Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

130 
WGUS72 KGSP 292348
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
748 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

NCC027-300300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-180530T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Caldwell NC-
748 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
CALDWELL COUNTY...

At 746 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated that heavy rain had moved out 
of the area. However, additional rainfall of up to 2 inches will 
move back into the area this evening. Flash flooding is expected to 
continue. Landslides are also possible.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Lenoir, Gamewell, Cajah's Mountain, Blowing Rock In Caldwell County,
Edgemont, Collettsville, Patterson, Globe, Upton and Cedar Rock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross
water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few
inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is
not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

Runoff from heavy rain into creeks and streams will cause sudden
increases in water levels and flows, even in areas where rainfall has
been light or nonexistent. Hikers, campers and other individuals
outdoors must immediately seek high ground and avoid all streams.

The additional heavy rain will increase the risk of landslides,
especially in areas where slides have occurred in the past. Be
especially alert if you are near a stream, especially at the base of
a mountain or in a cove. Watch for loose-moving soil and rocks or a
sudden increase in streamflow. Leave the area quickly if this is
observed. When driving along roads where the terrain is steep or
rocky, watch and listen for falling rocks, mud, trees and other
debris.

When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides
flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on
our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message
should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and
other landmarks.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8155 3610 8152 3609 8145 3607 8144
      3606 8140 3578 8154 3578 8156 3585 8164
      3588 8171 3592 8175 3593 8178 3595 8178
      3595 8180 3596 8181 3607 8174 3610 8180
      3611 8181 3612 8169

$$

RWH

755 
WGUS72 KGSP 300143
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
943 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

NCC027-300300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-180530T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Caldwell NC-
943 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR
CALDWELL COUNTY...

At 937 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
that heavy rain was falling over the area. Flash flooding is already 
occurring. Landslides are also possible.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Lenoir, Gamewell, Cajah's Mountain, Blowing Rock In Caldwell County,
Edgemont, Collettsville, Patterson, Globe, Upton and Cedar Rock.

The river gauge along Wilson Creek at Edgemont is rising rapidly. 
The level is currently 4.3 feet. However, due to the rapid rise and 
earlier flooding, Caldwell County Emergency Management has sounded 
the warning siren to notify persons along the creek. At 5 feet, 
Brown Mountain Beach Road and vicinity will flood. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross
water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few
inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is
not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

Runoff from heavy rain into creeks and streams will cause sudden
increases in water levels and flows, even in areas where rainfall has
been light or nonexistent. Hikers, campers and other individuals
outdoors must immediately seek high ground and avoid all streams.

The additional heavy rain will increase the risk of landslides,
especially in areas where slides have occurred in the past. Be
especially alert if you are near a stream, especially at the base of
a mountain or in a cove. Watch for loose-moving soil and rocks or a
sudden increase in streamflow. Leave the area quickly if this is
observed. When driving along roads where the terrain is steep or
rocky, watch and listen for falling rocks, mud, trees and other
debris.

When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides
flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on
our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message
should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and
other landmarks.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8155 3610 8152 3609 8145 3607 8144
      3606 8140 3578 8154 3578 8156 3585 8164
      3588 8171 3592 8175 3593 8178 3595 8178
      3595 8180 3596 8181 3607 8174 3610 8180
      3611 8181 3612 8169

$$

RWH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
251 PM EDT Tue May 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep tropical moisture will persist over the area through Wednesday
as the remnants of Alberto move northward from Alabama to Kentucky
and eventually to the Great Lakes. A moist airmass will persist into
Friday before southerly flow shifts more to the west. Slightly drier
air will mix in from the west over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday: A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
the entire CWFA as abundant tropical moisture continues to stream
across the region. Subtropical Depression Alberto continues to make
gradual progression northward this afternoon as the latest satellite
imagery depicts the center of circulation over Northern Alabama.
We've seen an increase in thunderstorm activity over the past couple
of hours as sct breaks in the cloud cover have allowed sfc-based
instability to increase. This instability combined with some decent
low-lvl SRH in the 100 to 250 m2/s2 range, will keep a marginal risk
over the area for severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes. The
latest CAM guidance continues to develop numerous discrete cells
thru the late afternoon and into the evening. Localized flooding
and mountain landslides over the higher terrain will continue to be
the primary concern as periods of heavy rainfall are expected to
continue through the near term period. With the already saturated
ground, even marginal wind gusts could easily bring down a few trees.
High temperatures will remain near normal and low temps will stay
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday: By the start of the short term period
(Wednesday night), the remnant circulation of Alberto will be over
the midwest getting absorbed by a negatively-tilted shortwave trough
lifting out of the Northern Plains. Upper high in the western
Atlantic combined with the slowly merging Alberto/shortwave will
continue to keep a moist fetch from the Gulf across the Southeast
and toward the Southern Appalachians. The trough will slowly lift
through the period as the upper ridge works down over the Bahamas,
with the deep moisture lifting to the northeast as well. A lingering
shortwave embedded in the pattern will push up the OH/TN Valleys
Thursday night into Friday, bringing another push of precip to area.
At least at the start of the period, PW values remain anomalously
high with deep warm cloud processes. Keeping the Flash Flood Watch
in effect through 12z Thursday looks good for now, though the
additional round of convection Thursday afternoon across the
mountains might be enough to warrant another extension...confidence
just not high enough at this time with QPF in the 6-hr period from
18zThu-00zFri less than 1/2 inch (though with the antecedent
conditions, that might be all it takes). Problem is that instability
will increase, Thu afternoon, both the NAM and GFS are creeping
SBCAPEs upwards of 3000J/kg across the escarpment/foothills/adjacent
Piedmont which could seriously intensify convective rates.

That secondary wave of moisture gets caught up over the mountains
Thursday night into Friday morning and might have a slow start with
convective initiation initially across the Piedmont, but still
enough to increase afternoon Piedmont pops to high chance. Keep pops
going overnight across the mountains with likelies again by Friday
afternoon.

Should see a slow warming trend through the period, pushing 90 for a
high across the Piedmont by Friday afternoon and continued very
muggy (yuck)...heat indices might be pushing the mid-90s with the
dewpoints remaining quite high at around 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Tuesday: A southern tier ridge centered over Texas
will try to briefly ridge into our region Friday night into
Saturday but make little progress.  A weak surface frontal boundary
settles southward through the area to provide a very modest airmass
change. However, a digging northern stream trough will approach the
southern and central Appalachians Sunday and then cross the
mountains on Monday. This feature will enhance convection at a time
when CAPE values will be low on Monday. However, looking at Sunday
PM the GFS has 2000 to 3000 CAPE over the western tip of NC and the
upper Savannah Valley at the time when the EC has the axis of trough
crossing our region. Minor vortices crossing our area on Sunday
afternoon could spark strong convection over NE GA and adjacent
areas. Highest POPs Sunday and Monday along with warmer temps than
what we have had recently.  Above climo maxes on Saturday will dip
below climo by Monday, but with mild nighttime mins continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A mixture of MVFR/IFR/LIFR will continue
across the area thru the 18z TAF period. We have seen some cloud
to ground lightning activity commence over the past couple of hours
and expect thunderstorm coverage will increase thru the afternoon
hours. Heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible in stronger
storms thru the afternoon and into the evening. Shower coverage of
is expected to wane into the overnight hours, with mostly just rain
showers expected. Winds will remain out of the SE in the 5 to 10 kt
range and eventually veer around to a more SLY direction by tomorrow
afternoon.

Outlook: Expect continued rounds of scattered to widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms along with low cigs and briefly reduced
vsbys as tropical moisture lingers through at midweek. Drier air begins
to move into the area towards the end of the week, with some degree
of diurnal convection expected.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  91%     Med   70%     High  83%
KGSP       High  85%     High  83%     Med   76%     High  95%
KAVL       High  90%     Med   76%     High  97%     High  97%
KHKY       Med   78%     Low   57%     Low   56%     High  97%
KGMU       Med   75%     High  84%     High  80%     High  95%
KAND       Med   65%     Med   69%     Med   75%     High  95%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rainfall over the past two weeks across much of the forecast
area, particularly the mountains, has set the stage for serious
flooding and landslide issues to possibly develop with any
additional tropical rainfall through mid-week. Numerical model
profiles exhibiting precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2 inches,
and deep warm cloud layers in excess of 12 kft, will make for highly
efficient heavy rainfall processes and further increase the threat
of flash flooding and river flooding. Hydro problems will
likely continue through tonight, and possibly through Wednesday
night across the mountains.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for GAZ010.
     Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for GAZ017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
     Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for SCZ001>003.
     Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for SCZ004>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...DEO
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Corrected
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
523 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
300930-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
523 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the foothills and piedmont of
northeast Georgia and Upstate South Carolina, as well as the North
Carolina piedmont.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition to the flooding threat, thunderstorms embedded within
any bands of heavy rain showers may also produce cloud-to-ground
lightning strikes today and tonight. There is also a small chance of
isolated tornadoes or damaging downburst winds with a few of these
thunderstorms, with the greatest chance across northeast Georgia and
Upstate South Carolina.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Thursday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-300930-
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
523 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina, as well
as the North Carolina foothills.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition to the flooding threat, thunderstorms embedded within
any bands of heavy rain showers may also produce cloud-to-ground
lightning strikes today and tonight. There is also a small chance of
isolated tornadoes or damaging downburst winds with a few of these
thunderstorms, with the greatest chance across the far southwest
mountains of North Carolina.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Thursday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
449 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      3 SE BUSICK             35.74N 82.14W
05/29/2018                   MCDOWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS BOTH LANES BLOCKED WITH DIRT
            AND TREES ON NC80 JUST ABOVE SUGAR COVE. DOT ON SCENE.

&&

TPALMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
449 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

SCZ003-006-292130-
Greenville Mountains SC-Greater Greenville SC-
449 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT GREENVILLE COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM EDT...

At 448 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 15 miles south of
Hendersonville to 7 miles southeast of Greenville Downtown, and
moving north at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville, Greer, Mauldin, Taylors, Berea, Welcome, Travelers Rest
and Slater-Marietta.

Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 8249 3488 8249 3492 8252 3497 8253
      3498 8255 3498 8253 3501 8254 3502 8256
      3507 8257 3510 8259 3516 8243 3520 8223
      3485 8222 3469 8241
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 192DEG 15KT 3509 8246 3477 8231

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
506 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

NCZ035-036-056-068-502>504-506-508-292145-
Greater Rutherford NC-Iredell NC-Burke Mountains NC-Cleveland NC-
Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-Catawba NC-
506 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CATAWBA...SOUTHEASTERN
MCDOWELL...NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...ALEXANDER...IREDELL...SOUTHERN
CALDWELL...NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND AND BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM
EDT...

At 506 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles southeast of
Marion to 7 miles northeast of Statesville, and moving north at 20
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hickory, Statesville, Lenoir, Morganton, Newton, Taylorsville, St.
Stephens, Conover, Longview and Sawmills.

Torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 8082 3579 8073 3574 8075 3556 8141
      3557 8153 3555 8151 3554 8151 3544 8186
      3576 8196 3577 8194 3582 8197 3586 8192
      3603 8118 3603 8107 3606 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 167DEG 17KT 3560 8185 3585 8079

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
509 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE OLD FORT          35.66N 82.15W
05/29/2018                   MCDOWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY OFFICIAL REPORTED WATER FROM CANE CREEK
            SURROUNDING HOMES ON CANE CREEK ROAD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
536 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

SCZ003-006-007-012-292215-
Laurens SC-Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
536 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL LAURENS...
NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND WESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
EDT...

At 535 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles east of
Greenville Downtown to 12 miles north of Laurens, and moving north at
35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greer, Five Forks, Duncan, Lyman, Landrum, Wellford, Inman,
Campobello, Reidville and Lake Bowen.

Torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8228 3520 8223 3518 8200 3461 8206
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 179DEG 32KT 3488 8222 3468 8210

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
546 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
       ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WNW SUGAR HILL        35.61N 82.10W
05/29/2018                   MCDOWELL           NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA PHOTO OF LOWER HAW CREEK FLOODING OLD FORT
            SUGAR HILL ROAD IN SOUTHWEST MCDOWELL COUNTY.

&&