Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Glasgow, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
202 PM MDT Wed Aug 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Afternoon Update (2pm MDT): Not much in the way of updating was
necessary today. Cleaning up and increasing some of the winds to
coincide with current trends was the biggest change. Otherwise the
narrative from the morning is still intact.

Bigelbach

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Satellite imagery shows very low stratus
across southern Montana, some of which is encroaching into our
CWA. Observations across the southwestern zones show small
dewpoint depressions, and with relatively light winds cannot rule
out the possibility of some patchy fog early this morning, most
likely in the general vicinity of Highway 200 between Winnett and
Jordan. This should be very isolated in nature and not last more
than a couple of hours beyond sunrise.

Today, an upper level low pressure system will move across the
northwestern CONUS and into eastern Montana Thursday. This will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to parts of our area,
most likely south of the Missouri River. In general not much
accumulation is expected, but areas near and south of Glendive may
see a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain Thursday.

Thursday night through Friday afternoon, the low pressure will
exit the region and a ridge will quickly pass through the area.
This will bring warmer temperatures and drier conditions, and once
again temperatures will approach 90 degrees with relative
humidities in the teens. This, in combination with breezy west to
northwest winds, may bring about enhanced fire weather concerns
Friday. Will continue to monitor this possibility.

Saturday and beyond, a series a ridges and troughs will move
across the region, bringing numerous chances for thunderstorms.
Models are fairly consistent bringing systems across the region
both on Saturday/Sunday and Tuesday, but diverge quite a bit on
exact timing or amounts of any precipitation that may come from
these, so chose to use the latest model blends.

Hickford

&&

.AVIATION...

Expected Flight Category: VFR

Synopsis: Pleasant flying weather continues for the rest of today.
A disturbance will bring isolated to scattered showers, and
perhaps a few thunderstorms, to the southern sites (SDY/GDV)
tomorrow.

Winds: South winds of 10-15 kts will calm to light and variable
for the sites overnight, then turn to the west tomorrow morning
with speeds of 7-12 kts by tomorrow afternoon. Some gusty and
erratic winds can be expected if a thunderstorm moves over any of
the sites.

Bigelbach

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

weather.gov/glasgow