Severe Thunderstorm Warning 354, NWS Goodland, KS

234 
WWUS53 KGLD 300131
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
731 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2018

COC063-300141-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0354.000000T0000Z-180730T0145Z/
Kit Carson CO-
731 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for east central
Colorado.

LAT...LON 3873 10237 3862 10232 3861 10243 3861 10264
      3873 10270
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 342DEG 45KT 3840 10263 

$$

COC017-300145-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0354.000000T0000Z-180730T0145Z/
Cheyenne CO-
731 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

At 731 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles northeast of
Neeoshe Reservoir, or 22 miles north of Lamar, moving south at 50
mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of south
central Cheyenne County in east central Colorado.

This includes Highway 385 near mile marker 136.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for east central
Colorado.

LAT...LON 3873 10237 3862 10232 3861 10243 3861 10264
      3873 10270
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 342DEG 45KT 3840 10263 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

EV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
557 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 546 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Just completed an update. Main change was for the pops and qpf
this evening. This mainly done for ongoing severe cluster moving
into our western portion of our area. Previous grids had highest
pops and qpf further west. Nothing else done for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Latest upper air analysis shows high pressure over the Desert
Southwest beginning to extend northward. Moving around the high
pressure is an upper level short wave trough, currently over
Southeast Wyoming. East of the Rockies, widespread cloud cover was
seen on satellite.  At the surface a stationary front extended
south- southeast from Wyoming toward Southeast Colorado.

For the rest of the afternoon the severe thunderstorms in Wyoming
will spread southeast, and additional storms will move east off
the Rockies, toward the High Plains. The stationary front will
serve as a focus for convection as well. Am expecting the
strongest storms to be located near this front. Am expecting storm
activity to be moving into northwest Yuma County before the
afternoon is over.

This evening storm activity will continue spreading southeast
across the forecast area. The storm activity should spread
southeast fairly quickly in the early evening. Storms should have
a peak intensity from roughly 5-9 PM local time. Of concern is
the lower 700-500mb lapse rates as the upper level short wave
trough moves through. This may indicate the severe activity will
only last a couple hours into the event, by the time storms move
into the forecast area, before storm intensity declines. Storm
activity will end from northwest to southeast late in the evening,
possibly lasting an hour or two after midnight.

Threats:

Hail up to golf ball size, possibly up to hen egg in the tornado
watch area.

Wind gusts up to 70 MPH. This will mainly be a threat south of
Highway 36.

Flash flooding. This is more favored south of Highway 36 where
repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are more likely to occur.
Am on the fence regarding issuing a watch at this point. If WPC
issues an MCD for flash flooding, will be much more in favor of
issuing a watch.

Tornadoes. This will be more likely further west toward the
stationary front. Low level helicity is very supportive of tornado
genesis over Kit Carson, Cheyenne, and souther Yuma County, with
the eastern fringe of the helicity extending just across the
state line into Kansas in counties in the tornado watch.

Confidence concerns:

The widespread cloud cover is very concerning for severe weather
generation. Severe weather has not lived up to what the
environment could generate the last couple of days, so the added
cooling effect of the cloud cover lowers confidence of severe
weather occurring. Also, the models seem to have slightly slowed
down the arrival of the severe weather. The later in the day
storms move in, the less likely they will be of producing severe
weather.

In general am expecting severe weather to occur, the question is
what will the areal coverage be. At this point confidence is low
that the severe threat will be of the magnitude that we typically
would see for an enhanced risk day.

Due to the complexities of the weather today, have not had a
chance to analyze weather for Monday. A quick looks shows a
possibility for storms in the morning, which seems reasonable
given what has happened the last two days. During the afternoon
the upper level trough axis moves through bringing any storm
activity to an end.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

On Monday night, an upper trough exits the High Plains from west to
east and northwest flow redevelops aloft, with upper ridging across
the west coast. Surface high pressure moves into the region behind
the departing wave, resulting in dry weather through Wednesday
night.

Thursday through Saturday, the western upper ridge expands east and
flattens as a disturbance travels east along the Canadian border. The
ridge quickly redevelops and amplifies on Sunday. Predominantly dry
conditions are forecast to persist during this timeframe. However,
some spotty slight chances of showers and thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out during the evening hours as weak waves rotate through the
the northwest flow.

High temperatures gradually warm from the 80s on Tuesday to the low
90s on Friday. Temperatures in the 90s continue over the weekend as
well. Low temperatures follow suit and steadily warm, ranging from
the low 50s to the low 70s throughout the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 546 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

For Kgld, expect thunderstorms to affect the site in the 01z to
03z time frame. Although believe the strongest part of this
thunderstorm complex will be west of the site, site should see
variable wind direction gusts up to 45 knots with mvfr conditions
expected through 02z to 04z. After 04z vfr conditions are expected
with north to northeast winds near 7 knots for the rest of the
period. It is possible between 15z to 18z, thunderstorms may
affect the site.

For Kmck, vfr conditions are expected through the period. Weak
thunderstorms may be near the site this evening. However I am not
optimistic about that though. Also some thunderstorms may be near
the site between 15z and 18z. Winds will vary from north to east
at 8 knots or less.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
239 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-302045-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
239 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018 /339 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Tornado Watch is currently in effect until 9 PM MDT for Colorado
counties, Cheyenne, Kit Carson, and Yuma. It is also in effect for
the following Kansas counties, Sherman, Greeley, and Wallace
until 9 PM MDT.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM MDT 10 PM CDT
for Nebraska counties Dundy and Hitchcock, and Kansas counties,
Cheyenne, Rawlins, Thomas, Sheridan, Logan, Gove, and Wichita.

Severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail up to golf
ball or even hen egg size. Wind gusts up to 70 mph may occur south of
Highway 36. Tornadoes may occur in the tornado watch area, with the
threat increasing to the west. The potential for severe weather will
be greatest in eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas between 6
PM and 9 PM MDT. Flash flooding will remain possible, particularly
in areas repeatedly affected by thunderstorms during the past 48
hours and for locations south of Highway 36.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening. Any
severe weather reports are greatly appreciated.

JTL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
632 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TSTM WND GST     16 NNW SEIBERT          39.52N 102.94W
07/29/2018  M58 MPH          KIT CARSON         CO   MESONET

            GUSTS CONTINUE TO DECLINE.

&&

JTL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
635 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             FLAGLER                 39.29N 103.07W
07/29/2018  E2.75 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
645 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             FLAGLER                 39.29N 103.07W
07/29/2018  E2.00 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            2" HAIL LASTED APPROX. 5 MIN / 40-70 MPH
            GUSTS.

&&

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