Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

139 
WGUS72 KGSP 160224
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1024 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2018

NCC179-160229-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-180916T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Union NC-
1024 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR UNION COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

Rain rates over the past 6 hours have not been sufficient to cause 
significant flooding in the area.  Therefore, the Flash Flood 
Warning will be allowed to expire.  However, the worst rain rates 
have yet to arrive and new flash flooding is likely heading into 
Sunday.  Florence is a slow-moving storm that will pose a 
significant threat through Monday morning.  The public is urged to 
stay weather aware and be prepared to seek higher ground when new 
flooding materializes.

LAT...LON 3481 8032 3482 8080 3494 8078 3500 8084
      3503 8080 3503 8078 3505 8075 3521 8055
      3518 8050 3516 8044 3517 8037 3517 8036
      3519 8028

$$

JMP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
142 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Florence will continue to track inland through the Carolinas this
this weekend as it weakens. This will result in an threat for
widespread flooding later this weekend into early next week. Drying
will occur across the forecast area as Florence pulls away from the
southeast early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1130 AM EDT: The center of Florence continues to drift west
this afternoon, with a 15z position over Williamsburg County, SC.
With this westward motion, the wind and rain bands across will
continue to spread in across the eastern half of the forecast
area. The heaviest rainfall, 4 to 6 inches, is forecast for the I-77
corridor. 2 to 4 inches are forecast from there to the I-26/I-385
corridor. Precip amounts really drop off west of there as they will
be the last locations to see rainfall. The Flash Flood Watch looks
well placed with no changes needed for now.

Gradient wind gusts have generally been in the 15-25 knot range with
gusts in the rain bands, which help mix down stronger winds, into
the 35-40 knot range. Stronger gradient wind gusts may be realized
in the higher elevations as the stronger low level winds around the
circulation move west. Although most winds will be below warning
criteria, the heavy rainfall will saturate the ground making falling
trees more likely. Dead or weakened trees and limbs will also be
more likely to fall. The Wind Advisory is also well placed.

Although the tornado threat is low given the weakening cyclone and
the track of the center, an isolated tornado is possible, especially
across the I-77 corridor and if any CAPE can be realized. Also can't
rule out a severe wind gust in the rain bands.

Should be quite a gradient with high temps today with clouds and
rain early in the east and a slower onset across the west. Highs
range from nearly 10 degrees below normal east to nearly 5 degrees
above normal west. Lows will be around 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Saturday: Significant flooding impacts are still
expected into early next week with Flash Flood Watch in effect
through Monday night for the area with the exception of the extreme
southwest mountains and northeast GA.

Remnants of Florence will continue moving northwest Sunday night,
before shifting north then northwest Monday into Monday night. Heavy
rainfall still possible Sunday night especially near the mountains
as easterly component to the wind flow results in upslope and
enhanced areas of rain. Sustained winds of 10-20kts will be
accompanied by stronger gusts as low level jet of 20-30kts at 925mb
over the northern areas lifts further north and begins to weaken by
Monday morning. The saturated soils and gusty winds continue to be
of concern for downed trees. With heavy rainfall, landslides will be
possible across the mountains and higher foothills through the
forecast period. Areas where landslides have recently occurred will
be more susceptible to additional landslides. As for the rivers,
river flooding continues to be likely for the Catawba, Yadkin, and
Broad watersheds. Latest river forecasts are already showing some
locations along the Catawba and Yadkin rivers are likely to reach
major flood stage.

On Monday, wrap around precipitation will continue to affect
portions of the region as Florence becomes post-tropical developing
into a weak, broad area of low pressure. Southern portions of the FA
will see drier conditions, but a few passing showers can't be ruled
out. The chance for more rainfall exists into late Tuesday/Tuesday
night as 500mb wave phases with remnants of Florence. The mid-level
wave will extend southward into the area with a trough at the
surface, triggering convection Tuesday into Tuesday night,
especially across higher elevations.

Temperatures throughout the period will be bout 5 degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Saturday: By Wednesday morning, drier air filters
in as high pressure builds over the southeast. The axis of high
pressure will shift northeast, bringing east to southeasterly flow
into the region and increase moisture on Thursday. Cannot rule out a
few diurnally driven showers across the mountains Thursday afternoon.

The ridge of high pressure continues to shift further into the
northern Atlantic, as a surface frontal boundary approaches by the
end of the work week. This boundary will bring another chance of
rain into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A gradual deterioration in flight conditions
continues from east to west this aftn into this evening, as Florence
spins westward over the Carolinas. Very gusty winds continue across
the area through tonight, with strongest winds expected this evening
across the Piedmont, and overnight across the mountains. MVFR cigs
will follow a similar trend. Cigs and vsby will fall to IFR as heavy
rain moves in from the east. LLWS is a concern, with 40-60kts out of
the NE around 2000 ft AGL through tonight. Florence will make a
right turn and start to lift north while continuing to weaken. This
should bring winds around out of the SE toward the end or just after
the 18z TAF period. Winds should lose much of the stronger gusts by
midday Sunday, with some improvement in cigs beginning during the
aftn hours.

Outlook: Expect intermittent MVFR or IFR flight restrictions with
periods of moderate to heavy rain into early Monday as the remnants
of Florence move across the western Carolinas. Flight conditions
improve later on Monday and into Tuesday.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Med   78%     High 100%
KGSP       High  93%     Med   75%     Med   72%     High  93%
KAVL       High  93%     Med   78%     Med   64%     High  93%
KHKY       High 100%     Med   69%     Med   72%     High  93%
KGMU       High 100%     Med   78%     Med   66%     High  93%
KAND       High 100%     High  89%     High  89%     Med   71%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ010-017.
NC...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ033-035>037-048>053-
     056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-052-053-056-057-059-063>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for SCZ001>014-019.
     Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
415 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-SCZ004>014-019-160815-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
415 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Despite weakening quickly to a tropical storm and tropical
depression as it moves west through the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia, Florence will bring very significant impacts to
the region through the weekend and possibly into Monday. Prepare now
for flooding rainfall, landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains, and gusty winds that could damage trees and power lines.
In addition, the threat of isolated, brief tornadoes is possible on
Sunday. The track of Florence, and the latest forecast of the
elements, will need to be monitored very closely over the next
several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-059-063>065-501-503-505-507-509-510-
SCZ001>003-160815-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Northern Jackson-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
415 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Despite weakening quickly to a tropical storm and tropical
depression as it moves west through the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia, Florence will bring very significant impacts to
the region through the weekend and possibly into Monday. Prepare now
for flooding rainfall, landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains, and gusty winds that could damage trees and power lines.
In addition, the threat of isolated, brief tornadoes is possible on
Sunday. The track of Florence, and the latest forecast of the
elements, will need to be monitored very closely over the next
several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ051-058-062-160815-
Rabun-Habersham-Swain-Graham-Macon-
415 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Despite weakening quickly to a tropical storm and tropical
depression as it moves west through the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia, Florence will bring very significant impacts to
the region through the weekend and possibly into Monday. Prepare now
for flooding rainfall, landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains, and gusty winds that could damage trees and power lines.
In addition, the threat of isolated, brief tornadoes is possible on
Sunday. The track of Florence, and the latest forecast of the
elements, will need to be monitored very closely over the next
several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-160815-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-
415 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible through tonight. Winds may be
gusty at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Despite weakening quickly to a tropical storm and tropical
depression as it moves west through the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia, Florence will bring very significant impacts to
the region through the weekend and possibly into Monday. Prepare now
for flooding rainfall, landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains, and gusty winds that could damage trees and power lines.
In addition, the threat of isolated, brief tornadoes is possible on
Sunday. The track of Florence, and the latest forecast of the
elements, will need to be monitored very closely over the next
several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.