Flash Flood Warning 49, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

992 
WGUS72 KGSP 160226
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1026 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2018

NCC025-159-160234-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0049.000000T0000Z-180916T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cabarrus NC-Rowan NC-
1026 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CABARRUS AND SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1030 PM EDT SATURDAY...

Rain rates over the past 6 hours have not been sufficient to cause 
significant flooding in the area.  Therefore, the Flash Flood 
Warning will be allowed to expire.  However, the worst rain rates 
have yet to arrive and new flash flooding is likely heading into 
Sunday.  Florence is a slow-moving storm that will pose a 
significant threat through Monday morning.  The public is urged to 
stay weather aware and be prepared to seek higher ground when new 
flooding materializes.

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3519 8051 3526 8066 3535 8069
      3538 8074 3550 8079 3551 8068 3575 8046
      3573 8045 3572 8042 3572 8034 3571 8032
      3568 8033 3563 8029 3558 8021 3555 8021
      3551 8018

$$

JMP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
258 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Florence will continue to track into and through the
western Carolinas this weekend. This will result in a threat for
widespread flooding into Monday. Drying will occur across the
forecast area as Florence pulls away from the southeast early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT: The center of Florence continues to drift westward
around 3 MPH, and is about 40 mi south of Florence, SC. A couple of
dominant rainbands can be seen pivoting north and west from the
Atlantic into the Wilmington, NC area. But as the rain crosses the N-
S axis of the circulation, the rain rates really come down. So while
it has been raining persistently across the I-77 corridor, rainfall
totals have been in the 1-2" range. With that said, rainfall will
continue to accumulate, and excessive rain and flooding is still
expected to develop in the east as early as late aftn. The rest of
the area will see the best rain rates overnight tonight thru Sunday
morning.  Confidence is decreasing on the western portions of the
Flash Flood Watch, as all the 12z guidance has come in lower and/or
shifted a little NE with the heavy rain axis. Will hold off on
making any big changes just yet.

The other concern is winds. So far, it has been windy across the
eastern half of the CWA, with a few reports of trees down and power
outages, mainly over the Charlotte metro area. The wind advisory
looks well placed. Overnight, all the operational models show an
easterly LLJ increasing over the eastern escarpment of the NC
mountains up to 50-60 kts. The wind direction may stay slightly NE,
rather than due east, and forecast soundings show minimal mixing
(other than with the rainbands). So there is a possibility we may
need to upgrade part of the NC mountains east of the French Broad
River to a High Wind Warning. However, confidence on impacts is too
low, and that will have to monitored this evening. Lows will be
around 10 degrees above normal.

Florence should weaken to a tropical depression overnight, and begin
to speed up as it turns to a northward direction on Sunday. This
should shift the heavier rainbands north of the forecast area, but
keep the area cloudy. Winds will also gradually weaken and become
less gusty thru the day. The 12z guidance shows very little CAPE,
but shear will remain high, so a non-zero tornado threat may exist
again across the Piedmont. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, mainly in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Saturday: Significant flooding impacts are still
expected into early next week with Flash Flood Watch in effect
through Monday night for the area with the exception of the extreme
southwest mountains and northeast GA.

Remnants of Florence will continue moving northwest Sunday night,
before shifting north then northwest Monday into Monday night. Heavy
rainfall still possible Sunday night especially near the mountains
as easterly component to the wind flow results in upslope and
enhanced areas of rain. Sustained winds of 10-20kts will be
accompanied by stronger gusts as low level jet of 20-30kts at 925mb
over the northern areas lifts further north and begins to weaken by
Monday morning. The saturated soils and gusty winds continue to be
of concern for downed trees. With heavy rainfall, landslides will be
possible across the mountains and higher foothills through the
forecast period. Areas where landslides have recently occurred will
be more susceptible to additional landslides. As for the rivers,
river flooding continues to be likely for the Catawba, Yadkin, and
Broad watersheds. Latest river forecasts are already showing some
locations along the Catawba and Yadkin rivers are likely to reach
major flood stage.

On Monday, wrap around precipitation will continue to affect
portions of the region as Florence becomes post-tropical developing
into a weak, broad area of low pressure. Southern portions of the FA
will see drier conditions, but a few passing showers can't be ruled
out. The chance for more rainfall exists into late Tuesday/Tuesday
night as 500mb wave phases with remnants of Florence. The mid-level
wave will extend southward into the area with a trough at the
surface, triggering convection Tuesday into Tuesday night,
especially across higher elevations.

Temperatures throughout the period will be bout 5 degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Saturday: By Wednesday morning, drier air filters
in as high pressure builds over the southeast. The axis of high
pressure will shift northeast, bringing east to southeasterly flow
into the region and increase moisture on Thursday. Cannot rule out a
few diurnally driven showers across the mountains Thursday afternoon.

The ridge of high pressure continues to shift further into the
northern Atlantic, as a surface frontal boundary approaches by the
end of the work week. This boundary will bring another chance of
rain into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A gradual deterioration in flight conditions
continues from east to west this aftn into this evening, as Florence
spins westward over the Carolinas. Very gusty winds continue across
the area through tonight, with strongest winds expected this evening
across the Piedmont, and overnight across the mountains. MVFR cigs
will follow a similar trend. Cigs and vsby will fall to IFR as heavy
rain moves in from the east. LLWS is a concern, with 40-60kts out of
the NE around 2000 ft AGL through tonight. Florence will make a
right turn and start to lift north while continuing to weaken. This
should bring winds around out of the SE toward the end or just after
the 18z TAF period. Winds should lose much of the stronger gusts by
midday Sunday, with some improvement in cigs beginning during the
aftn hours.

Outlook: Expect intermittent MVFR or IFR flight restrictions with
periods of moderate to heavy rain into early Monday as the remnants
of Florence move across the western Carolinas. Flight conditions
improve later on Monday and into Tuesday.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High  92%     Med   77%     High  90%     High  92%
KGSP       Med   74%     Med   72%     Med   68%     High  96%
KAVL       Med   78%     High  84%     High  89%     High  96%
KHKY       High  87%     Med   68%     Med   79%     High  94%
KGMU       Med   77%     Med   62%     Med   70%     High  94%
KAND       High  96%     Med   79%     High  93%     High  95%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ010-017.
NC...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-
     056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-052-053-056-057-059-063>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for SCZ001>014-019.
     Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
415 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-SCZ004>014-019-160815-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
415 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Despite weakening quickly to a tropical storm and tropical
depression as it moves west through the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia, Florence will bring very significant impacts to
the region through the weekend and possibly into Monday. Prepare now
for flooding rainfall, landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains, and gusty winds that could damage trees and power lines.
In addition, the threat of isolated, brief tornadoes is possible on
Sunday. The track of Florence, and the latest forecast of the
elements, will need to be monitored very closely over the next
several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-059-063>065-501-503-505-507-509-510-
SCZ001>003-160815-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Northern Jackson-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
415 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Despite weakening quickly to a tropical storm and tropical
depression as it moves west through the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia, Florence will bring very significant impacts to
the region through the weekend and possibly into Monday. Prepare now
for flooding rainfall, landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains, and gusty winds that could damage trees and power lines.
In addition, the threat of isolated, brief tornadoes is possible on
Sunday. The track of Florence, and the latest forecast of the
elements, will need to be monitored very closely over the next
several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ051-058-062-160815-
Rabun-Habersham-Swain-Graham-Macon-
415 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Despite weakening quickly to a tropical storm and tropical
depression as it moves west through the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia, Florence will bring very significant impacts to
the region through the weekend and possibly into Monday. Prepare now
for flooding rainfall, landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains, and gusty winds that could damage trees and power lines.
In addition, the threat of isolated, brief tornadoes is possible on
Sunday. The track of Florence, and the latest forecast of the
elements, will need to be monitored very closely over the next
several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-160815-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-
415 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible through tonight. Winds may be
gusty at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Despite weakening quickly to a tropical storm and tropical
depression as it moves west through the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia, Florence will bring very significant impacts to
the region through the weekend and possibly into Monday. Prepare now
for flooding rainfall, landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains, and gusty winds that could damage trees and power lines.
In addition, the threat of isolated, brief tornadoes is possible on
Sunday. The track of Florence, and the latest forecast of the
elements, will need to be monitored very closely over the next
several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.