Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

579 
WWUS55 KFGZ 110013
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
513 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2018

AZC005-110030-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-180811T0030Z/
Coconino-
513 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MST
FOR COCONINO COUNTY...

At 511 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located over north 
Williams, or 33 miles west of Flagstaff, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Williams, Dogtown Lake Campground and Kaibab Lake Campground. 

This includes the following highways...
 Business Interstate 40 between mile markers 163 and 165.
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 158 and 173.
 State Route 64 between mile markers 186 and 193.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 11211 3521 11198 3517 11228 3539 11231
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 069DEG 11KT 3529 11220 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

KD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
328 PM MST Fri Aug 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Deep moisture will persist over central and southern
Arizona, bringing afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
to much of the area. Areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim
will see the most activity through the weekend. Some storms will
produce heavy rainfall, hail, and strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Afternoon convective thunderstorms have been slow to
develop today, but are underway along the Mogollon Rim, White
Mountains and northeastern plateaus and mesas. The deepest
monsoonal moisture remains banked up south of the Rim across Gila
and Yavapai Counties. Large scale high pressure remains stationed
to our northwest over the Great Basin keeping a mean steering flow
from the northeast to southwest. Winds aloft are slightly higher
today than yesterday, resulting in a slight increase in wind shear
favorable for some longer lived storms. Storms will continue to
develop over the high terrain and gradually move southwest this
evening. The high resolution models this afternoon show some
agreement with a more organized convective system moving through
central Arizona this evening and possibly into the overnight
hours, and we have trended the forecast in this direction.

The best potential for any severe storms or flash flooding will
be over Gila/Yavapai Counties where the deepest moisture and
instability are. Large hail and damaging wind are possible. Storm
motion should limit the flash flood threat in general, but areas
that receive multiple rounds of rainfall could experience
flooding.

The overall pattern remains relatively unchanged over the weekend
with storms favoring the Rim southward through the afternoon with
storms moving to the southwest. This will depend on nighttime
convection and how much lingering morning cloud cover exists.
Temperatures will remain near average for this time of year,
except for some of the northern valleys such as near Winslow and
Page that are quite warm due to the lack of shower activity.

It looks like early next week will see a thinning of moisture
resulting in less storm coverage, but moisture will increase
again by the middle of the week as a deeper southerly flow
develops.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will continue this evening and possibly into the
overnight hours across northern Arizona. Storms will move to the
southwest through the evening hours. A few strong storms producing
40-50 kt winds and large hail are possible, mainly south of KFLG-KSOW.
Isolated IFR in +TSRA, with otherwise primarily VFR conditions
through the forecast period. Another round of scattered
thunderstorms is forecast for Saturday afternoon. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Deep moisture will remain in place along and
south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Expect scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms in these areas through the
weekend, with scattered storms mainly over the higher terrain
north of the Mogollon Rim to the Utah boarder. Strong outflow
winds, heavy rainfall, hail, and frequent lightning are the
primary hazards.

Monday through Wednesday...Expect scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms through the period, with the best chances for
storms continuing to be along the south of the Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1151 AM MST FRI AUG 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             PARKS                   35.26N 111.95W
08/09/2018  E1.00 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL FROM A
            SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PASSED NEAR PARKS,
            AZ. HEAVY WATER PONDING WAS ALSO REPORTED
            FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
            STORM.

&&

NL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
159 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 WSW ASH FORK          35.20N 112.60W
08/09/2018                   YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAINS CAUSED 6-8" OF FLOWING WATER
            ACROSS NORMALLY DRY RANCH LAND SEVEN MILES
            SOUTHWEST OF ASH FORK. EIGHTMILE CREEK WAS
            REPORTED TO BE OVERFLOWING THE CREEK BANKS
            SOUTH OF I-40.

&&

NL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
441 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2018

AZZ007-015-038-110015-
Coconino Plateau-Western Mogollon Rim-Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-
441 PM MST FRI AUG 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM
MST...

At 440 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm just
northeast of Williams, or 26 miles west of Flagstaff, moving south
at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Williams, Parks, Raymond Boy Scout Camp, Dogtown Lake Campground,
Kaibab Lake Campground and White Horse Lake Campground.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3542 11214 3534 11192 3507 11196 3518 11232
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 017DEG 21KT 3526 11207

KD