River Flood Warning 71, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
630 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

Concerns: Convection at the airports, possibly 2 rounds of storms,
wind shift from a cold front tonight.

A complex of storms is moving east across the region with
additional showers and storms ahead of it. Thunderstorms are
expected to impact the airports this morning with a best timing of
13-17Z. Gusty southwest to northwest winds may occur along with
heavy rain reducing visibilities. Some of the leading edge storms
could be severe with a damaging wind threat and possibly a
tornado. The complex is expected to move east by early afternoon
but another round of storms may develop very near the TAF sites
this evening. Where these storms develop is still uncertain and
may be adjusted based on how far east the morning convection
tracks.

A cold front will sweep across the region this evening, ending the
showers and storms. Northwest winds of 10-15 kts can be expected
through the overnight period and for most of Wednesday. Low level
stratus may linger for a few hours after FROPA.

JLDunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

The upper level trough is starting to swing more towards a
negative tilt tonight with widespread showers and storms
continuing across mainly the western half of the state. By
daybreak, we expect this activity will already be in our western
counties with isolated to scattered rain activity occurring east
of this area. Instability has been increasing across our
southwestern zones as the low level jet increases in that area,
and we anticipate some of this increased instability will continue
to spread north during the early morning hours. So as these
storms move into our western areas, a severe weather threat will
exist, in particular in areas that are not disturbed by outflow
boundaries.

Model guidance tonight continues to suffer with the smaller scale
trends and timing of convective evolution today, but there is an
overall agreement that the morning complex of storms will push
farther east across the region than previously thought, and a
second round of storms will develop later in the day/evening.
Severe storms will be possible along and ahead of the leading edge
of the morning complex as instability continues to increase
through the morning hours. Instability will be greatest along and
south of I-20 and this may be where the higher threat for severe
storms will be. We will carefully be analyzing mesoscale
properties and radar trends to anticipate where the greatest
threat for severe storms will be located. As the complex of storms
continues east in the afternoon hours, the severe weather threat
may also continue, but a weakening of the line is expected as the
low-level jet weakens and the complex moves further away from the
upper level trough. However, this will not be the end of the rain
as most models indicate another round of convection will develop
sometime in the late afternoon and early evening hours. This
second round may form along the front as it starts to enter our
region. The atmosphere may be too worked over by this time to
support an additional threat for severe storms, but the threat
cannot be completely discounted at this time and will depend on
how far east and how extensive the morning complex of rain tracks.
It's possible the threat this evening could be limited to our
eastern counties. The final round of storms is expected to move
pretty swiftly east with the front and exit the region late
tonight.

The main severe weather hazard will be damaging winds. Although
some hail cannot be discounted, its threat may be limited by weak
lapse rates and a deeply moist atmosphere. Unfortunately a
tornado threat cannot be discounted either as nicely veering winds
in the lower levels of the atmosphere will be maintained and has
already resulted in some Tornado Warnings in West Texas. Storms
today will be efficient rainfall producers which would result in a
flash flooding threat if any storms stall, train or are slow-
moving. With deep southerly flow through the atmosphere this
morning, the flood threat may be slightly higher in the morning
hours as the complex slowly moves across the region. However, we
do not plan to issue a Flood Watch due to uncertainties in the
speed and maintenance of the morning complex.

As the front sweep across the region this evening and tonight,
much welcomed cooler and drier air will filter into the region.

JLDunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/
/Wednesday through Tuesday/

Much of the region will start Wednesday in the 50s, and possibly
even the upper 40s in a few spots in our northwestern counties.
This could be the coolest temperatures the region has seen since
last Spring. Very pleasant weather with below normal temperatures,
sunny skies and low humidity will prevail Wednesday and Thursday.
During this time we will remain under west-southwest flow aloft
as Hurricane Sergio heads east for Baja and Mexico and the next
upper level trough digs along the West Coast.

On Friday, Sergio will make landfall on Baja and Sonora, Mexico.
Increased cloud cover and light rain will spread across much of
North and Central Texas as mid level moisture surges ahead of
Sergio and weak energy starts translating east from the storm. The
rain will be falling from the mid levels of the atmosphere and
will likely spend a good portion of the day fighting drier air
below the cloud deck. The best rain chances will be mainly north
of I-20 and west of I-35.

The remnants of Sergio are forecast to maintain identity across
Mexico and enter West Texas Saturday morning. Both the GFS and
ECMWF have a defined surface low that moves northeast across our
northwest counties late Saturday. Our surface winds also finally
turn to the southeast, increase in speed and quickly draw some
Gulf moisture into the region. At this same time, the upper level
trough from the West Coast is continuing to inch closer to the
region and is assisting a strong cold front moving down the
Plains. Rain chances increase Saturday through Sunday, but the GFS
and ECMWF differ in how this rain unfolds. The GFS has more rain
with the low pressure system on Saturday and Saturday night, while
the ECMWF has more rain with the cold front on Sunday. The
details on the best timing and any possible threats with this next
system will be refined this week.

The weekend cold front will allow the coolest air of the season to
filter into the region. Highs in the 60s are expected for the
early part of next week with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

JLDunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  57  75  56  72 /  90  70   0   0   0
Waco                83  59  78  57  76 /  90  60   0   0   0
Paris               79  60  74  54  71 /  60  90  10   0   0
Denton              80  54  73  54  71 /  90  70   0   0   0
McKinney            81  57  73  53  70 /  80  80   5   0   0
Dallas              81  59  76  56  72 /  80  70   0   0   0
Terrell             81  60  77  56  75 /  60  80   5   0   0
Corsicana           83  62  78  56  73 /  60  80   5   0   0
Temple              82  60  78  57  76 /  80  60   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       78  53  74  52  72 /  90  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

82/90

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
349 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-100900-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
349 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Widespread thunderstorms are expected to affect the area today and
tonight as one or more thunderstorm complexes traverses the region.
Damaging winds will be the main threat with stronger thunderstorms,
but an isolated tornado or hail would also be possible if any
supercell thunderstorms are able to develop ahead of the storm
complex. Depending on the speed of the complexes of storms, heavy
rainfall may result in flash flooding or minor river flooding.
The storms will exit the region to the east tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

After a brief interlude of pleasant weather Wednesday and Thursday,
thunderstorm chances will return on Saturday and Sunday. A few storms
could linger in Central Texas on Monday. At this time, widespread
severe weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
There is a high chance of spotter activation today and/or this
evening across parts of North and Central Texas.

JLDunn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
551 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2018

TXZ115-116-129-091130-
Palo Pinto TX-Stephens TX-Eastland TX-
551 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EASTLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN STEPHENS AND WESTERN PALO PINTO COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM
CDT...

At 551 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ranger, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ranger, Gordon, Necessity, Possum Kingdom State Park, Strawn and
Mingus.

LAT...LON 3296 9857 3296 9852 3295 9851 3269 9824
      3252 9829 3251 9847 3243 9869 3254 9875
      3270 9882
TIME...MOT...LOC 1051Z 252DEG 30KT 3257 9866

Carlaw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
608 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2018

TXZ157-091145-
Coryell TX-
608 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CORYELL COUNTY UNTIL 645
AM CDT...

At 607 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a shower producing very
strong thunderstorm producing very little lightning 12 miles north
of Copperas Cove, moving north at 25 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gatesville.

LAT...LON 3126 9800 3156 9798 3158 9795 3158 9782
      3149 9769 3123 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 1107Z 202DEG 24KT 3129 9793

Carlaw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
624 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2018

TXZ101-116-117-091200-
Palo Pinto TX-Parker TX-Jack TX-
624 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN JACK...NORTHWESTERN
PARKER AND NORTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM CDT...

At 624 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Graford, or 14 miles northwest of Mineral Wells, moving northeast at
40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mineral Wells, Jacksboro, Graford and Bryson.

LAT...LON 3295 9843 3309 9843 3334 9828 3318 9792
      3300 9792 3300 9788 3292 9786 3275 9832
      3295 9851
TIME...MOT...LOC 1124Z 237DEG 35KT 3291 9831

Carlaw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
759 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2018

TXZ103-118-091345-
Denton TX-Tarrant TX-
759 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DENTON AND TARRANT
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 AM CDT...

At 759 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Worth, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Worth, Arlington, Grand Prairie, Denton, Lewisville, Flower
Mound, Mansfield, Euless, Bedford, Grapevine, Haltom City, Keller,
Coppell, Hurst, Burleson, Southlake, Watauga, Colleyville, Benbrook
and Corinth.

LAT...LON 3332 9702 3260 9704 3255 9722 3256 9747
      3268 9754 3299 9754 3299 9740 3316 9739
TIME...MOT...LOC 1259Z 232DEG 28KT 3279 9744

Carlaw