Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Goodland, KS

428 
WWUS53 KGLD 181124
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
624 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

NEC145-181200-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-180518T1200Z/
Red Willow NE-
624 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL RED WILLOW COUNTY...

At 624 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over McCook, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
McCook and Indianola. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 10030 4033 10026 4000 10063 4001 10064
      4010 10075 4035 10062
TIME...MOT...LOC 1124Z 206DEG 17KT 4020 10059 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

251 
WWUS53 KGLD 181145
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
645 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

NEC145-181155-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-180518T1200Z/
Red Willow NE-
645 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL RED WILLOW COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4035 10030 4033 10026 4000 10063 4001 10064
      4010 10075 4035 10062
TIME...MOT...LOC 1144Z 214DEG 17KT 4028 10052 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
420 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Today-tonight....difficult forecast once again with various caveats
that could impact the entire forecast and the possibility of severe
weather late this afternoon through the evening.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing just north of the
forecast area this morning. We occasionally get cold outflow from
these storms that bring cold north to northeast winds and low
cloudiness into the area. If that develops its likely that the
available models at this point wont have a handle on it.

Current expectation is that much of the area will have considerable
cloudiness this morning before slowly dissipating south of the
interstate by mid to late afternoon. With dry air in the mid levels
its gonna be hard to generate precipitation, cant rule out a shower
or sprinkle here or there but for the most part it appears to be
dry. By 23z or 00z better moisture in the mid levels arrives from
the southwest and when combined with strong heating and possibly a
differential heating boundary along with increasing support at jet
level produce isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
generally south of the interstate. Large hail and damaging outflow
winds possibly producing blowing dust will be the primary threats. A
tornado cannot be ruled out. These strong to severe storms will
quickly move northeast this evening while increasing in coverage. By
midnight we may be in a lull as earlier storms lift out of the area.
There are varying model solutions to this so for now havent changed
much after midnight.

The high temperature forecast will be challenging and will be
dependent on how fast or slow the cloud cover remains over the
area and position of the warm front. Generally expecting the
warmest temperatures across the east and south with mid 80s to
around 90 with low 70s to near 80 across the northwest 1/2 of the
area. 850mb temperatures from the past few days support highs
close to 90 in Hill City and the mid 90s in Tribune and Leoti. Low
temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 in far eastern
Colorado, low to upper 50s east of the CO/KS border.

Saturday-Sunday night...below normal temperatures expected,
especially Sunday with continued chances of showers/thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 159 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

An unsettled pattern is anticipated during the extended period. A
large upper trough develops over the western CONUS, becoming a
closed low by Monday morning. Southwest flow forms aloft as a
result, and Gulf moisture remains over the region. The low weakens
midweek and lifts northward along the Rockies.

As this system evolves during this timeframe, several waves are
ejected from it onto the High Plains. These disturbances produce
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. However, the timing,
placement, and strength of these waves is difficult to determine
this far out due to model inconsistencies. With it being May, there
will probably be a potential for severe thunderstorms at some point,
but will have to wait to evaluate until we get closer to next week.

Temperatures climb from the upper 70s/low 80s on Monday to the 80s
across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday could be
slightly cooler with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Low
temperatures will range from the low 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

KGLD, sub vfr conditions are expected this morning with southeast
winds near 12kts. For this afternoon vfr conditions are expected
to return with winds from the east-southeast near 15kts. Current
indications suggest strong to severe thunderstorms to possibly
impact the terminal in the 00z-01z timeframe. Should this develop
strong and gusty variable winds, locally heavy rainfall and
possibly hail will be the primary threats. After 09z or so stratus
is expected to return with winds from the east under 10 mph.

KMCK, mvfr cigs expected through 19z with winds generally from the
east or northeast gusting 20-30kts. From 20z-01z vfr conditions
expected with winds from the east near 12kts. Showers and
thunderstorms possible in the 02z-04z timeframe with reduced
visibilities. After 05z cigs slowly fall and should be below vfr
range after 10z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

Areas generally along and north of the interstate will have been
outlooked for a slight chance of excessive rainfall from this
morning through Saturday morning. Precipitation amounts of 1.5 to
2.0 inches are possible in these areas.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99
HYDROLOGY...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
425 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
425 AM MDT Fri May 18 2018 /525 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Strong and severe thunderstorms are expected to develop generally
south of the interstate after 5 PM MDT. Any thunderstorms that
develop will move north northeast reaching the interstate between 6
PM MDT and 7 PM MDT, continuing north northeast through the
remainder of the evening. The primary threats will be hail to two
inches in diameter, thunderstorm outflow wind gusts to 65 mph, and
locally heavy rainfall. Blowing dust is possible as well as a few
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed after 5 PM MDT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
506 AM MDT FRI MAY 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 E MCCOOK              40.20N 100.59W
05/18/2018  M60 MPH          RED WILLOW         NE   ASOS

&&