Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2018

Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

May 18, 2018Burke County, McDowell County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at May 18, 2018, 11:12 PM EDT for Burke County, McDowell County, North Carolina. It was in force for 5 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
May 18, 2018, 11:12 PM EDT (03:12 UTC)
Expired
May 19, 2018, 4:15 AM EDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Burke County, NC, McDowell County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
May 19, 1:00 AM EDTFLASH FLOODGlenwood, NCEMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS FLOODING CONDITIONS ALONG THE SECOND BROAD RIVER SOUTH OF GLENWOOD WHERE THREE CAMPGROUNDS WERE EVACUATED OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL DRIVEWAYS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WASHED AWAY BY HIGH WATER AROUND GLENWOOD.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this flash flood warning; the first came 108 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2018-05-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 112 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2018-05-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 38 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
112 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-3 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
649 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
38 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
47 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

046 
WGUS52 KGSP 190312
FFWGSP
NCC023-111-190815-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.W.0015.180519T0312Z-180519T0815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1112 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  McDowell County in western North Carolina...
  Western Burke County in western North Carolina...

* Until 415 AM EDT.

* At 1108 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a series of heavy rain 
  producing showers and thunderstorms moving repeatedly northward 
  across McDowell and Burke Counties. These showers were producing 
  rainfall at rates of one-half inch per hour, with the rain falling 
  on areas already saturated by 2 to 4 inches over the past 6 hours. 

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Morganton, Marion, Glen Alpine, Old Fort, Linville Falls, Lake 
  James State Park, Table Rock, Lake James, Nebo and Ashford. 
  Serious flooding will develop along the Johns River north of 
  Morganton. Expect flooding and road closures on Johns River Road, 
  Old Johns River Road, Valley View Circle, Highway 90, Corpening 
  Road, and Adako Road. Also hard hit by flooding will the be area 
  from Glenwood to Nebo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross
water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few
inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is 
not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Be especially 
cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of 
flooding.

Numerous roads, parking lots and bridges will be threatened by heavy
rain and rapidly rising streams and creeks. Please pay close
attention to road signs indicating a flood-prone area. Obey all
barricades, even if water is not currently over the road. Barricades
are in place for your protection and indicate areas where flooding
can occur rapidly and without warning.

The additional heavy rain will increase the risk of landslides,
especially in areas where slides have occurred in the past. Be
especially alert if you are near a stream, especially at the base of
a mountain or in a cove. Watch for loose-moving soil and rocks or a
sudden increase in streamflow. Leave the area quickly if this is
observed. When driving along roads where the terrain is steep or
rocky, watch and listen for falling rocks, mud, trees and other
debris.

When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides
flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on
our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message
should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and
other landmarks.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 8178 3588 8171 3584 8163 3561 8175
      3554 8186 3552 8197 3555 8200 3552 8216
      3559 8229 3562 8227 3568 8229 3570 8228
      3573 8219 3580 8216 3585 8210 3586 8204
      3588 8202 3587 8200 3595 8196 3600 8190

$$

HG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 18, 10:53 PM EDT, 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 18, 10:53 PM EDT, 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1053 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The threat for numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will linger
into Saturday as a slow moving low pressure system impacts our
region. Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible until the low
departs. High temperatures will be near to just above normal and low
temperatures about ten degrees above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1050 PM EDT Friday: Minor tweaks to temperatures to coincide
with latest trends as the rest of the near term forecast remains on
track.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through early Saturday
morning. Showers continue to redevelop/train across portions of the
Blue Ridge, with flooding issues/concerns as well. Elsewhere,
conditions remain quiet across northeastern GA and portions of
the upstate as latest radar trends depict light showers moving
up along the I-77 corridor, not yet to the NC/SC state line
attm. Overnight, anticipate activity to gradually decrease in
nature, though could not entirely rule out redevelopment across
any portions of the FA as guidance has not had the best handle
on the evolving situation today (or the past few days).

Otherwise, a broad upper level trof continues to spin across the
South maintaining deep and moist s/ly flow into the FA. This pattern
will change little during the period, with some n/ly lift expected
by Sat afternoon. Thunderstorms will once again be possible by mid-
day Sat within a persistent and high confidence synoptic pattern.
Mins overnight will be held abt 10 degrees F abv normal with
widespread low cloud cover. Maxes Sat will be right arnd normal and
with high sfc td/s it will feel rather muggy once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Friday: Subtropical anticyclone remains anchored
off the Southeast Atlantic coast throughout the period. Another
upper low, although weaker and not well defined, will move out of
the Gulf of Mexico into the Gulf coast states by Monday. These
features keep a moist south to southwest low level flow across the
area each day. The good news is the deep tropical moisture fetch
will not return during this period. However, instability will
increase each day, along with decent upper divergence, keeping the
threat of mainly diurnal convection in place. Greatest coverage
continues to be across the mountains both days with high end
scattered coverage elsewhere. Shear is relatively weak both days,
but surface delta theta-e values increase with steadily drying mid
levels. This leads to an increasing threat of severe thunderstorms
each day, but these should remain isolated as overall DCAPE values
remain on the low side. Heavy rain is possible but the threat is not
as widespread as in previous days. Still, the wet antecedent
conditions could make flooding possible with lower rainfall amounts.
Highs will be nearly steady around 5 degrees above normal. Lows will
be nearly steady as well but around 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday: Still little airmass change expected as the
medium range begins Monday night. Models are generally plagued by
disagreement in the finer details of the forecast, which
unfortunately make all the difference in a nebulous pattern like the
present one. A Bermuda high will remain off the east coast in the
Atlantic (welcome to summertime), with the southeast on the northern
periphery of an upper subtropical high. Some type of surface
stationary boundary will likely be laid over the Carolinas through
much of the next work week with little progression out of the area
expected. The GFS does spin up an upper/surface low over the
northern Gulf and swing it up towards our area Wednesday, but that
is likely an artifact of a known convective feedback problem in the
GFS (the parallel FV3 core has it too while the low is absent on all
other global models, suggesting this is a GFS model physics issue).
I've therefore favored the ECMWF through much of the medium range.

As far as sensible weather, the Bermuda high will induce weak
southerly flow over the area, though it is not as persistent our
stout as it has been over the past week. PWATs will remain elevated,
but in the absence of much large-scale forcing, a mostly diurnal
pattern favoring afternoon showers and thunderstorms will persist
through next week. Shower and thunderstorm coverage should be
decreased from this week, and chances of any flooding or severe
storms do not stand out any particular day next week at the moment.
The pattern we will enter into next week looks distinctly summer-
ish, as a matter of fact, just with a bit more moisture than usual
to work with. Max temperatures will increase a little to just above
average, with lows remaining about 10 degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A mixture of VFR/MVFR will continue across
the area tonight, deteriorating to MVFR/IFR overnight, as showers
and isolated thunderstorms continue to propagate portions of the
area. Between pockets of heavier downpours along with areas of low
cigs and reduced visibilities (heavy rain and/or areas of fog), a
mixture of different flight restrictions is expected. On Saturday,
expect improvement to VFR as another round of VCSH/VCTS is expected
beginning as early as late morning. Southeast winds 5 to 10 kts will
persist.

Outlook: Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend with
isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA throughout the day/night periods and
deteriorating restrictions at times.

Confidence Table...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-00Z
KCLT       Med   70%     High  92%     High  87%     High 100%
KGSP       High  94%     High  83%     High  89%     High  98%
KAVL       Med   74%     High  92%     High  85%     High 100%
KHKY       High  81%     High  90%     High  85%     High 100%
KGMU       High  89%     High  83%     High  92%     High 100%
KAND       High  87%     Med   72%     High  87%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ033-049-050-
     053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM EDT Saturday for SCZ002-003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...SBK/SGL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...SGL
Hazardous weather outlook, May 18, 8:18 PM EDT, 2 hours 54 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
818 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-048-051-052-056>059-062-063-
068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ001-004>014-019-200030-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-
Macon-Southern Jackson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
818 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move
across the area through tonight. Slow-moving and training storms may
produce torrential downpours over a short period of time, resulting
in localized flash flooding. In addition to the heavy rain potential,
cloud-to-ground lightning and brief gusty winds will be possible
within any stronger storms. Gusty winds could blow down a few trees
due to saturated soils.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-049-050-053-064-065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ002-003-200030-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
818 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

SGL

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 18, 10:23 PM EDT, 49 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1023 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N SALUDA              35.25N 82.35W
05/18/2018  M2.62 INCH       POLK               NC   COCORAHS

            2.62 INCHES IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. NEAR THE TOP OF A RIDGE.

&&

OUTLAW
Local storm report, May 18, 10:39 PM EDT, 33 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ENE NEWLAND           36.12N 81.84W
05/18/2018                   AVERY              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY REPORTS ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING NEAR
            GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN AREA OF HIGHWAYS 105 AND 184.

&&

HG
Local storm report, May 18, 10:45 PM EDT, 27 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSE GLENWOOD          35.54N 81.95W
05/18/2018                   MCDOWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RESCUES ARE UNDERWAY AT THE LUCKY STRIKE
            CAMPGROUND.

&&

OUTLAW
Local storm report, May 18, 10:47 PM EDT, 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW GLOBE              35.99N 81.76W
05/18/2018                   CALDWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ALL AROUND MORTIMER DUE TO
            FLOODING OF WILSON CREEK.

&&

HG
Local storm report, May 18, 10:50 PM EDT, 22 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1050 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SALUDA                  35.24N 82.35W
05/18/2018                   POLK               NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            WATER OVER HOWARD GAP AND RHODODENDRON DRIVE. MUD SLIDE
            OVER HOWARD GAP NEAR WARRIOR MOUNTAIN CHURCH.

&&

TPALMER
Local storm report, May 18, 10:52 PM EDT, 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1052 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      5 SW GLOBE              36.00N 81.78W
05/18/2018                   CALDWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            100 FT WIDE LANDSLIDE REPORTED ALONG EDGEMONT ROAD.

&&

HG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 18, 8:20 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPBurke, McDowell3 hr
May 18, 9:56 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPBuncombe, Henderson, Polk, Rutherford4 hr
May 18, 10:25 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPAvery, Caldwell4 hr
May 18, 11:01 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPBuncombe, Henderson8 hr
May 18, 11:24 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPRutherford3 hr
May 18, 11:32 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPAvery, Buncombe, Madison, Mitchell, Yancey4 hr
May 19, 12:24 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPCaldwell2 hr
May 19, 1:46 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPBuncombe, Henderson, Polk, Rutherford6 hr
May 19, 2:15 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPAvery, Caldwell18 hr
May 19, 4:20 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPBurke, McDowell20 hr
May 19, 8:18 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPBuncombe, Henderson, Polk, Rutherford12 hr
May 19, 8:40 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPAlexander, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba, McDowell12 hr
May 19, 9:43 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPTransylvania2 hr
May 19, 12:11 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPTransylvania6 hr
May 19, 2:45 PM EDTRiver Flood AdvisoryGSPBuncombe21 hr
May 19, 3:45 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPMadison2 hr
May 19, 3:51 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMadison24 min
May 19, 4:11 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPYancey34 min
May 19, 7:55 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPPolk, Rutherford2 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2018Every flash flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.