Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

863 
WGUS72 KGSP 111745
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
145 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

NCC003-023-027-035-097-111915-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0072.000000T0000Z-181011T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Catawba NC-Alexander NC-Iredell NC-Caldwell NC-Burke NC-
145 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR
CATAWBA...ALEXANDER...IREDELL...EASTERN CALDWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BURKE COUNTIES...

At 139 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain continuing across 
the warned area. Up to 3 inches of rain have fallen since early this 
morning. Stream and urban flooding is likely developing across many 
locations throughout the I-77 and I-40 corridor in the western North 
Carolina piedmont. An additional inch or so of rainfall is possible 
before the rain band exits the area.

The main areas where flooding will occur include eastern Catawba 
County and western Iredell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross
water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few
inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is
not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 8069 3585 8071 3568 8077 3551 8074
      3551 8096 3553 8094 3555 8096 3557 8167
      3577 8153 3587 8167 3606 8141 3602 8135
      3600 8133 3603 8127 3603 8107 3606 8098

$$

ARK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
737 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Michael will continue
into this afternoon, tapering off as the storm moves east. Gusty
winds will persist into Friday morning. Cool high pressure will
then settle over the area, bringing seasonably cooler and drier
air into the region through the weekend. A cold front will impact
the area early next week with a chance of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 700 AM EDT Thursday: No huge changes to grids this morning,
but a little concerning that HRRR and other hires guidance all
continue to insist on these hefty winds coming down through the
morning and spreading from W to E...and of note is that KAVL is
already gusting to 30kt, earlier than anticipated (which would have
impacts up the French Broad and into the Upstate with the gap
winds). Unfortunately, the HRRR may be onto something, and will
watch closely through the morning and update winds as necessary.
Adjusted pops to show a faster diminishing trend later this morning
based on the back edge of precip shield. Other changes are for
aviation parameters this morning.

Otherwise, this has been a particularly difficult forecast,
compounded by the effects of the combination of Michael and the
incoming front. Luckily, most of the impacts will be out of our area
by this evening, but we still have to get through the day first.
Rather than bore everyone with the synoptic details that most folks
are likely well aware of, will just detail the impacts.

1) Rain. We are seeing some signals in the hi-res models of some
incredibly high rainfall rates, 3-4" per hour later this morning.
After discussion with WPC, QPF totals have increased today and they
introduced a High Risk of Excessive Rain that includes the CLT
Metro, and they expanded the Moderate Risk farther west into the NC
mountains. The heavy rain remains our #1 concern, and our QPF from
now through 00z tonight is upwards of 4-5" across the I-77/I-85
corridor, with widespread 3"+ across most of the Piedmont (this all
in addition to what fell yesterday, which is more of a concern over
the mountains).

2) Tornado threat. We're seeing this materialize now with enhanced
signatures coming into the Upstate. Mesoanalysis only has about
500J/kg CAPE but shear is really over the top with 0-1km SRH of
>300m2/s2 moving into the Upstate, and effective bulk shear of 45-
50kt. HRRR keeps this cellular-looking band fairly intact as it
lifts north across the area and expect the low-end tornado threat to
continue.

3) Winds. This is the toughie. We're seeing some stronger upper
winds mixing down in the heavy rain as it is, and as Michael
interacts with both the incoming front and the pressure gradient
already in place from the little damming look-like wedge feature,
every bit of hires guidance is indicating a local increase in winds
on the back side of the precip shield across the Piedmont (and
possibly even into the mountains with the stronger LLJ, 50kt at
850mb across the mountains). In fact, it may be that some areas from
a GSP-Statesville/Salisbury line actually see *stronger* winds than
our extreme southern counties (that will be closer to the center of
the storm). Of specific concern is the HRRR, while perhaps overdone,
which gives upwards of 50kt gusts spreading across the Piedmont from
the western Upstate this morning toward the I-77 corridor early this
afternoon. Messaging this is difficult because TS probs from NHC
actually *decreased* with the 11p advisory, but they take into
account really only the immediate sustained wind radii associated
with the wind ball itself and not necessarily any extratropical
elements *OR* the gusts. Additionally, the gradient winds over the
mountains (Balsams, Blacks, and points north - not Smokies) will be
just as strong as winds in the Piedmont, with possibly higher gusts
from that LLJ. With this, without having a better option (we are
prevented from issuing a Wind Advisory or High Wind Warning if there
are Tropical headlines in effect), have opted to expand the TR.W
across a good chunk of the area. We know this is a very short-fused
lead time and is likely confusing and maybe not even the best
option, but given the saturated soils and potential impacts (there
will certainly be trees down), feel this is the prudent action.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Thu: Surface high pressure will filter into the
Southeast Friday bringing a dry northwesterly flow across the CWFA
and the return of temps very close to normal. However, a fast-moving
shortwave will move all the way from the central Plains to New
England between Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon, with a
cold front in tow. While the best lift will be north of our area, a
brief sprinkle could accompany these features as they cross the
mountains early Saturday, but that looks to be all. Another, cooler
sfc high will move in behind the front, bringing temperatures a
little below climo for Saturday afternoon. This front will weaken
and stall across the Southeast Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Thu: Southerly low-level flow already should be
underway at the start of the period Sunday morning. Clouds and
precip chances will increase Sunday into Monday, as the Southeast
remains in a warm-sector pattern under a building upper ridge,
with a nearly stationary frontal boundary stretching across the
Ozarks and and Ohio Valley. Some SBCAPE even is progged to return
to the area Monday afternoon, bringing thunder chances, but looking
too small to support much severe threat. Temps will briefly rise
a category or so above normal again. Some PoP will linger through
Tuesday with timing differences in how fast the front lifts north
away from the region, if at all, and with afternoon instability
possibly returning. A full-latitude upper trough will advance
through the middle of the CONUS Tuesday afternoon and night,
driving the boundary back through our area once again as a cold
front. In the wake of that front, PoPs finally taper off, and still
cooler air pushes in. Temps look to fall back to or slightly below
normal again by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mainly IFR with some pockets of MVFR this
morning with widespread +SHRA. Slow improvement through the late
morning and early afternoon, but then after the back edge of the
precip shield moves through a dryslot comes around, should see rapid
improvement. Other concern is the winds which are E for all but KAVL
for now, but will shift NE and N as the center of Michael moves E.
Increasing concern for stronger gusts, already G30kt at KAVL and
possible to see G40kt or even higher there. Other TAFs should mostly
see ~30kt gusts, but some guidance indicating winds quite a bit
higher and trends will have to be monitored. Kept trend of LLWS in
through the mid-morning hours.  Winds should diminish after midnight
tonight, though still close to 10kt, with low-end gusts continuing
at KAVL. Some indications of fog possible in the morning at KAVL
though have not introduced at this time.

Outlook: Fair conditions develop for the weekend, but restrictions
will be possible again early next week as a cold front approaches
the area.

Confidence Table...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-06Z
KCLT       Med   78%     High  81%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  85%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   78%     Med   75%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High  93%     High  81%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  85%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ028-029.
     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ028-029.
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ033-035>037-049-050-052-053-056-
     057-059-063>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ033-049-050-053-
     064-065-501>510.
     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ035>037-056-057-
     068>072-082.
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ001>014-019.
     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ002-003-005>007-
     010>013-019.
     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ008-009-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...TDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
730 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

GAZ028-029-NCZ033-049-050-053-064-065-501>510-SCZ002-003-005>007-
010>013-019-121130-
Hart-Elbert-Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union-Greenwood-
730 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be embedded in the rain
bands surrounding Tropical Storm Michael. These thunderstorms will
be capable of dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and may briefly
enhance the already gusty winds expected through the day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are asked to forward any reports of wind damage or
flash flooding to our office.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-014-121130-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Cherokee-York-Chester-
730 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be embedded in the rain
bands surrounding Tropical Storm Michael. These thunderstorms will
be capable of dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and may briefly
enhance the already gusty winds expected through the day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are asked to forward any reports of wind damage or
flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ048-051-058-062-121130-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Madison-Swain-Graham-Macon-
730 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible today as Tropical Storm Michael
moves through the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ052-059-063-SCZ001-004-121130-
Haywood-Northern Jackson-Southern Jackson-Oconee Mountains-
Greater Oconee-
730 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be embedded in the rain
bands surrounding Tropical Storm Michael. These thunderstorms will
be capable of dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and may briefly
enhance the already gusty winds expected through the day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are asked to forward any reports of wind damage or
flash flooding to our office.

Wimberley

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
752 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SW ASHFORD            35.84N 81.99W
10/11/2018                   MCDOWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NORTH FORK RIVER OUT OF ITS BANKS ON NORTH COVE SCHOOL
            ROAD.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
837 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ESE GREENVILLE        34.83N 82.35W
10/11/2018                   GREENVILLE         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GREENVILLE PD REPORTS URBAN FLOODING AT WAITE ST AND
            LAURENS RD. ROAD IS CLOSED.

0750 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE GREENVILLE        34.86N 82.39W
10/11/2018                   GREENVILLE         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GREENVILLE PD REPORTED FLOODING ALONG PARK AVE BETWEEN
            BENNETT ST AND LOWRY ST. THE ROADS IS CLOSED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
859 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WSW HENDERSONVILLE    35.31N 82.53W
10/11/2018  M3.25 INCH       HENDERSON          NC   COCORAHS

            8 HOUR TOTAL.

0840 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW MAULDIN           34.76N 82.32W
10/11/2018  M5.15 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   COCORAHS

            TOTAL SINCE MIDNIGHT. 2.10 INCHES OF THIS AMOUNT FELL IN
            THE LAST 2 HOURS.

0853 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 ENE BARNARDSVILLE     35.79N 82.37W
10/11/2018  M6.54 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   MESONET

            TOTAL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
928 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE MAULDIN           34.81N 82.30W
10/11/2018                   GREENVILLE         SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HAMBY DR NEAR ROYAL OAK RD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE MAULDIN            34.79N 82.29W
10/11/2018                   GREENVILLE         SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CORN RD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING NEAR MAULDIN HIGH
            SCHOOL.

&&

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1019 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BANNER ELK              36.16N 81.87W
10/11/2018                   AVERY              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT INDICATED THAT HIGHWAY 184 GOING INTO BANNER
            ELK IS BEING CLOSED.

&&