Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
202 PM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Overview: An upper level low (currently centered invof the WY/NE
border) will gradually track east across Nebraska through Monday.
A potent shortwave rounding the base of the upper low in northern
CO will eject ENE onto the High Plains this afternoon and evening.

Through Tonight: Challenging forecast. Morning convection and
cloud cover have significantly impeded insolation in northwest KS,
particularly along and north of I-70 where elevated convection
has persisted. Low-level height/wind fields were altered by a
large MCS that propagated from KS into OK earlier today --
delaying the onset of southerly return flow /low-level moisture
advection/ into western Kansas. As a result, the greatest severe
weather potential has been shunted south of the GLD county warning
area. In spite of a relatively marginal thermodynamic
environment, forcing attendant the shortwave ejecting ENE from
Colorado onto the High Plains will allow widespread convection to
develop across the Tri-State area this aft/eve and may support an
isolated potential for severe hail/wind late this afternoon --
particularly along and south of Highway 40. Convection should grow
upscale and propagate S/SE of the region this evening - however,
isolated convection associated with the upper low will remain
possible north of I-70 during the overnight hours.

Monday/Monday night: Expect dry conditions to prevail over most
(if not all) of the area in association with subsidence in the
wake of the upper low progressing slowly east across Nebraska.
Isolated convection cannot be entirely ruled out in southwest
Nebraska Monday afternoon -- depending on the precise evolution
of the upper low. Expect highs in the low/mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 102 PM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Not much has change in the extended over the past couple of days.
The models are still showing the local area under the influence of
an upper-level ridge for most of the period. This will produce
mostly dry conditions with above normal high temperatures. The next
change for precipitation looks to be Saturday as an upper level
trough deepens over the western U.S. This puts our local area under
southwesterly flow aloft. This will result in a lee side low trying
to development off the front range. It is still too early to tell if
this will pan out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Challenging forecast. Winds may be light/variable for much of
today, though stronger winds will certainly be possible invof any
thunderstorms. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop
over the Tri-State area late this morning and are likely to affect
both terminals at some point (perhaps multiple times) this
afternoon. Thunderstorms should shift south/east of the area this
evening (00-06Z Mon), though it is possible that thunderstorms
could linger in vicinity of the MCK terminal overnight. A period
of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out at either terminal this
evening/overnight. Expect winds to become NW/WNW at 15-20 knots
AOA sunrise Monday morning. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail from sunrise onward.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1055 AM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251700-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1055 AM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018 /1155 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will re-develop across the Tri-
State area today. Isolated storms may become severe, with a primary
threat of quarter to golfball size hail and damaging wind gusts up to
65 mph. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will also
be possible, particularly in areas where heavy rain fell during the
past 24 hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required

Vincent

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