Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

030 
WGUS72 KGSP 111329
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
929 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

NCC021-089-111-149-161-111530-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0064.000000T0000Z-181011T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
McDowell NC-Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-Polk NC-Buncombe NC-
929 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD...EASTERN
HENDERSON...WESTERN POLK AND SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...

At 922 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
that heavy tropical rainfall continues to occur over the area. 
Localized 3 to 5 inches of rain have fallen since early this 
morning. Flash flooding is already occurring in many locations in 
the warned area. In particular, the Broad River at Bat Cave, where 
homes and campgrounds along the river will flood downstream toward 
Lake Lure. Also, the Mud and Bat Fork Creeks in central Henderson 
County are flooding.

Excessive rainfall over the warned area will cause mud slides near
steep terrain. The mud slide can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and
other loose materials.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Hendersonville, Columbus, Black Mountain, Flat Rock, Mountain Home,
Laurel Park, Tryon, Lake Lure, Old Fort and Saluda.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross
water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few
inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is
not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

The additional heavy rain will increase the risk of landslides,
especially in areas where slides have occurred in the past. Be
especially alert if you are near a stream, especially at the base of
a mountain or in a cove. Watch for loose-moving soil and rocks or a
sudden increase in streamflow. Leave the area quickly if this is
observed. When driving along roads where the terrain is steep or
rocky, watch and listen for falling rocks, mud, trees and other
debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 8201 3520 8221 3519 8238 3521 8239
      3518 8243 3518 8245 3528 8254 3543 8250
      3550 8236 3569 8236 3570 8226 3573 8219
      3578 8215

$$

ARK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
341 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Michael will continue
into this afternoon, tapering off as the storm moves east. Gusty
winds will persist into Friday morning. Cool high pressure will
then settle over the area, bringing seasonably cooler and drier
air into the region through the weekend. A cold front will impact
the area early next week with a chance of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday: This has been a particularly difficult
forecast, compounded by the effects of the combination of Michael
and the incoming front. Luckily, most of the impacts will be out of
our area by this evening, but we still have to get through the day
first. Rather than bore everyone with the synoptic details that most
folks are likely well aware of, will just detail the impacts.

1) Rain. We are seeing some signals in the hi-res models of some
incredibly high rainfall rates, 3-4" per hour later this morning.
After discussion with WPC, QPF totals have increased today and they
introduced a High Risk of Excessive Rain that includes the CLT
Metro, and they expanded the Moderate Risk farther west into the NC
mountains. The heavy rain remains our #1 concern, and our QPF from
now through 00z tonight is upwards of 4-5" across the I-77/I-85
corridor, with widespread 3"+ across most of the Piedmont (this all
in addition to what fell yesterday, which is more of a concern over
the mountains).

2) Tornado threat. We're seeing this materialize now with enhanced
signatures coming into the Upstate. Mesoanalysis only has about
500J/kg CAPE but shear is really over the top with 0-1km SRH of
>300m2/s2 moving into the Upstate, and effective bulk shear of 45-
50kt. HRRR keeps this cellular-looking band fairly intact as it
lifts north across the area and expect the low-end tornado threat to
continue.

3) Winds. This is the toughie. We're seeing some stronger upper
winds mixing down in the heavy rain as it is, and as Michael
interacts with both the incoming front and the pressure gradient
already in place from the little damming look-like wedge feature,
every bit of hires guidance is indicating a local increase in winds
on the back side of the precip shield across the Piedmont (and
possibly even into the mountains with the stronger LLJ, 50kt at
850mb across the mountains). In fact, it may be that some areas from
a GSP-Statesville/Salisbury line actually see *stronger* winds than
our extreme southern counties (that will be closer to the center of
the storm). Of specific concern is the HRRR, while perhaps overdone,
which gives upwards of 50kt gusts spreading across the Piedmont from
the western Upstate this morning toward the I-77 corridor early this
afternoon. Messaging this is difficult because TS probs from NHC
actually *decreased* with the 11p advisory, but they take into
account really only the immediate sustained wind radii associated
with the wind ball itself and not necessarily any extratropical
elements *OR* the gusts. Additionally, the gradient winds over the
mountains (Balsams, Blacks, and points north - not Smokies) will be
just as strong as winds in the Piedmont, with possibly higher gusts
from that LLJ. With this, without having a better option (we are
prevented from issuing a Wind Advisory or High Wind Warning if there
are Tropical headlines in effect), have opted to expand the TR.W
across a good chunk of the area. We know this is a very short-fused
lead time and is likely confusing and maybe not even the best
option, but given the saturated soils and potential impacts (there
will certainly be trees down), feel this is the prudent action.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Thu: Surface high pressure will filter into the
Southeast Friday bringing a dry northwesterly flow across the CWFA
and the return of temps very close to normal. However, a fast-moving
shortwave will move all the way from the central Plains to New
England between Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon, with a
cold front in tow. While the best lift will be north of our area,
a brief chance of precip will accompany these features as they
cross the mountains early Saturday. Another, cooler sfc high will
move in behind the front, bringing temperatures a little below
climo for Saturday afternoon. This front will weaken and stall
across the Southeast Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Thu: Southerly low-level flow already should be
underway at the start of the period Sunday morning. Clouds and
precip chances will increase Sunday into Monday, as the Southeast
remains in a warm-sector pattern under a building upper ridge,
with a nearly stationary frontal boundary stretching across the
Ozarks and and Ohio Valley. Some SBCAPE even is progged to return
to the area Monday afternoon, bringing thunder chances, but looking
too small to support much severe threat. Temps will briefly rise
a category or so above normal again. Some PoP will linger through
Tuesday with timing differences in how fast the front lifts north
away from the region, if at all, and with afternoon instability
possibly returning. A full-latitude upper trough will advance
through the middle of the CONUS Tuesday afternoon and night,
driving the boundary back through our area once again as a cold
front. In the wake of that front, PoPs finally taper off, and still
cooler air pushes in. Temps look to fall back to or slightly below
normal again by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Widespread IFR across the area at TAF time
will see little improvement until later this morning. SHRA
overspreading the Upstate and will continue to lift north. Cannot
rule out isolated thunder but not enough to include in TAFs at this
time. Should see rapid clearing from the W generally starting around
or just after 18z with cigs lifting through MVFR and to VFR by this
evening. Winds will also be on the increase out of the E through the
early morning hours with pretty steady gusts to 30kt or thereabouts
today with continued LLWS concerns, but as the center of Michael
passes to our south today, winds will shift rapidly N to NNW. Winds
will diminish after midnight for all but KAVL, where 20-25kt gusts
will continue through the end of the period.

Outlook: Fair conditions develop for the weekend, but restrictions
will be possible again early next week as a cold front approaches
the area.

Confidence Table...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       High  86%     Med   70%     High  90%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   62%     Med   61%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   66%     High  82%     High  97%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   63%     Med   74%     High  96%     High 100%
KGMU       Low   59%     Med   71%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       Med   73%     Med   78%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ028-029.
     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ028-029.
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ033-035>037-049-050-052-053-056-
     057-059-063>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ033-049-050-053-
     064-065-501>510.
     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ035>037-056-057-
     068>072-082.
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ001>014-019.
     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ002-003-005>007-
     010>013-019.
     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ008-009-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...DEO/Wimberley
AVIATION...TDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
435 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

GAZ028-029-NCZ033-049-050-053-064-065-501>510-SCZ002-003-005-006-010-
011-019-120845-
Hart-Elbert-Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Anderson-
Abbeville-Greenwood-
435 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be embedded in the rain
bands surrounding Tropical Storm Michael. These thunderstorms will
be capable of dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and may briefly
enhance the already gusty winds expected through the day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are asked to forward any reports of wind damage or
flash flooding to our office.

SCZ007-012-013-120845-
Spartanburg-Laurens-Union-
435 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 408 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be embedded in the rain
bands surrounding Tropical Storm Michael. These thunderstorms will
be capable of dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and may briefly
enhance the already gusty winds expected through the day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are asked to forward any reports of wind damage or
flash flooding to our office.

SCZ008-009-014-120845-
Cherokee-York-Chester-
435 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...TORNADO WATCH 408 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Tropical Storm Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be embedded in the rain
bands surrounding Tropical Storm Michael. These thunderstorms will
be capable of dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and may briefly
enhance the already gusty winds expected through the day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are asked to forward any reports of wind damage or
flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ048-051-058-062-120845-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Madison-Swain-Graham-Macon-
435 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible today as Tropical Storm Michael
moves through the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are asked to forward any reports of wind damage or
flash flooding to our office.

NCZ052-059-063-SCZ001-004-120845-
Haywood-Northern Jackson-Southern Jackson-Oconee Mountains-
Greater Oconee-
435 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be embedded in the rain
bands surrounding Tropical Storm Michael. These thunderstorms will be
capable of dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and may briefly
enhance the already gusty winds expected through the day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are asked to forward any reports of wind damage or
flash flooding to our office.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-120845-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
435 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be embedded in the rain
bands surrounding Tropical Storm Michael. These thunderstorms will be
capable of dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and may briefly
enhance the already gusty winds expected through the day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are asked to forward any reports of wind damage or
flash flooding to our office.

Wimberley