River Flood Advisory 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
933 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist southwesterly flow will continue across the region today ahead
of a cold front slowly approaching from the northwest. The cold
front will lay over into the region on Monday and then gradually
settle southward through Monday night as high pressure builds to the
north. Cool and somewhat moist conditions will continue into Tuesday
before mid-week drying and warming occurs. Another cold front will
approach from the northwest late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM Update...No sigfnt changes were made to the fcst grids.
Temps and td/s are running nearly steady state over the past 3 hrs
and slow heating will occur thru the afternoon. A few deeper cells
and heavier precip are embedded within generally light to moderate
rainfall over the far nrn/ern zones. Drier air is working in from the
SW as convec along the Gulf coast is disrupting moisture flux. The
flood watch will remain in place as isol deep convec and training
cells are possible this afternoon generally along and north of I-85.

As of 630 AM EST Sunday: Main update for 12Z TAF issuance along with
minor tweaks made to temperatures to coincide with latest trends as
the rest of the near term forecast remains on track.

Strong southerly flow ahead of the next approaching system persists
this morning as a plume of moisture out of the GOM continues to
stream up across the Southeast. Latest radar imagery depicts
widespread showers moving northeastward across the western portions
of the FA, with plenty of precipitation yet to come. A Flood Watch
remains in effect for portions of the area (west of the I-77
corridor) through the near term forecast period as flooding has
already become a concern this morning with flood advisories &
warnings already in effect along the escarpment. Areas across the
Piedmont (not currently in the Flood Watch) may warrant a short-
fused Flood Watch later today as localized flooding could become an
issue, mainly within any training convection.

With a stationary boundary west of the area, sfc low pressure over
AR/LA/MS is expected to propagate northeastward up through the TN
Valley today as the associated cold front slowly makes it's
approach. With the system's forward track through tonight, our
forecast area will remain well within the warm sector. Current
temperatures in the low to mid 60s, into the upper 50s back across
the mountains this morning, will slightly warm today into the upper
60s across the Upstate and Piedmont, with increasing southerly winds.

PWATs today and tonight will remain in the 1.25-1.50 inch range,
which for February is well above normal. This available moisture
along with upglide and increasing upper dynamic support will allow
for widespread showers to persist throughout the day, along with
patchy areas of fog and embedded convection as available instability
and increasing shear warrants. Expect higher QPF to remain confined
to areas along and west of the escarpment, decreasing in amounts
towards the I-77 corridor. Enhanced lift later today with the
approaching cold front will allow for rainfall to expand eastward
through into the evening hours, as the front slowly pushes across
the FA from west to east tonight. Overall QPF totals for the near
term forecast period will remain the lowest across the eastern
portions of the FA, with up to three quarters of an inch possible
along the I-77 corridor before daybreak on Monday. However,
localized higher amounts of precip are possible as heavy downpours
within any convection today and tonight are likely, thus potentially
causing localized flooding or flash flooding, especially on smaller
streams and in urban areas. QPF amounts within the current Flood
Watch through early Monday morning will range between 1 to 2 inches,
with higher amounts across the southern upslope areas. Overnight low
temperatures will remain well above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Sunday: The cold front arriving from the northwest will
start to lay over across western North Carolina early on Monday.
Meanwhile, a deep layer southwesterly fetch will continue aloft, so
it will take high pressure building to the north and weak returning
upglide to allow the boundary to ooze southward as a wedge front
late Monday through Monday night. Precipitation amounts should be
rather modest as some degree of mid-level drying will occur. Ahead
of the back-door wedge front, the southeast part of the region
should see some Monday afternoon instability - with scattered
thunderstorms developing. Fortunately, shear will be weak on the
warm sector side of the surface wedge boundary.

The flow pattern will gradually become more zonal aloft Tuesday
through Tuesday night, with the CAD-like shallow ridge persisting
over the western Carolinas and NE GA. Any precipitation amounts will
remain quite low, but some clouds remaining in place will keep the
diurnal temperature range quite small.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday: Swift zonal flow will continue from mid to late
week. Brief drying will likely occur by Wednesday, but with deeper
moisture returning in the westerly flow Wednesday night through
Thursday ahead of the next approaching cold front. Warm temperatures
reaching 70 degrees or better look likely for Thursday in the warm
sector ahead of the cold front.

Considerable model difference appear for Friday through Saturday.
The GFS features a fast-moving shortwave crossing the Appalachians
on Friday to give the front an eastward kick, but the ECMWF does not
advertise this feature, generally keeping height falls back over the
southwestern U.S. The Canadian solution and ensembles are in between
the GFS/ECMWF. The Fri/Sat forecast will thus remain a low
confidence one with shotgun chance PoPs for now using a blended
solution with a frontal zone somewhere in the vicinity.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect a mixture of MVFR/IFR due to low cigs
and reduced visibilities (mainly SHRA) to prevail through the valid
TAF period, though cannot entirely out a brief improvement to VFR
cigs at any point, especially in areas where a lull in rainfall
activity is occurring.

A plume of moisture along with SW upglide flow will allow for low
cigs and widespread showers to persist through the forecast period
today, as a cold front approaches from the west tonight. Isolated
embedded TSRA cannot be ruled out, but given low confidence in
regards to timing, have not introduced into going TAFs attm. Along
with patchy areas of fog, deteriorated flight restrictions are
expected to prevail today through Monday.

Per latest radar imagery, the heaviest rainfall continues to move
northeastward through the area, with areas along and south of I-85
to gradually fill back in within the next few hours
(KAND/KGSP/KGMU/KCLT).  At all sites, breaks in the rainfall
activity may allow for cigs to briefly improve to marginal VFR cigs
but do not expect improvement to become prolonged. Anticipate SSE
winds AOB 15 kts to become SSW throughout the day, with gusts up to
20 kts possible as well (subsiding tonight).

Outlook: Expect MVFR/IFR/LIFR to gradually improve on Monday,
possibly lingering into Tuesday. Otherwise, expect VFR.

Confidence Table...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       High  84%     High  95%     High  84%     High  88%
KGSP       High  89%     High 100%     High  82%     High  93%
KAVL       High  91%     High  93%     High  89%     High  83%
KHKY       High  86%     High  98%     High  87%     High  83%
KGMU       High  84%     High 100%     Med   69%     High  93%
KAND       High  94%     High  95%     High  89%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Across the North Carolina mountains, soil moisture values
and streamflows remain near normal to above normal across most of
the area, with some exception across the extreme southwest
mountains. However, the somewhat drier antecedent conditions across
the southwest mountains are quickly becoming overcome by anticipated
rainfall. Reservoir pools are at or above target levels as well so
storage will be limited. Therefore, given the primed antecedent
conditions, runoff will be significant and the likelihood of
isolated to scattered small-stream flooding remains high, especially
across the southwest and southern mountains. Minor mainstem flooding
is most likely across the favored upper reaches of the French Broad
River, and remains possible along the Pigeon, Nantahala, and
Tuckasegee Rivers.  While rainfall overnight into this morning were
very efficient given near-record moisture content, heavy rainfall
totals will occur over a time period generally not conducive to
flash flooding, which occurs within 6-hours from rainfall onset.
Nevertheless, small-streams will respond fairly quickly to any
locally intense rainfall that develops.

Across the Foothills and western Piedmont of the Carolinas and
northeast Georgia, soil moisture values and streamflows have made
significant recoveries with recent rainfall, eliminating lingering
dry conditions and increasing the likelihood of significant runoff.
Where bands of heavy rainfall can set up across these regions today
through early Monday, isolated to scattered minor small-stream
flooding is possible.  Mainstem river flooding is less likely, but
cannot be ruled out, especially along the Saluda, Reedy, and upper
reaches of the Middle Tyger River.

For more information about the current state of hydrologic
conditions across the area, see http:/weather.gov/gsp/floodoutlook.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch through Monday morning for GAZ010-017-018-026-028.
NC...Flood Watch through Monday morning for NCZ033-035-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501>510.
SC...Flood Watch through Monday morning for SCZ001>007-010.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...SBK/SGL
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...SGL
HYDROLOGY...JMP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
355 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-
SCZ001>007-010-120900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Avery-Alexander-Madison-
Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson-
355 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the
mountains and foothills of western North Carolina and much of Upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition to the flooding potential, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will produce occasional cloud-to-ground lightning and
gusty winds, especially this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...Heavy rain with flooding possible. Localized flooding may
linger into Monday morning.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to relay any reports of flooding to the
National Weather Service.

GAZ029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-011>014-019-120900-
Elbert-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Cherokee-York-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-
Greenwood-
355 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Elbert County in northeast
Georgia, the piedmont of western North Carolina and the eastern
Upstate and lower piedmont of South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Heavy rainfall may produce isolated flooding across the region today
through tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will produce
occasional cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds, especially this
afternoon. Any heavier rainfall rates in thunderstorms may also
worsen localized flooding problems.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...Heavy rain with flooding possible. Localized flooding
issues could linger into Monday morning.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to relay any reports of flooding to the
National Weather Service.

HG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
832 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2018

NCZ035-056-068-501>504-508-111430-
Greater Rutherford NC-Caldwell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-
Cleveland NC-Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-
Catawba NC-
832 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2018

...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING...

At 829 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking heavy rain showers poised
to spread north across the advised area.  Given the existing wet
conditions across the North Carolina Foothills, this round of
showers could aggravate existing high water conditions. Also,
motorists should be prepared for reduced visibilities and ponding
of water on roads.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hickory, Lenoir, Morganton, Forest City, Taylorsville, Rutherfordton,
St. Stephens, Longview, Sawmills and Granite Falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3607 8141 3600 8133 3603 8123 3604 8103
      3600 8101 3556 8140 3557 8153 3547 8148
      3518 8174 3521 8185 3534 8196 3553 8193
      3554 8185 3558 8182 3571 8187 3574 8190
      3582 8189 3609 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 1329Z 237DEG 49KT 3539 8165

CSH