Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Green Bay, WI

692 
WGUS63 KGRB 162007
FFAGRB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
307 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...

.Periods of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are 
expected through Monday afternoon across north central Wisconsin.
Recent heavy rain and the additional rainfall will result in an 
increased risk for flash flooding, especially for locations near 
creeks and streams and in low-lying areas.

WIZ005-010-170415-
/O.CON.KGRB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180618T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Vilas-Oneida-
Including the cities of Eagle River, Lac Du Flambeau, 
and Rhinelander
307 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of north central Wisconsin, including the following 
  areas, Oneida and Vilas counties. 

* Through Monday afternoon

* Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
  Monday afternoon. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain, with 
  locally higher amounts are possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

722 
WGUS63 KGRB 170203
FFAGRB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
903 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...

.Periods of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
expected through Monday afternoon across north central Wisconsin.
Recent heavy rain and the additional rainfall will result in an
increased risk for flash flooding, especially for locations near
creeks and streams and in low-lying areas.

WIZ005-010-171100-
/O.CON.KGRB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180618T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Vilas-Oneida-
Including the cities of Eagle River, Lac Du Flambeau, 
and Rhinelander
903 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of north central Wisconsin, including the following 
  areas, Oneida and Vilas. 

* Through Monday afternoon

* Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected 
  through Monday afternoon. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain, 
  with locally higher amounts, are possible. 

* Flash flooding of urban areas, creeks and small streams may
  occur due to excessive rainfall.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
Kieckbusch

122 
WGUS63 KGRB 170914
FFAGRB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
414 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...

.Periods of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
expected through Monday afternoon across north central Wisconsin.
Recent heavy rain and the additional rainfall will result in an
increased risk for flash flooding.

WIZ005-010-171715-
/O.CON.KGRB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180618T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Vilas-Oneida-
Including the cities of Eagle River, Lac Du Flambeau, 
and Rhinelander
414 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of north central Wisconsin, including the following
  counties...Oneida and Vilas. 

* Through Monday afternoon

* Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected 
  through Monday afternoon. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain, 
  with locally higher amounts, are possible. 

* Flash flooding of urban areas, creeks and small streams may 
  occur due to excessive rainfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

342 
WGUS63 KGRB 171701
FFAGRB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...

.Periods of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected
through Monday afternoon in north central Wisconsin. Recent heavy
rain and the additional rainfall could result in flash flooding.

WIZ005-010-180115-
/O.CON.KGRB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180618T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Vilas-Oneida-
Including the cities of Eagle River, Lac Du Flambeau, 
and Rhinelander
1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of north central Wisconsin, including the following
  counties, Oneida and Vilas. 

* Through Monday afternoon

* Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected 
  through Monday afternoon. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain, 
  with locally higher amounts, are possible. 

* Flash flooding of urban areas, creeks and small streams may 
  occur due to excessive rainfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

284 
WGUS63 KGRB 171859
FFAGRB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
159 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...

.Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected in central
and northern Wisconsin, as a cold front moves slowly east across 
the region. Recent heavy rains and the expected rainfall could 
result in flash flooding.

WIZ011>013-018-019-021-030-073-180300-
/O.EXA.KGRB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180618T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-Langlade-
Northern Oconto County-Marathon-Southern Marinette County-
Including the cities of Crandon, Aurora, Commonwealth, 
Spread Eagle, Niagara, Wausaukee, Merrill, Tomahawk, Antigo, 
Mountain, Lakewood, Townsend, Wausau, Harmony, Peshtigo, 
Porterfield, Crivitz, High Falls Reservoir, Loomis, 
and Middle Inlet
159 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Green Bay has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of central Wisconsin,
  north central Wisconsin, and northeast Wisconsin, including the
  following areas, in central Wisconsin, Marathon county. In north
  central Wisconsin, Langlade and Lincoln counties. In northeast 
  Wisconsin, Florence, Forest, Northern Marinette County, Northern
  Oconto County, and Southern Marinette County. 

* Through Monday afternoon

* Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected tonight
  through early Monday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, with
  locally higher amounts, are possible. 

* Flash flooding of urban areas, creeks and small streams may 
  occur due to excessive rainfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

WIZ005-010-180300-
/O.CON.KGRB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180618T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Vilas-Oneida-
Including the cities of Eagle River, Lac Du Flambeau, 
and Rhinelander
159 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of north central Wisconsin, including the following 
  areas, Oneida and Vilas counties. 

* Through Monday afternoon

* Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected tonight
  through early Monday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, with
  locally higher amounts, are possible. 

* Flash flooding of urban areas, creeks and small streams may 
  occur due to excessive rainfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

651 
WGUS63 KGRB 172236
FFAGRB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
536 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...

.Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected in
central and northern Wisconsin, as a cold front moves slowly east
across the region. Recent heavy rains and the expected rainfall
could result in flash flooding.

WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021-030-073-180500-
/O.CON.KGRB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180618T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Northern Oconto County-Marathon-
Southern Marinette County-
Including the cities of Eagle River, Lac Du Flambeau, 
Rhinelander, Crandon, Aurora, Commonwealth, Spread Eagle, 
Niagara, Wausaukee, Merrill, Tomahawk, Antigo, Mountain, 
Lakewood, Townsend, Wausau, Harmony, Peshtigo, Porterfield, 
Crivitz, High Falls Reservoir, Loomis, and Middle Inlet
536 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Wisconsin, north central Wisconsin, and 
  northeast Wisconsin, including the following areas, in central 
  Wisconsin, Marathon. In north central Wisconsin, Langlade, 
  Lincoln, Oneida, and Vilas. In northeast Wisconsin, Florence, 
  Forest, Northern Marinette County, Northern Oconto County, and 
  Southern Marinette County. 

* Through Monday afternoon

* Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected tonight 
  through early Monday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, 
  with locally higher amounts, are possible. 

* Flash flooding of urban areas, creeks and small streams may 
  occur due to excessive rainfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
TSK

573 
WGUS63 KGRB 180305
FFAGRB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1005 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...

.Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected in
central and northern Wisconsin, as a cold front moves slowly east
across the region. Recent heavy rains and the expected rainfall
could result in flash flooding.

WIZ005-010>012-180415-
/O.CAN.KGRB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180618T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-
Including the cities of Eagle River, Lac Du Flambeau, 
Rhinelander, Crandon, Aurora, Commonwealth, and Spread Eagle
1005 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of north central Wisconsin and
northeast Wisconsin has been cancelled.

$$

WIZ013-018-019-021-030-073-181115-
/O.CON.KGRB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180618T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-Langlade-Northern Oconto County-
Marathon-Southern Marinette County-
Including the cities of Niagara, Wausaukee, Merrill, Tomahawk, 
Antigo, Mountain, Lakewood, Townsend, Wausau, Harmony, Peshtigo, 
Porterfield, Crivitz, High Falls Reservoir, Loomis, 
and Middle Inlet
1005 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Wisconsin, north central Wisconsin, and 
  northeast Wisconsin, including the following areas, in central 
  Wisconsin, Marathon. In north central Wisconsin, Langlade and 
  Lincoln. In northeast Wisconsin, Northern Marinette County, 
  Northern Oconto County, and Southern Marinette County. 

* Through Monday afternoon

* Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected overnight
  through early Monday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is possible.
 
* Flash flooding of urban areas, creeks and small streams may 
  occur due to excessive rainfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
TSK

483 
WGUS63 KGRB 180411
FFAGRB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1111 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...

.Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected in
central and northeast Wisconsin, as a cold front moves slowly 
southeast across the region. Recent heavy rains and the expected 
rainfall could result in flash flooding.

WIZ020-031-035>037-074-181100-
/O.EXA.KGRB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180618T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Menominee-Shawano-Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Southern Oconto County-
Including the cities of Keshena, Neopit, Shawano, Marshfield, 
Wisconsin Rapids, Stevens Point, Plover, New London, Waupaca, 
Clintonville, Little Suamico, Sobieski, Brookside, Oconto, 
and Pensaukee
1111 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Green Bay has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of central Wisconsin and 
  northeast Wisconsin, including the following areas, in central 
  Wisconsin, Portage and Wood. In northeast Wisconsin, 
  Menominee, Shawano, Southern Oconto County, and Waupaca. 

* Through Monday afternoon

* Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected 
  overnight through early Monday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of 
  rain is possible. 

* Flash flooding of urban areas, creeks and small streams may 
  occur due to excessive rainfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

WIZ013-018-019-021-030-073-181100-
/O.CON.KGRB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180618T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-Langlade-Northern Oconto County-
Marathon-Southern Marinette County-
Including the cities of Niagara, Wausaukee, Merrill, Tomahawk, 
Antigo, Mountain, Lakewood, Townsend, Wausau, Harmony, Peshtigo, 
Porterfield, Crivitz, High Falls Reservoir, Loomis, 
and Middle Inlet
1111 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Wisconsin, north central Wisconsin, and 
  northeast Wisconsin, including the following areas, in central 
  Wisconsin, Marathon. In north central Wisconsin, Langlade and 
  Lincoln. In northeast Wisconsin, Northern Marinette County, 
  Northern Oconto County, and Southern Marinette County. 

* Through Monday afternoon

* Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected 
  overnight through early Monday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of 
  rain is possible. 

* Flash flooding of urban areas, creeks and small streams may 
  occur due to excessive rainfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
TSK

685 
WGUS63 KGRB 180910
FFAGRB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
410 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...

.Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected in
central and northeast Wisconsin, as a cold front moves slowly
southeast across the region. Recent heavy rains and the expected
rainfall could result in flash flooding.

WIZ013-021-073-074-181015-
/O.CAN.KGRB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180618T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Marinette County-Northern Oconto County-
Southern Marinette County-Southern Oconto County-
Including the cities of Niagara, Wausaukee, Mountain, Lakewood, 
Townsend, Harmony, Peshtigo, Porterfield, Crivitz, 
High Falls Reservoir, Loomis, Middle Inlet, Little Suamico, 
Sobieski, Brookside, Oconto, and Pensaukee
410 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for Marinette and Oconto counties has been 
cancelled.

$$

WIZ018>020-030-031-035>037-181800-
/O.CON.KGRB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180618T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lincoln-Langlade-Menominee-Marathon-Shawano-Wood-Portage-Waupaca-
Including the cities of Merrill, Tomahawk, Antigo, Keshena, 
Neopit, Wausau, Shawano, Marshfield, Wisconsin Rapids, 
Stevens Point, Plover, New London, Waupaca, and Clintonville
410 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Wisconsin including the following areas...
  Marathon, Portage, Wood, Langlade, Lincoln, Menominee, Shawano,
  and Waupaca. 

* Until 1 PM CDT this afternoon

* Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected 
  overnight through early Monday. An additional 1 to 2 inches of 
  rain is possible. 

* Flash flooding of urban areas, creeks and small streams may 
  occur due to excessive rainfall. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

478 
WGUS63 KGRB 181329
FFAGRB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
829 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

...THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE ENDED...

.The slow moving cold front that brought heavy rain to the area 
was exiting the area this morning, and only lighter rain showers 
are expected.

WIZ018>020-030-031-035>037-181430-
/O.CAN.KGRB.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180618T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lincoln-Langlade-Menominee-Marathon-Shawano-Wood-Portage-Waupaca-
Including the cities of Merrill, Tomahawk, Antigo, Keshena, 
Neopit, Wausau, Shawano, Marshfield, Wisconsin Rapids, 
Stevens Point, Plover, New London, Waupaca, and Clintonville
829 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Wisconsin, north
central Wisconsin, and northeast Wisconsin has been cancelled. The
heavy rains have diminished, and only light showers are expected.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
327 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Early this morning some fog is possible as the very wet ground
will combine with some radiational cooling with breaks in the
clouds and falling temperatures. Any fog that forms this morning
should mix out quickly after sunrise.

Another difficult forecast is on tap for northeast Wisconsin with
outflow and frontal boundaries across the entire region along with
shortwaves embedded in the flow. To add further confusion models
continue to offer differing opinions on how convection will evolve
over the next few days.

Current thinking is that the south will have the best shot at
remaining dry today and tonight with a chance at another round of
showers and thunderstorms across north-central and northeast
Wisconsin as several shortwaves ride along the mid level ridge in
place across the western Great Lakes. Any storms that form today
and tonight have a marginal risk for severe weather, especially
across the north where MUCAPEs are forecast to get as high as 4000
to 5000 J/kg. The main limiting factor will be the wind field as
bulk shear values will only be around 20 knots. Therefore pulse
type severe is the main anticipated mode if storms become severe
today and tonight. Although highs across the south are expected to
get to around 90 degrees, lingering outflow boundaries and clouds
should prevent heat index values from reaching Heat Advisory
criteria (100 degrees) this afternoon. Despite this, heat index
values today could reach an uncomfortable middle to upper 90s
across central and east-central Wisconsin away from the lake.

By Sunday the frontal boundary approaches northwest Wisconsin,
bringing the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms to
north-central Wisconsin. Any storms that form across north-central
Wisconsin Sunday will have 3000 to 4000 J/kg of MUCAPE to tap into
along with increased bulk shear values of 20 to 30 knots. A
shortwave is progged to track across this region on Sunday along
the sagging frontal boundary, which will assist in storm
development. Given the instability and better shear along with
dynamics there is a slight risk for severe weather on Sunday,
particularly Sunday afternoon when instability will be maximized.

Meanwhile, further south temperatures are expected to soar into
the lower to middle 90s with dew points around 70 degrees on
Sunday. This should cause heat index values to reach around 100
degrees during the afternoon hours, possibly necessitating a Heat
Advisory with subsequent forecast issuances. The main caveat is
where convection will occur today and tonight and what sort of
outflow boundaries and remaining cloud debris get left behind
across the western Great Lakes on Sunday. Given the high degree of
uncertainty regarding convection today and tonight will hold off
on any heat headlines for Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

Models continue to be in good agreement with the overall synoptic
setup through early next week as the sub-tropical ridge flattens
and a deep cut off low pressure system settles into the western
U.S. By the middle to end of next week, models have slight
differences on when the western low will eject out into the
Plains. Main forecast challenge will be timing of a frontal
passage (and associated precip) early in the week, severe/flooding
chances and when the next chance of showers/storms arrives in the
mid to late week.

Shower/storm activity is likely across the region Sunday night
into Monday as the frontal boundary will remain situated somewhere
across central or northern WI Sunday evening and a low level jet
pointed into the region. Where the heaviest precip will occur will
again be a challenge to pin down this far out as activity on
Sunday will determine where the low level jet, any outflow
boundaries, and frontal boundary will end up. Precipitable waters
remain in the 1.5 to 2.25 inch range ahead of the boundary, so
heavy rain and flooding will continue to be a threat where the
activity occurs. Severe weather threat looks highest Sunday
evening as best instability will be present. But any complex of
storms could track across the area through the night, bringing a
hail and damaging wind threat. On Monday, best severe weather
chances stay south of the area if the timing holds, as instability
will be difficult to come by this far north due to precip and
cloud cover as the boundary makes it way through the area before
peak heating. If the front gets hung up at all, instability would
be able to build ahead of the front across central and east
central WI and severe weather chances would increase as another
round/complex of storms forms along/near the boundary.

The flattening ridge and high pressure building in from the
northern Plains will continue to push the boundary south Monday
night into Tuesday. Models is good agreement the front will make
it near the IL border Monday night, however they differ on if
precip will linger north of the boundary. Canadian/NAM actually
show another complex of storms moving across the area, while the
GFS and ECMWF push the system far enough to keep the area dry on
Tuesday. Will use a blend for now, which gives the area slight
chance POPs. Dewpoints look to fall into the 50s to around 60, so
relief from the muggy conditions is expected.

Wednesday and Thursday look dry as a high pressure ridge shifts
eastward into the western Great Lakes. Temps look to be slightly
above normal with comfortable humidity levels. Chances for showers
and storms looks to return at the end of the week as the high
pressure ridge slides to our east and a shortwave trough
approaches from the west.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

Most of the ongoing convection over central and east central WI
(as of 0330z/Sat) should be out of the TAF sites by issuance time,
so quiet conditions are anticipated early in the period. The
exception may be some patchy fog and some borderline LLWS in parts
of central and east central WI.

Later on, the southwesterly low-level jet is expected to veer
west, which should focus the best lift over far northeast WI.
Scattered convection should move out of far NE WI Saturday
morning, as additional storms develop over north central WI due
to the arrival of a short-wave trough. A small chance of storms
may persist at mainly the RHI TAF site in the afternoon and
evening, due to the presence of a warm front, but confidence in
the details is low.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

As dewpoints climb today, dense fog is expected to develop on
Lake Michigan. The fog is likely to persist tonight as winds stay
southerly. On Sunday, winds are expected to veer slightly, which
could push the fog offshore for some locations, but spots toward
northern Lake Michigan may see the fog continue through the day.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

MRMS estimates 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts close to
5 inches, fell across far north central Wisconsin in the last 24
hours. Given several more rounds of heavy rain are expected
through Monday with PWAT values of 1.75 to 2.25 during this
period, some flash flooding is possible across this already soaked
area through Monday. Therefore will issue a Flash Flood Watch for
Oneida and Vilas Counties where the heaviest rain has already
fallen with more heavy rain expected on the way during the next
few days. Depending on where the heavy rain falls during the next
few days, the watch may be expanded to include additional areas.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for WIZ005-010.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......Bersch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
MARINE.........Bersch
HYDROLOGY......Kurimski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
240 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-161945-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
240 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible tonight, especially over northern and
eastern Wisconsin. The primary hazard posed by the storms will be
heavy rainfall and localized flooding, but a few storms could also
be severe and produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

Thunderstorms are likely at times through the weekend and into
early next week. Severe storms with large hail and damaging winds
are possible, though the exact timing of the severe risk is
difficult to discern. The storms could also produce heavy rainfall
and pose a risk of flooding.

Hot and humid conditions are possible on Saturday, and somewhat
more likely on Sunday. Anyone engaged in outdoor activities should
take the forecast conditions into account, and develop a plan to
avoid heat-related illnesses.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report rainfall amounts, flooding, hail,
and damaging winds to the National Weather Service in Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-161945-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
240 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms will pose a hazard to boaters on the lake and bay at
times tonight. Dense fog is also possible on the lake at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

There is a chance of thunderstorms will continue through Monday
night. Dense fog is also possible at times through Monday night,
especially on the lake.

Skowronski/Uhlmann