River Flood Advisory 18, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
648 AM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

Weather conditions will steadily calm down and dry out through
the short-term forecast. The main weather impacts will be the
lingering flooding potential over the next couple days,
particularly along area rivers.

Satellite imagery Radar trends this morning continue to show an area
of moderate to occasionally heavy rain across much of the CWA. WV
imagery shows additional colder cloud tops sliding across roughly
northern portions of the CWA. A cold front was analyzed, via
surface obs, stretching from the far western U.P., southwest to
central and southern IA. As expected, the heaviest rainfall totals
have been observed over the northwest half of the CWA with a
general 2 to around 5 inches reported overnight.

Today: The cold front will progress southeast through the CWA
through this afternoon. This will lead to a steady decrease in
precipitation coverage and intensity from northwest to southeast.
Additionally, skies will begin to clear off from the northwest
during the afternoon hours as dry high pressure begins to build into
the Western Great Lakes region. The main concern will be elevated
and rising river levels across the area, especially where the
heaviest rainfall has occurred over the past 24 hours.  Especially
for the Yellow River in Wood County and the Wisconsin River in
Marathon and Lincoln Counties.  These rivers are expected to reach
at least minor flood stage over the next 24 to 36 hours. At this
point, will hang on to the Flash Flood Watch this morning, but
it can probably be canceled a bit earlier than its current end
time.

Tonight through Thursday: Dry high pressure will remain in control
of the weather across the Western Great Lakes Region, leading to
partly cloudy skies across the area along with much lower humidity.
In addition, temperatures will be cooler with lows tonight dropping
into the low to mid 40s over the northwest half and upper 40s to low
50s southeast half. Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s to around
70. There could be some fog development late tonight across the
north-central part of the CWA as winds become calm and skies
become or remain clear.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

After a very wet period over the last week to ten days, tranquil
and dry conditions are expected through much of the period. There
is only a small chance of showers across the far north early
next week, but confidence is low on that occurring.

Did lower minimum temperatures at least a few to several degrees
each night due to the dry Canadian high pressure system remaining
over the region. The greatest changes to the minimum temperatures
were across the north, and especially at our typical cold spots.
Only minor changes were made to the maximum temperatures each day,
to account for our typical warm spots during the day.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 648 AM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

A cold front sliding through the area today, will
allow for occasional MVFR/IFR conditions through the morning hours
before drier air moves in this afternoon. As dry high pressure
builds into the area, winds will decrease and skies will clear
from the northwest this afternoon and remain clear through the
rest of the TAF period at each site. There could be some fog
development tonight, especially at RHI as winds become light.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Area rivers will continue to be elevated over the next few days as
runoff from the recent heavy rainfall continues to work through the
drainage basins. Rivers across mainly the northwest half of the CWA
may reach or exceed flood stage through at least Friday morning.
Little to no additional rainfall is expected after today, which
should allow the rivers to recede over the weekend into early next
week.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ005-
010>013-018>021-030-031-035-036.

Beach Hazards Statement until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Cooley
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Cooley
HYDROLOGY......Cooley

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
758 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CRANDON                 45.56N 88.90W
09/05/2018  M3.25 INCH       FOREST             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL.

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NE WAUSAU               44.96N 89.63W
09/05/2018  M3.50 INCH       MARATHON           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL.

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       8 W MERRILL             45.18N 89.84W
09/05/2018  M4.91 INCH       LINCOLN            WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL.

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       STRATFORD               44.79N 90.08W
09/05/2018  M4.10 INCH       MARATHON           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       RHINELANDER             45.63N 89.41W
09/05/2018  M3.86 INCH       ONEIDA             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL. WWTP SITE.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SUMMIT LAKE             45.38N 89.19W
09/05/2018  M3.07 INCH       LANGLADE           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NW ARGONNE            45.68N 88.91W
09/05/2018  M5.17 INCH       FOREST             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL.

0755 AM     HEAVY RAIN       RHINELANDER             45.63N 89.41W
09/05/2018  E3.62 INCH       ONEIDA             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL.

0757 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SPREAD EAGLE            45.88N 88.13W
09/05/2018  M3.74 INCH       FLORENCE           WI   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL.

&&

KLB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1003 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 AM     HEAVY RAIN       RHINELANDER             45.63N 89.41W
09/05/2018  M4.01 INCH       ONEIDA             WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL COURTESY OF WJFW-TV

&&

TIMK