Severe Thunderstorm Warning 368, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
320 PM MDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM MDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Pops have been increased for the overnight period, as a shortwave
is expected to pass over our eastern CWA from Yuma County,
Colorado to potentially Wichita County, Kansas. Disturbance may
be enough lift to aid in thunderstorm development. Convection is
expected to develop over eastern Colorado and die off over the
plains. Biggest area of favored conditions will be the Palmer
Dive and to the east of it.

West Northwest wind flow aloft will aid in bringing in dryer
area, especially in the mid and upper levels. Model soundings are
showing favorable subsidence tomorrow. Pwat values are still
sitting ~1" in the low levels.

There is currently no well-defined synoptic support for
convection. But short term models like the HRRR and HREF are
pointing to late night convection from 06 to 12Z . MLCAPE values
are ~1000-1500 with about 35-40 knots 0-6 km shear. Expecting
isolated storms with marginally severe hail and winds.

Tonight, lows will sit in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the
Tri-State area. However, depending on convection, this may drop
5 to 10 degrees lower.

Lastly, tomorrow's highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with
another round of slight chances for convection in the late
afternoon. An isolated severe thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled
out.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Tue Aug 7 2018

A shortwave embedded in upper level ridge flow expected over the
northern Plains by Thursday morning. This shortwave moves southeast
over eastern Kansas by Friday night. During the southeastward
progression of this shortwave, thunderstorm chances will exist for
parts of the Tri-State region during the afternoon and overnight
hours. The shortwave will extend into the southern Plains due to
upper level lows settled over Oklahoma and Texas. This trough
becomes split Sunday with the main trough over the Midwest and a
cutoff low remaining over the southern Plains. By Tuesday morning,
the cutoff low over Texas migrates northward towards strong flow
aloft creating a shortwave trough over Kansas. The migration of the
cutoff low over Kansas could potentially bring precipitation to the
Tri-State region Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail. Only added additional lines in TAF for wind
changes. Winds are expected to shift from the north to the east to
the south ending up facing the southwest. Wind speeds are expected
to stay around 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...EV
LONG TERM...NEWMAN
AVIATION...EV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1043 AM MDT Tue Aug 7 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-081645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1043 AM MDT Tue Aug 7 2018 /1143 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated showers and storms are expected west of a line from Flagler,
Colorado to Tribune, Kansas during the evening and overnight hours.
There is a marginal chance of isolated severe storms potentially
creating large hail and damaging winds during the early evening as
storms begin to transition into far east central Colorado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Isolated thunderstorm are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening
with a marginal chance of some of the stronger storms producing
damaging wind as they move into far east central Colorado during the
early evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected this afternoon or tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
537 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2018

COZ091-080000-
Kit Carson County CO-
537 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 536 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Cope, or 18 miles north of Flagler, moving south
at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Kit
Carson County.

LAT...LON 3957 10286 3944 10276 3934 10308 3957 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 338DEG 21KT 3957 10301

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