Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Goodland, KS

077 
WWUS53 KGLD 182354
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
654 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

KSC039-153-NEC087-145-190015-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-180519T0015Z/
Rawlins KS-Decatur KS-Red Willow NE-Hitchcock NE-
654 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN RAWLINS...NORTHWESTERN DECATUR...SOUTHWESTERN RED
WILLOW AND SOUTHEASTERN HITCHCOCK COUNTIES...

At 654 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Herndon, or 14
miles west of Oberlin, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Herndon, Ludell, Cedar Bluffs and Traer. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3975 10088 3986 10099 3999 10097 4014 10081
      3995 10049 3981 10074
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 221DEG 15KT 3990 10078 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

TL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
247 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 209 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Forecast still looks on track for this afternoon/evening with
convection expected to form vicinity of leading edge of outflow
boundary. Latest GOES imagery suggests boundary lies along
convergent zone of stable wave clouds and cumulus streets over
northern Greeley and Wichita counties extending up toward Gove
and over to Wakeeney. HRRR has been very consistent last 6 runs or
so with timing of storm initiation around 4-5 pm MDT and location
around highway 96. Latest SPC mesoanalysis suggests there may be
a couple more hours before CINH is overcome.

Guidance points to storms quickly developing upscale with discrete
storms existing in a narrow time window early on. Not thinking
much of a tornado threat given weak 1 km bulk shear and SRH
values, but best chances would likely be across far southern part
of our forecast area late this afternoon.

Given mean wind flow and high precipitable water values, potential
for heavy rainfall exists in areas which experience training
cells, perhaps with better chances over our north and northeast
counties.

On Saturday, cold front will push through the area with GFS a bit
faster than NAM, accompanied by showers. Current forecast has
Saturday high temps ranging from low 50s NW to low 70s SE, but
frontal timing may require refinement.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Long range guidance suggests that split flow aloft will prevail
over the western CONUS through next week -- and that shortwave
energy digging ashore the PAC NW on Sunday will amplify into a
closed low that stalls over portions of the Intermountain West
Mon-Wed. W-SW flow aloft is expected downstream over the Rockies
and High Plains. Given a complicated synoptic pattern
characterized by split flow and a cut-off low -- confidence is
very low w/regard to sensible weather over the Tri-State area
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

A round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to impact both
terminals after 00Z. Convection will develop south of the terminal
area between 22Z and 00Z and move north and northeast, impacting
KGLD in the 00Z-04Z timeframe and KMCK in the 02Z-06Z timeframe.
Large hail and damaging winds are possible with stronger storms.

After the storms move out, IFR stratus is forecast to develop at
both terminals which will gradually lift to MVFR ceilings Saturday
morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...DLF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1045 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1045 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018 /1145 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Strong and severe thunderstorms are expected to develop after 5 pm
along a line from Tribune to Gove to south of Hill City. Thunderstorms
will increase in coverage as they move north and northeast across
the area this evening, with greatest coverage east of the Kansas-
Colorado border.

The primary threats will be hail to two inches in diameter and
thunderstorm outflow wind gusts to 65 mph which may produce localized
areas of blowing dirt. Heavy rainfall is also expected with some
storms, especially north of Interstate 70. Although a tornado cannot
be ruled out, hail and wind will be the more prevalent threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports will be needed late this afternoon and this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
610 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

KSZ002-182315-
Rawlins KS-
610 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RAWLINS COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

At 603 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Ludell, or 10 miles east of Atwood, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Rawlins County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3981 10074 3976 10074 3962 10085 3971 10105
      3990 10085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 217DEG 32KT 3980 10084

JRM