Severe Thunderstorm Warning 378, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
147 PM MDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Wed Aug 8 2018

Across the region this afternoon...a weak surface trough which has
been slowly pushing southward in central Kansas from this morning
is still the focal point for the development of isolated showers
and thunderstorms across the area. In turn...remnant outflow
boundaries are also aiding in isolated storm development as well.
Skies are mainly mostly sunny to sunny...except where clouds from
dying storms still are pushing thru the region...mainly south of
I-70. Temperatures are in the 80s with winds variable and gusting
at times in locales in relation to any storms/outflows.

For the rest of the afternoon on into this evening...do expect
continued isolated storm development across the area...aided by
previous storm outflow and diurnal heating. With the continued push
southward of the main surface trough from earlier today and loss
of diurnal heating...looking for convective activity to wane
around or just after sunset. With upper level amplified ridging to
our west tonight looking for mainly clear skies and a nice
evening.

Going into Thursday...despite models having amplified upper level
ridging to our west...there will be a weak trough setting up over
the Rockies during the day...and will be the focus/trigger for
some isolated storm development. Based on the positioning of the
surface trough...will focus expected storm/shower activity to
locales in northeast Colorado...but could work eastward thru the
day if trough sets up closer to the CO/KS border. SPC currently
has the CWA under General Thunder risk...but any storms could at
least see brief heavy downpours with PW's in the inch range and
Td's in the 50s to low 60s.

For temps...looking for overnight lows to range in the upper 50s
thru the mid 60s. Daytime highs on Thursday will top off in upper
80s thru the lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 102 PM MDT Wed Aug 8 2018

Embedded shortwave in upper level ridge flow over the northern and
central Plains Thursday night. A surface leeside trough along the
Colorado front range Thursday night will make thunderstorms
possible in the afternoon and evening. The shortwave moves south
into eastern Kansas by Friday night bringing northwest flow aloft
and possible thunderstorms throughout the day Friday. The
shortwave becomes absorbed into the main trough over the Great
Lakes and extends the main trough westward to an upper level low
that formed over the southern Plains Saturday morning. By Saturday
night, the low over Texas and Oklahoma becomes cut off from the
main trough.

Meanwhile, a trough over the Pacific Northwest, along with the upper
level low over the southern Plains and trough over the Great Lakes,
compress the ridge causing the ridge to build into northern Canada
Saturday. By Sunday night, the high pressure weakens allowing for
weak low pressure to overtake the U.S. After low pressure becomes
dominate, weak flow is left aloft creating almost zonal flow across
the northern Plains.

During the beginning of next week, the low over the southern
Plains migrates northward bringing precipitation chances with it
Monday into Tuesday for the Tri-State region. The low continues
moving north and is absorbed by the upper level flow creating a
shortwave trough over the central Plains. By Wednesday, a weak
trough forms over the Pacific Northwest moving southeast forming
an upper level cutoff low. The shortwave trough over the central
Plains begins to build Wednesday as the cutoff low and shortwave
trough collide. Due to this upper level flow regime during the
middle of next week, northwest flow aloft returns to the Tri-state
region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Wed Aug 8 2018

VFR conditions expected for both taf sites thru the forecast
period w/ mainly high cloud cover. Winds for KGLD...mainly light
and variable with some gusts around 10kts thru 21z and 06z-13z
Thursday. Winds for KMCK...light and variable.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...JN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
957 AM MDT Wed Aug 8 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-091600-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
957 AM MDT Wed Aug 8 2018 /1057 AM CDT Wed Aug 8 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Isolated marginally severe storms are possible late this aftenooon
and evening across far east central Colorado. The primary threats
with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1149 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

KSZ016-081730-
Graham KS-
1149 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL
1230 PM CDT...

At 1149 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Voda, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Saint Peter.

LAT...LON 3913 9979 3913 10014 3927 10014 3931 9977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 255DEG 13KT 3918 10004

JN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
222 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

KSZ029-081945-
Gove KS-
222 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GOVE COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM CDT...

At 222 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Gove, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
The Monument Rocks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3881 10082 3894 10067 3875 10036 3870 10043
      3870 10072
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 317DEG 21KT 3880 10065

JN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
240 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

KSZ042-082015-
Wichita KS-
240 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WICHITA COUNTY UNTIL 315
PM CDT...

At 240 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northeast of Leoti, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leoti and Marienthal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 10146 3868 10129 3858 10113 3844 10113
      3832 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 312DEG 8KT 3852 10128

JN

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