Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1137 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Current radar shows storms forming along the approaching cold
front to the northwest of Yuma County. Confidence is low regarding
the intensity of these storms as they move into the forecast area
in the next hour or so due to influences from previous convection.
The earlier convection left several boundaries across the forecast
area. However this next round of storms will be elevated, so the
question is will these storms still be influenced by the earlier
convection, and to what degree. The majority of the storm activity
was south of Highway 36, so the environment to the north should
have been much less altered by the prior convection than to the
south.

In summary confidence for another round of storms tonight is on
the high side. Confidence is low regarding how strong the storms
will be.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Tonight-Sunday...low confidence forecast through the period. Am
thinking an organized line/cluster of storms will develop in the
vicinity of the CO/KS border along and south of the interstate
late in the afternoon moving east or southeast this evening with
another possibility of thunderstorms developing near or along a
cold frontal boundary. Couldnt get too detailed unfortunately. Low
temperatures near normal. On Sunday gut tells me we will be in a
lull for part of the day but I guess we could see some storms
along the cold front. Not confident in severe weather as well
given in part the NAM model producing afternoon temperatures in
the 60s to low 70s. 18z NAM event cooler with low 60s to upper
70s. We cant completely rule out the NAM as there have been two or
three other events where it was the outlier (temperature wise) and
it actually was pretty close. Currently have highs in the mid 70s
to around 80 but that is certainly subject to change.

Sunday night-Monday...precipitation chances end from west to east
Sunday night with dry conditions expected for most on Monday.
Afternoon temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s.

Monday night-Tuesday...dry through the period. After morning lows
in the mid 50s to mid 60s high temperatures warm into the low to
upper 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 114 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

In the extended the models are showing the local area being under
the influence of an upper-level ridge on Wednesday. This ridge
flattens out and shifts towards the east Wednesday afternoon as an
upper level trough deepens over the western U.S. This puts our local
area in between the upper-level trough, to our west, and ridge, to
our east. By Friday the trough deepens enough to produce southwesterly
flow aloft over the Plains for the rest of the period. On the
surface, the upper level low will influence the development of lee
side lows off the front range. At this time they look to form mostly
to our northwest and produce little to no impacts to the Tri-State
region.

This pattern will produce mostly dry conditions, southerly winds,
and above normal high temperatures during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1132 PM MDT Sat Jun 23 2018

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Current storms near
KMCK will quickly move through. Behind this weakening line is
another round of storms moving in from the west. Foresee these
storms increasing in coverage around 9z over the forecast area.
However confidence of whether these will actually be near a TAF
site are low. Coverage should reach a peak around 12z before
shifting east of the TAF sites. More storm activity may occur
Sunday afternoon.

Current model consensus is showing MVFR ceiling developing in the
morning. Have moderate confidence this will occur. Overall
confidence of storm coverage is on the low side for both tonight
and Sunday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JTL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1047 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SELDEN                  39.54N 100.57W
06/23/2018                   SHERIDAN           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING REPORTED ON THE EAST AND WEST SIDES
            OF TOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 83. DEPTH IN THE
            MIDDLE OF THE HIGHWAY WAS 6" DEEP, AND 1'
            DEEP ALONG THE EDGE OF THE HIGHWAY. THE AREA
            FLOODED WAS 150' LONG. WATER HAS SINCE
            RECEDED AS OF 9 PM CT.

0604 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 SSE SHARON SPRINGS    38.77N 101.68W
06/23/2018  M73 MPH          WALLACE            KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION C6099, 9 SSE SHARON SPRINGS.

0509 PM     HAIL             10 S WILD HORSE         38.67N 102.99W
06/23/2018  E1.75 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

0500 PM     HAIL             7 NNW GRAINFIELD        39.21N 100.54W
06/23/2018  E1.75 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED.

0436 PM     HAIL             7 N BEARDSLEY           39.91N 101.23W
06/23/2018  E1.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   PUBLIC

0422 PM     HAIL             4 S BURLINGTON          39.25N 102.27W
06/23/2018  E1.50 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0415 PM     HAIL             2 NNE ANGELUS           39.22N 100.68W
06/23/2018  E1.00 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL FOR ROUGHLY 5
            MINUTES. GROUND COVERED.

0415 PM     HAIL             STRATTON                39.31N 102.60W
06/23/2018  M1.75 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            ***UPDATE, UP THE SIZE TO GOLF BALL DUE TO
            REPORTER SENDING IN PICTURES WITH DIVOTS
            THAT EST TO BE GOLF BALL SIZE*** THIS
            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT. FACEBOOK
            REPORT RECEIVED OF MEASURED HALF DOLLAR
            HAIL. THE REPORTER SAID THEY JUST GOT HOME
            ABOUT AN HOUR AFTER THE STORM PASSED SO DOES
            NOT KNOW THE ACTUAL SIZE THE HAIL WAS DURING
            THE STORM.

0353 PM     HAIL             5 ENE RULETON           39.37N 101.80W
06/23/2018  E0.75 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL 4 MILES WEST OF GOODLAND.

0350 PM     HAIL             ATWOOD                  39.81N 101.04W
06/23/2018  E0.88 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   911 CALL CENTER

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL FOR SEVERAL
            MINUTES AROUND 450 PM CDT (350 PM MDT).

0343 PM     HAIL             7 NE BURLINGTON         39.37N 102.17W
06/23/2018  E1.25 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. HAIL COVERING THE
            GROUND FROM PEA TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE.

0339 PM     HAIL             ATWOOD                  39.81N 101.04W
06/23/2018  E1.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

0334 PM     HAIL             6 E MINGO               39.28N 100.85W
06/23/2018  E1.25 INCH       THOMAS             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

0304 PM     HAIL             3 NE MINGO              39.31N 100.92W
06/23/2018  E1.75 INCH       THOMAS             KS   PUBLIC

            AT LEAST GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. HARD TO TELL
            LARGEST SIZE BECAUSE SOME OF STONES BREAKING
            AS THEY HIT.

0247 PM     HAIL             VONA                    39.30N 102.74W
06/23/2018  E0.75 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

0235 PM     HAIL             1 NE COLBY              39.40N 101.03W
06/23/2018  M1.00 INCH       THOMAS             KS   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0230 PM     HAIL             1 SW LEVANT             39.37N 101.20W
06/23/2018  E1.75 INCH       THOMAS             KS   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0230 PM     HAIL             COLBY                   39.39N 101.05W
06/23/2018  M1.25 INCH       THOMAS             KS   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0226 PM     HAIL             COLBY                   39.39N 101.05W
06/23/2018  M2.00 INCH       THOMAS             KS   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

0225 PM     HAIL             COLBY                   39.39N 101.05W
06/23/2018  E0.50 INCH       THOMAS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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