Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2018
Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at May 19, 2018, 12:24 AM EDT for Caldwell County, North Carolina. It was in force for 2 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- May 19, 2018, 12:24 AM EDT (04:24 UTC)
- Expired
- May 19, 2018, 2:30 AM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- None
County Caldwell County, NC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 12:29 AM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | Collettsville, NC | WATER TWO FEET DEEP AT COLLETTSVILLE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL PARKING LOT, COMING OUT OF THE JOHNS RIVER. ADAKO ROAD AND COLLETTSVILLE ROAD CLOSED. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this flash flood warning; the first came 5 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 112 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 649 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 38 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 47 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
227 WGUS52 KGSP 190424 FFWGSP NCC027-190630- /O.NEW.KGSP.FF.W.0016.180519T0424Z-180519T0630Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1224 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018 The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... West central Caldwell County in western North Carolina... * Until 230 AM EDT. * At 1222 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain falling across the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring, with flood waters coming down the Johns River and Mulberry Creek toward Collettsville, specifically on Adako Road and Collettsville Road. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Collettsville. Excessive rainfall over the warned area will cause mud slides near steep terrain. The mud slide can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. In hilly and mountainous terrain, there are hundreds of low-water crossings which can be dangerous in heavy rain. Low-water crossings can be submerged by flood waters quickly and without warning. Never attempt to travel across flooded crossings. Find an alternate route. It takes only a few inches of swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away. When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message should describe the event and the specific location where it occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and other landmarks. && LAT...LON 3599 8158 3595 8158 3588 8171 3603 8161 $$ TDP
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 18, 10:53 PM EDT, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 18, 10:53 PM EDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1053 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will linger
into Saturday as a slow moving low pressure system impacts our
region. Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible until the low
departs. High temperatures will be near to just above normal and low
temperatures about ten degrees above normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1050 PM EDT Friday: Minor tweaks to temperatures to coincide
with latest trends as the rest of the near term forecast remains on
track.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through early Saturday
morning. Showers continue to redevelop/train across portions of the
Blue Ridge, with flooding issues/concerns as well. Elsewhere,
conditions remain quiet across northeastern GA and portions of
the upstate as latest radar trends depict light showers moving
up along the I-77 corridor, not yet to the NC/SC state line
attm. Overnight, anticipate activity to gradually decrease in
nature, though could not entirely rule out redevelopment across
any portions of the FA as guidance has not had the best handle
on the evolving situation today (or the past few days).
Otherwise, a broad upper level trof continues to spin across the
South maintaining deep and moist s/ly flow into the FA. This pattern
will change little during the period, with some n/ly lift expected
by Sat afternoon. Thunderstorms will once again be possible by mid-
day Sat within a persistent and high confidence synoptic pattern.
Mins overnight will be held abt 10 degrees F abv normal with
widespread low cloud cover. Maxes Sat will be right arnd normal and
with high sfc td/s it will feel rather muggy once again.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Friday: Subtropical anticyclone remains anchored
off the Southeast Atlantic coast throughout the period. Another
upper low, although weaker and not well defined, will move out of
the Gulf of Mexico into the Gulf coast states by Monday. These
features keep a moist south to southwest low level flow across the
area each day. The good news is the deep tropical moisture fetch
will not return during this period. However, instability will
increase each day, along with decent upper divergence, keeping the
threat of mainly diurnal convection in place. Greatest coverage
continues to be across the mountains both days with high end
scattered coverage elsewhere. Shear is relatively weak both days,
but surface delta theta-e values increase with steadily drying mid
levels. This leads to an increasing threat of severe thunderstorms
each day, but these should remain isolated as overall DCAPE values
remain on the low side. Heavy rain is possible but the threat is not
as widespread as in previous days. Still, the wet antecedent
conditions could make flooding possible with lower rainfall amounts.
Highs will be nearly steady around 5 degrees above normal. Lows will
be nearly steady as well but around 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday: Still little airmass change expected as the
medium range begins Monday night. Models are generally plagued by
disagreement in the finer details of the forecast, which
unfortunately make all the difference in a nebulous pattern like the
present one. A Bermuda high will remain off the east coast in the
Atlantic (welcome to summertime), with the southeast on the northern
periphery of an upper subtropical high. Some type of surface
stationary boundary will likely be laid over the Carolinas through
much of the next work week with little progression out of the area
expected. The GFS does spin up an upper/surface low over the
northern Gulf and swing it up towards our area Wednesday, but that
is likely an artifact of a known convective feedback problem in the
GFS (the parallel FV3 core has it too while the low is absent on all
other global models, suggesting this is a GFS model physics issue).
I've therefore favored the ECMWF through much of the medium range.
As far as sensible weather, the Bermuda high will induce weak
southerly flow over the area, though it is not as persistent our
stout as it has been over the past week. PWATs will remain elevated,
but in the absence of much large-scale forcing, a mostly diurnal
pattern favoring afternoon showers and thunderstorms will persist
through next week. Shower and thunderstorm coverage should be
decreased from this week, and chances of any flooding or severe
storms do not stand out any particular day next week at the moment.
The pattern we will enter into next week looks distinctly summer-
ish, as a matter of fact, just with a bit more moisture than usual
to work with. Max temperatures will increase a little to just above
average, with lows remaining about 10 degrees above average.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A mixture of VFR/MVFR will continue across
the area tonight, deteriorating to MVFR/IFR overnight, as showers
and isolated thunderstorms continue to propagate portions of the
area. Between pockets of heavier downpours along with areas of low
cigs and reduced visibilities (heavy rain and/or areas of fog), a
mixture of different flight restrictions is expected. On Saturday,
expect improvement to VFR as another round of VCSH/VCTS is expected
beginning as early as late morning. Southeast winds 5 to 10 kts will
persist.
Outlook: Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend with
isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA throughout the day/night periods and
deteriorating restrictions at times.
Confidence Table...
03-09Z 09-15Z 15-21Z 21-00Z
KCLT Med 70% High 92% High 87% High 100%
KGSP High 94% High 83% High 89% High 98%
KAVL Med 74% High 92% High 85% High 100%
KHKY High 81% High 90% High 85% High 100%
KGMU High 89% High 83% High 92% High 100%
KAND High 87% Med 72% High 87% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ033-049-050-
053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM EDT Saturday for SCZ002-003.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...SBK/SGL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...SGLHazardous weather outlook, May 18, 8:18 PM EDT, 4 hours 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 818 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-048-051-052-056>059-062-063- 068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ001-004>014-019-200030- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell- Davie-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson- Macon-Southern Jackson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus- Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell- Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Greater Oconee- Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York- Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood- 818 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the area through tonight. Slow-moving and training storms may produce torrential downpours over a short period of time, resulting in localized flash flooding. In addition to the heavy rain potential, cloud-to-ground lightning and brief gusty winds will be possible within any stronger storms. Gusty winds could blow down a few trees due to saturated soils. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. ..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ033-049-050-053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ002-003-200030- Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Transylvania-Henderson- Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains- Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Pickens Mountains- Greenville Mountains- 818 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. ..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. SGL
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 18, 10:39 PM EDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 ENE NEWLAND 36.12N 81.84W
05/18/2018 AVERY NC COUNTY OFFICIAL
COUNTY REPORTS ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING NEAR
GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN AREA OF HIGHWAYS 105 AND 184.
&&
HGLocal storm report, May 18, 10:45 PM EDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1025 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 SSE GLENWOOD 35.54N 81.95W
05/18/2018 MCDOWELL NC EMERGENCY MNGR
WATER RESCUES ARE UNDERWAY AT THE LUCKY STRIKE
CAMPGROUND.
&&
OUTLAWLocal storm report, May 18, 10:47 PM EDT, 1 hour 37 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1045 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 SW GLOBE 35.99N 81.76W
05/18/2018 CALDWELL NC COUNTY OFFICIAL
NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ALL AROUND MORTIMER DUE TO
FLOODING OF WILSON CREEK.
&&
HGLocal storm report, May 18, 10:50 PM EDT, 1 hour 34 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1050 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1014 PM FLASH FLOOD SALUDA 35.24N 82.35W
05/18/2018 POLK NC SOCIAL MEDIA
WATER OVER HOWARD GAP AND RHODODENDRON DRIVE. MUD SLIDE
OVER HOWARD GAP NEAR WARRIOR MOUNTAIN CHURCH.
&&
TPALMERLocal storm report, May 18, 10:52 PM EDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1052 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1045 PM DEBRIS FLOW 5 SW GLOBE 36.00N 81.78W
05/18/2018 CALDWELL NC COUNTY OFFICIAL
100 FT WIDE LANDSLIDE REPORTED ALONG EDGEMONT ROAD.
&&
HGLocal storm report, May 18, 11:24 PM EDT, 1 hour before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1124 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM DEBRIS FLOW 5 WNW COLUMBUS 35.27N 82.29W
05/18/2018 POLK NC PUBLIC
A MUDSLIDE HAS AFFECTED THE AREA ALONG GREEN RIVER COVE
ROAD. THE HOME OWNER WHO REPORTED THE SLIDE SAID HIS
HOUSE HAD SOME MUD AFFECT THE HOUSE BUT THE FULL EXTENT
WILL BE SEEN IN THE MORNING.
&&
OUTLAWThe office that day
Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 8:20 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GSP | Burke, McDowell | 3 hr |
| May 18, 9:56 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | GSP | Buncombe, Henderson, Polk, Rutherford | 4 hr |
| May 18, 10:25 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | GSP | Avery, Caldwell | 4 hr |
| May 18, 11:01 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Buncombe, Henderson | 8 hr |
| May 18, 11:12 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | GSP | Burke, McDowell | 5 hr |
| May 18, 11:24 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GSP | Rutherford | 3 hr |
| May 18, 11:32 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Avery, Buncombe, Madison, Mitchell, Yancey | 4 hr |
| May 19, 1:46 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GSP | Buncombe, Henderson, Polk, Rutherford | 6 hr |
| May 19, 2:15 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GSP | Avery, Caldwell | 18 hr |
| May 19, 4:20 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GSP | Burke, McDowell | 20 hr |
| May 19, 8:18 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GSP | Buncombe, Henderson, Polk, Rutherford | 12 hr |
| May 19, 8:40 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Alexander, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba, McDowell | 12 hr |
| May 19, 9:43 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Transylvania | 2 hr |
| May 19, 12:11 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Transylvania | 6 hr |
| May 19, 2:45 PM EDT | River Flood Advisory | GSP | Buncombe | 21 hr |
| May 19, 3:45 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Madison | 2 hr |
| May 19, 3:51 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Madison | 24 min |
| May 19, 4:11 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Yancey | 34 min |
| May 19, 7:55 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GSP | Polk, Rutherford | 2 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2018Every flash flood warning in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.