Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
530 PM MDT Sat Jun 30 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 105 PM MDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Overview: A potent shortwave, centered over south-central WY at
18Z, will track eastward into the NE Panhandle this evening --
then lift northeast to southeast SD overnight. A lee cyclone
centered south of I-70 in western KS at 18Z will shift southward
into the TX Panhandle this evening as sfc high pressure builds
into the region from the northwest, ushering a cooler airmass into
the Tri- State area. High pressure will shift slowly east across
Kansas during the day Sunday.

Today-Tonight: Very challenging forecast. At 18Z, low overcast on
the N/NW periphery of the lee cyclone in northeast CO and
southwest NE has largely inhibited insolation, with temperatures
ranging from the low/mid 60s to low 70s at 18Z. On the S/SE
periphery of the lee cyclone in western KS, skies remained mostly
sunny with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Forcing
this afternoon will be confined to low-level convergence invof
the lee cyclone and low-level warm advection on the northern
periphery of the lee cyclone (north of I-70 ), the latter of which
will result in scattered elevated convection in southwest NE
through 21Z. With substantial convective inhibition still in place
per 18Z SPC mesoanalysis data, it is unclear whether or not sfc
based convection will develop in the warm sector S/SE of Goodland
after 21Z. Given that the warm sector will shift south/east with
time, sfc-based convection, should it develop, would most likely
occur along/east of a line from Garden City to Hill City.
Convection is most likely this evening/tonight (00-09Z) as the
aforementioned shortwave progresses into the NE Panhandle and
scattered to widespread elevated convection expected to develop
upstream in northeast CO/southwest NE progresses southeast through
northwest Kansas. Large hail, damaging winds and perhaps an
isolated tornado would be possible in assoc/w any surface based
convection south/east of Goodland this afternoon (though
development is very uncertain). Additionally, an isolated
instance of severe hail will be possible in assoc/w elevated
convection in southwest NE this afternoon. A more substantial
potential for large hail may exist this evening as elevated
convection (including a few elevated supercells) progress
southeast into the Tri-State area.

Sunday: Expect clearing skies and cooler temperatures as high
pressure becomes situated over the state.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Sunday night will continue to be quiet with overnight low in the
upper 50s to middle 60s.

Monday, breezy south winds will bring warmer temperatures back into
the forecast area.  Late afternoon and through the evening a compact
upper level short wave trough will deepen just west of the region,
near the dry line. Scattered storms may develop and spread east
during the evening.

For the rest of the extended, an elongated upper level high, over
the southeastern and eastern CONUS, along with an upper level trough
moving into the Pacific Northwest region will produce predominantly
southwest flow aloft over the High Plains through midweek. This
upper level high looks to retrograde westward from Tuesday and by
Friday be located over the centered Plains with strong ridging into
central Canada. This will influence the region with mostly dry
conditions; however, southerly surface winds may transport moisture
into the High Plains, underneath this area of high pressure, keeping
a few spotty chances for storms in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Sat Jun 30 2018

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through 01z. From 02z-
04z a line or broken line of thunderstorms is expected to move
through both terminals producing winds potentially in excess of
50kts, large hail and heavy rainfall producing sub vfr conditions.
From 04z-06z gusty north winds continue with cigs improving to
vfr. From 07z-18z winds generally from the northwest 10kts or
less, after 19z winds become variable at 6kts or less under a
clear sky.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
337 PM MDT Sat Jun 30 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-012145-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
337 PM MDT Sat Jun 30 2018 /437 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...Enhanced Risk for Severe Thunderstorms this Evening...

A line of thunderstorms will develop in eastern Colorado late this
afternoon and track east across the Tri-State area this evening. The
primary threat with these storms will be damaging wind gusts up to 80
mph and golf ball to tennis ball size hail. The threat for severe
weather will be greatest between 6 pm and Midnight MDT. Areas along
and north of Interstate 70 are most likely to be affected. Locally
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Large hail and damaging winds may occur with thunderstorms Monday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected this evening.

Vincent

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
643 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNW HALE              39.65N 102.14W
06/30/2018  M56 MPH          YUMA               CO   MESONET

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
644 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     HAIL             7 SW IDALIA             39.64N 102.40W
06/30/2018  E1.75 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
645 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SW IDALIA             39.64N 102.40W
06/30/2018  E60 MPH          YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED EST WINDS BETWEEN 40 TO 60 MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
649 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNW HALE              39.65N 102.14W
06/30/2018  M58 MPH          YUMA               CO   MESONET

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
651 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 WNW SAINT FRANCIS    39.81N 101.97W
06/30/2018  M56 MPH          CHEYENNE           KS   MESONET

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
653 PM MDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNW HALE              39.65N 102.14W
06/30/2018  M60 MPH          YUMA               CO   MESONET

&&