention in the TAF sites for now. Winds are still light
and favoring a NE direction within the wedge, but should turn out of
the S and increase (helping keep vsby up a little). Some gustiness
is expected on Sunday, especially at KCLT. KAVL is tricky due to the
downslope SW flow keeping conditions MVFR. Guidance wants to sock
KAVL back in overnight, partly due to the greatest coverage of
precip expected over the mountains. For now, will prevail MVFR with
tempo IFR.

Outlook: Some worsening of restrictions expected Sunday night, then
improving conditions are expected on Monday. However, moist cold air
damming will likely keep restrictions around into Tuesday.

Confidence Table...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       High  81%     Med   70%     Med   61%     Med   77%
KGSP       Med   70%     High  90%     High  81%     High  80%
KAVL       High  98%     High  98%     Med   72%     High 100%
KHKY       High  92%     Med   72%     Med   68%     High  84%
KGMU       Low   59%     High  85%     High  81%     High  80%
KAND       Med   70%     High  85%     Med   74%     Med   64%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Across the North Carolina mountains, soil moisture values
and streamflows are near normal to above normal across most
of the area, with some exception across the extreme southwest
mountains. However, the somewhat drier antecedent conditions
across the southwest mountains will be quickly overcome by
anticipated rainfall. Reservoir pools are at or above target
levels as well so storage will be limited. Therefore, given the
primed antecedent conditions, runoff will be significant and the
likelihood of isolated to scattered small-stream flooding remains
high, especially across the southwest and southern mountains. Minor
mainstem flooding is most likely across the favored upper reaches
of the French Broad River, and remains possible along the Pigeon,
Nantahala, and Tuckasegee Rivers.  While rainfall tonight will be
very efficient given near-record moisture content, heavy rainfall
totals will occur over a time period generally not conducive to
flash flooding, which occurs within 6-hours from rainfall onset.
Nevertheless, small-streams will respond fairly quickly to any
locally intense rainfall that develops.

Across the Foothills and western Piedmont of the Carolinas and
northeast Georgia, soil moisture values and streamflows have made
significant recoveries with recent rainfall, eliminating lingering
dry conditions and increasing the likelihood of significant runoff.
Where bands of heavy rainfall can set up across these regions
through early Monday, isolated to scattered minor small-stream
flooding is possible.  Mainstem river flooding is less likely,
but cannot be ruled out, especially along the Saluda, Reedy,
and upper reaches of the Middle Tyger River.

For more information about the current state of hydrologic
conditions across the area, see http:/weather.gov/gsp/floodoutlook.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch through Monday morning for GAZ010-017-018-026-028.
NC...Flood Watch through Monday morning for NCZ033-035-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501>510.
SC...Flood Watch through Monday morning for SCZ001>007-010.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK
HYDROLOGY...JMP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
356 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

GAZ018-026-028-NCZ033-035-048>050-053-065-501>510-SCZ001>007-010-
112100-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Avery-Alexander-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-
Buncombe-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Anderson-
356 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition to the flooding potential, isolated thunderstorms could
produce occasional cloud-to-ground lightning, especially late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...Heavy rain with flooding likely. Please see the latest
Flood Watch for details.
..Monday...Heavy rain with flooding possible. Localized flooding may
linger into Monday morning.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of flooding to
our office.

GAZ029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-011>014-019-112100-
Elbert-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Cherokee-York-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-
Greenwood-
356 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms could produce occasional cloud-to-ground
lightning, especially late tonight. Otherwise, rain showers will
continue to increase in coverage and intensity, with locally heavy
rain possible through early Sunday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...Heavy rain with flooding possible. Periods of moderate to
occasionally heavy rain are expected across the Piedmont throughout
the weekend. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches appear likely by
Sunday evening, and this could lead to localized flooding issues.
..Monday...Heavy rain with flooding possible. Localized flooding
issues could linger into Monday morning.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of flooding to
our office.

GAZ010-017-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-112100-
Rabun-Habersham-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
356 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition to the flooding potential, isolated thunderstorms could
produce occasional cloud-to-ground lightning, especially late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...Heavy rain with flooding likely. Please see the latest
Flood Watch for details.
..Monday...Heavy rain with flooding likely. Flooding issues could
linger into Monday morning.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of flooding to
our office.

Lane