Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
321 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Outflow from showers and thunderstorms over northern Wisconsin
and Lake Michigan today kept the warm front from lifting as far
north as expected earlier. As a result, high temperatures today
did not reach even reach the 80s in some locations. The warm front
is expected to move north tonight, with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms especially north of the boundary.

The warm front will likely make it to the Michigan border by
Sunday afternoon, making Father's day quite warm and humid, except
right at the lakeshore. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s will produce heat
indices in the mid to upper 90s in many places. Heat advisories
could be issued for central and east central Wisconsin if it gets
warmer than expected.

A cold front will move into central and northcentral Wisconsin
Sunday afternoon, and to eastern Wisconsin during the evening. The
very warm and humid conditions combined with the convergence along
the front should produce some strong to severe thunderstorms with
large hail and strong winds.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Models keep southwest flow in place across the region through the
early portions of the extended period. This will keep shower and
thunderstorm chances in place through Monday. As the sub-
tropical ridge begins to break down, dry conditions will move in
for the middle of next week before the next low pressure system
kicks over from the Rockies and into the Central Plains, bringing
with it another shot at some active weather at the end of the work
week.

Sunday night into Monday will be much like the earlier parts of
the weekend with lingering shower and thunderstorm chances across
northern, central, and northeastern Wisconsin. Ample instability
will be in the region, but with little shear, anticipate the
organized severe threat to consist primarily of wind and flooding,
with the isolated potential for large hail. Precipitable water
values around 2 inches coupled with the chance to see some
training storms will keep the flood risk at the forefront,
especially for areas that have already seen heavy rainfall over
the weekend.

Monday the cold front will come through the region, bringing with
it another shot at active weather. The timing of this front will
affect the overall severe chances during the day, with a later
arrival increasing severe chances in the evening, as instability
builds through the day. Once the front is through, a few lingering
showers are possible, but drier conditions will arrive by Tuesday
evening through the midweek. Models then begin to suggest the
next low pressure system will bring active weather towards the end
of next week, but its too early yet to get the timing down for
this system.

Temperatures will be above normal Monday, near normal Tuesday, and
then remain a few degrees above normal through the end of next
week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat Jun 16
2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible north
of a slow moving warm front that stretched roughly from Eau Claire
to Wisconsin Rapids at 19z. The front will move slowly north this
afternoon and tonight. MVFR ceilings are possible north of the
warm front as well. A cold front will move across the area Sunday
afternoon and evening and bring a line of showers and storms and
possible strong winds and hail.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Heavy rains from the last two days combined with several more
rounds of heavy rainfall could produce some flash flooding in
Oneida and Vilas counties tonight through Monday.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for WIZ005-010.
&&

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......RDM
HYDROLOGY......RDM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
308 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-172015-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
308 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible tonight, especially over north central
Wisconsin. A few storms could produce heavy rain, gusty winds and
localized flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Vilas
and Oneida counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

There is a slight chance of severe thunderstorms over most of the
area Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as a cold front moves
through the state. Large hail and damaging winds are possible.
The storms could also produce heavy rainfall and pose a risk of
flooding, especially across north-central Wisconsin. A Flash
Flood Watch remains in effect for Vilas and Oneida Counties
through Monday afternoon.

Hot and humid conditions are expected Sunday, with heat indices in
the middle to upper 90s across central and east central Wisconsin.
Spend some time in the shade or air conditioned buildings during
the hottest part of the day.

There is a chance of thunderstorms late next week. It is too
early to determine if any of these storms would become severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Sunday and Sunday night.

LMZ521-522-541>543-172015-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
308 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will pose a hazard to boaters on the lake
and bay at times tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday through Monday night.
Some storms could produce strong winds and hail Sunday afternoon
or Sunday night. Dense fog is also possible at times through
Monday, especially on the lake.

RDM/Eckberg

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
524 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W WAUTOMA             44.06N 89.30W
06/16/2018                   WAUSHARA           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THREE TREES DOWN APPROX. 1 TO 2 MILES WEST OF WAUTOMA.
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KLB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
533 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018

WIZ037-038-162315-
Waupaca WI-Outagamie WI-
533 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAUPACA AND
SOUTHWESTERN OUTAGAMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 532 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fremont, or 7 miles southeast of Waupaca, moving east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail, winds in excess of 40 mph and torrential rainfall
will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  New London around 550 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Stephensville, Medina,
Royalton, Northport, Readfield, Greenville, Dale, Shiocton, Weyauwega
and Hortonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4439 8906 4448 8853 4424 8847 4424 8898
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 261DEG 28KT 4429 8892

Eckberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
602 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018

WIZ005-010-170000-
Vilas WI-Oneida WI-
602 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN VILAS AND NORTH
CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 602 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lac Du Flambeau, or 22 miles southeast of Turtle Flambeau Flowage,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Vilas
and north central Oneida Counties, including the following
locations... Arbor Vitae, Sayner, Trout Lake, Hazelhurst, Star Lake,
Woodruff, St Germain, Lake Tomahawk and Minocqua.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4612 8944 4587 8925 4572 8975 4595 8995
      4602 8991
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 242DEG 21KT 4591 8977

Eckberg