Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

527 
WGUS72 KGSP 291739
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
139 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

NCC021-089-111-149-161-292145-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-180529T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
McDowell NC-Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-Polk NC-Buncombe NC-
139 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...WESTERN RUTHERFORD...EASTERN HENDERSON...
WESTERN POLK AND EASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...

At 135 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
that heavy rain was falling over the area.  Rainfall amounts of 
nearly three inches of rain have fallen since 7 AM. Flash flooding 
is expected to begin shortly.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Black Mountain, Swannanoa, Fairview In Buncombe County, Tryon, Old 
Fort, Saluda, Chimney Rock State Park, and Bat Cave.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are possible in the warned 
area. The additional rain could trigger landslides near the Blue 
Ridge, particularly in the Hickory Nut Gorge and in the area between 
Black Mountain and Old Fort.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The additional heavy rain will increase the risk of landslides,
especially in areas where slides have occurred in the past. Be
especially alert if you are near a stream, especially at the base of
a mountain or in a cove. Watch for loose-moving soil and rocks or a
sudden increase in streamflow. Leave the area quickly if this is
observed. When driving along roads where the terrain is steep or
rocky, watch and listen for falling rocks, mud, trees and other
debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3575 8233 3570 8226 3575 8218 3564 8215
      3552 8215 3527 8222 3519 8214 3520 8229
      3518 8237 3521 8239 3520 8242 3560 8247
      3572 8242 3577 8234

$$

MOORE

289 
WGUS72 KGSP 291954
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
354 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

NCC021-089-111-149-161-292145-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-180529T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
McDowell NC-Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-Polk NC-Buncombe NC-
354 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...WESTERN RUTHERFORD...EASTERN HENDERSON...
WESTERN POLK AND EASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...

At 347 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
that heavy rain was falling over the area. Around an inch of rain 
has fallen since 1 PM. Flash flooding is expected to continue.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Columbus, Black Mountain, Swannanoa, Fairview In Buncombe County,
Tryon, Old Fort, Saluda, Chimney Rock State Park, Bat Cave and B.R.
Parkway-Craggy To Little Switzerland.

The Rocky Broad River at Bat Cave has risen to 8 feet. At 8 feet, 
homes and campgrounds along the Rocky Broad River will begin to 
flood.

The Swannanoa River at Black Mountain Park has reached 10.2 feet. At 
10 feet, Veterans Park flooding continues. Sections of River Trail 
Loop and The Oaks Trail are flooding. Veterans Park Drive may start 
to flood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Runoff from heavy rain into creeks and streams will cause sudden
increases in water levels and flows, even in areas where rainfall has
been light or nonexistent. Hikers, campers and other individuals
outdoors must immediately seek high ground and avoid all streams.

The additional heavy rain will increase the risk of landslides,
especially in areas where slides have occurred in the past. Be
especially alert if you are near a stream, especially at the base of
a mountain or in a cove. Watch for loose-moving soil and rocks or a
sudden increase in streamflow. Leave the area quickly if this is
observed. When driving along roads where the terrain is steep or
rocky, watch and listen for falling rocks, mud, trees and other
debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3575 8233 3570 8226 3575 8218 3564 8215
      3552 8215 3527 8222 3519 8214 3520 8229
      3518 8237 3521 8239 3520 8242 3560 8247
      3572 8242 3577 8234

$$

RWH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1035 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep tropical moisture will persist over the area through Wednesday
as the remnants of Alberto move northward from Alabama to Kentucky
and eventually to the Great Lakes. A moist airmass will persist into
Friday before southerly flow shifts more to the west. Slightly drier
air will mix in from the west over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1025 AM EDT Tuesday: A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
the entire CWFA as abundant tropical moisture continues to stream in
across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Subtropical
Depression Alberto continues to make gradual progression northward
late this morning as latest satellite imagery depicts the center of
circulation over south-central AL. Over the past hour or so, a lull
in precipitation has occurred over the Upstate and parts of the
Piedmont as cloud cover has sct out to some degree.

With the remnants of Alberto projected to move up into TN this
afternoon, a few breaks in the stratus layer and daytime heating are
expected across our FA. This will allow for the coverage of showers
and thunderstorms to return, becoming widespread in nature. As
guidance continues to suggest, CAPE values will climb to 1500 to
2000 J/kg along the I-85 corridor, along with 0-3km SRH 100 to 200
m2/s2 and limited low level wind shear becoming available. Thus, in
additional to localized flooding and mountain landslides, the risk
for severe weather becomes a concern as well. Latest CAMs continue
to highlight a few discrete cells developing along with a band of
convection this afternoon as the placement of our FA will be on the
east side of this system. Isolated brief/weak tornadoes and/or
downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. Again, localized flooding
and mountain landslides will continue to be a concern as well as
abundant tropical moisture continues to infiltrate into the area.
Periods of heavy rainfall are expected throughout the near term
forecast period. Given already saturated grounds, will also note
that, even a marginal wind gusts, it won't take much to bring down a
few trees. Into tonight, the severe weather risk is expected to
wane, as showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger.
Temperatures will remain around to just below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday: The remnant circulation of Alberto will
gradually get absorbed into the northern stream trough as it moves
north of the Ohio Valley toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday.
However, a continued south to southwest fetch of moisture will
persist along the southern Appalachians and continuing the FFA
through this period over the mountains still seems warranted given
the saturated conditions and PWAT values above 1.75 inches in
profiles.

The resultant trough axis will linger west of the Appalachians on
Thursday and then cross the region Friday. Low level flow will turn
westerly Thursday and then more NW on Friday, and this flow regime
should focus the best PoPs over the mountains both days, though
instability will require decent shower chances east of the mountains
as well. Temperatures will steadily rebound to about 4 to 7 degrees
above climo by Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday: A southern tier ridge will briefly build
heights back across the region from the west for the early half of
the weekend, as a weak surface frontal boundary settles southward
through the area to provide a very modest airmass change. However, a
digging northern stream trough will approach the southern and
central Appalachians Sunday and then cross the mountains on Monday.
There are considerable model differences in the strength and depth
of the late weekend/Monday system so will feature the highest chance
PoPs mainly across the northern tier, in line with the previous
forecasts. Above climo maxes on Saturday will dip below climo by
Monday, but with mild nighttime mins continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A mixture of MVFR/IFR/LIFR prevails across
the area this morning as bands of isolated to scattered showers and
a few embedded thunderstorms, low cigs, and intermittent periods of
patchy fog/heavy downpours persist. Do anticipate a lull in
precipitation as well as a possible brief improvement to MVFR
(possibly VFR in some locations) this morning as Subtropical
Depression Alberto continues to slowly trek northward through
central AL. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
again in the early afternoon hours as the system moves into TN,
allowing for afternoon daytime heating to occur and eventually
MVFR/IFR to return, prevailing through the remainder of the valid
TAF period. Heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible in
stronger storms throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Coverage
of activity is expected to wane into the overnight hours, with
VCSH/VCTS still possible. Winds will overall be ENE 5 to 10 kts,
gradually veering to the ESE this afternoon and persisting through
the end of the valid TAF period.

Outlook: Expect continued rounds of scattered to widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms along with low cigs and briefly reduced
vsbys as tropical moisture lingers through at least midweek. Drier
air begins to infiltrate in towards the end of the week, with
diurnal convection expected.

Confidence Table...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-12Z
KCLT       Med   79%     High  95%     High  90%     High  96%
KGSP       Med   79%     Med   73%     Med   66%     High  88%
KAVL       High  83%     High  83%     Med   66%     High 100%
KHKY       High  84%     Med   75%     High  89%     High  81%
KGMU       Med   79%     Med   75%     Med   65%     High  83%
KAND       High  97%     Med   69%     Med   62%     High  86%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rainfall over the past two weeks across much of the forecast
area, particularly the mountains, has set the stage for serious
flooding and landslide issues to possibly develop with any
additional tropical rainfall through mid-week. Numerical model
profiles exhibiting precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2 inches,
and deep warm cloud layers in excess of 12 kft, will make for highly
efficient heavy rainfall processes and further increase the threat
of flash flooding and river flooding. The latest 3/6 hour FFG
guidance values are generally running 2.0 to 3.5 inches and these
will be quite achievable in the expected waves of tropical rain
showers - especially across the higher terrain. Hydro problems will
likely continue through tonight, and possibly through Wednesday
night across the mountains.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for GAZ010.
     Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for GAZ017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
     Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for SCZ001>003.
     Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for SCZ004>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JPT/SGL
HYDROLOGY...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Corrected
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
523 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
300930-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
523 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the foothills and piedmont of
northeast Georgia and Upstate South Carolina, as well as the North
Carolina piedmont.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition to the flooding threat, thunderstorms embedded within
any bands of heavy rain showers may also produce cloud-to-ground
lightning strikes today and tonight. There is also a small chance of
isolated tornadoes or damaging downburst winds with a few of these
thunderstorms, with the greatest chance across northeast Georgia and
Upstate South Carolina.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Thursday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-300930-
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
523 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina, as well
as the North Carolina foothills.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition to the flooding threat, thunderstorms embedded within
any bands of heavy rain showers may also produce cloud-to-ground
lightning strikes today and tonight. There is also a small chance of
isolated tornadoes or damaging downburst winds with a few of these
thunderstorms, with the greatest chance across the far southwest
mountains of North Carolina.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Thursday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1052 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CORNELIA                34.51N 83.53W
05/29/2018  M3.25 INCH       HABERSHAM          GA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MEASURED SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1056 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GRANITE FALLS           35.80N 81.43W
05/29/2018  M1.65 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            1.65 INCHES IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES.

&&

TPALMER