Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

August 9, 2018Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 9, 2018, 5:13 PM MST for Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 9, 2018, 5:13 PM MST (00:13 UTC)
Expired: Aug 9, 2018, 6:00 PM MST
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Coconino County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Las Vegas radar (KESX), 148 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 337 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -113 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1901 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 107 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

379 
WUUS55 KFGZ 100013
SVRFGZ
AZC005-025-100100-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.SV.W.0087.180810T0013Z-180810T0100Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
513 PM MST THU AUG 9 2018

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Yavapai County in west central Arizona...
  Coconino County in north central Arizona...

* Until 600 PM MST

* At 512 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles south of
  Diamond Creek Campground, or 49 miles northeast of Kingman, moving
  south at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees. 

* This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas OF
  Yavapai and Coconino Counties.

This includes Route 66 between mile markers 110 and 121.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3574 11333 3578 11320 3541 11312 3533 11333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 357DEG 19KT 3562 11331 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KD

1 follow-up statement

774 
WWUS55 KFGZ 100051
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
551 PM MST THU AUG 9 2018

AZC005-025-100100-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-180810T0100Z/
Yavapai-Coconino-
551 PM MST THU AUG 9 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM MST...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3574 11333 3578 11320 3541 11312 3533 11333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 357DEG 19KT 3545 11330 

$$

KD

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 9, 2:39 PM MST, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 9, 2:39 PM MST, 2 hours 34 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
239 PM MST Thu Aug 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Deep moisture will continue to persist over central
and southern Arizona, bringing afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms to much of the area. Areas along and southwest of
the Mogollon Rim will see the most activity through the weekend.
Some storms will produce heavy rainfall, hail, and strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Current surface analysis shows dewpoints in excess
of 50 as far north as the Grand Canyon, and extending along the
and south of the Mogollon Rim where deeper moisture resides.
Mesoscale analyses currently indicate CAPE in excess of 2000J/kg
over and south of the Mogollon Rim, and expect robust convection
to continue developing as we exceed our convective temperature.
Storms should build rapidly over the Mogollon Rim, and move to the
south and west during the late afternoon and evening with the
5-10kt steering flow. Steep lapse rates and deeply mixed boundary
layer indicated in the forecast soundings will promote strong
winds with our storms this afternoon and evening. Severe winds,
hail, and and heavy rain will be the primary threat with storms.
One complicating factor overnight will be the circulation (weak
shortwave) currenly near the Four Corners moving southward on the
backside of the ridge - this may serve to amplify convection over
eastern Arizona this evening and overnight.

In general, little change in the pattern will be observed through
the weekend, with ample moisture in place and weak flow aloft. A
trough moving across the Pacific NW will decrease the amplitude of
the ridge over the Great Basin, but keep us with light steering
flow from the north or northeast. This, and some drier air working
in from the east late on the weekend, should keep the greatest
storm threat along and south of the Mogollon Rim.

Typical monsoon season thunderstorm activity will continue next
week. There are some indications that drier air may continue to be
ingested into the area and suppress thunderstorm activity early
next week, but it's really too soon to say with confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...Expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to continue along and south of a line from KGCN-
KFLG-KSOW-KSJN, moving to the south and west through Yavapai and
northern Gila counties this evening. These storms will produce
outflow winds between 30 to 40 knots, and MVFR visibilities in
heavy rain. Isolated thunderstorms expected over northeast AZ.
Thunderstorm activity will diminish late tonight, and redevelop
over the higher terrain after 18Z Friday. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Deep moisture will remain in place along and
south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Expect scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms in these areas Friday and
Saturday, with scattered storms mainly over the higher terrain north
of the Mogollon Rim. Strong outflow winds, heavy rainfall, hail,
and frequent lightning are the primary hazards.

Sunday through Tuesday...Expect scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms through the period, with the best chances for
storms continuing to be along the south of the Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...BAK
AVIATION...BAK/RR
FIRE WEATHER...BAK/RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 9, 2:03 PM MST, 3 hours 10 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
203 PM MST THU AUG 9 2018

AZZ015-092130-
Western Mogollon Rim-
203 PM MST THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM
MST...

At 202 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Walnut Canyon National Monument, or near Flagstaff, moving south at
10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cosnino, Mountainaire, Walnut Canyon National Monument, Upper Lake
Mary, Upper Lake Mary Boat Ramps, Walnut Canyon Visitors Center,
Pinegrove Campground, Lower Lake Mary, Canyon Vista Campground, Lake
View Campground and Ashurst Lake Campgrounds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3524 11153 3523 11144 3501 11140 3506 11169
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 010DEG 11KT 3518 11150

RR

Local storm report, Aug 9, 2:36 PM MST, 2 hours 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
236 PM MST THU AUG 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             4 S COSNINO             35.15N 111.48W
08/09/2018  E0.50 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            REPORT OF DIME-SIZED HAIL.

&&

DB

Local storm report, Aug 9, 3:28 PM MST, 1 hour 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
328 PM MST THU AUG 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             4 ESE BELLEMONT (NWS FL 35.20N 111.75W
08/09/2018  M1.00 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OBSERVED 1 INCH HAIL ON I-40 1/2 MILE WEST
            OF EXIT 190.

&&

DB

Local storm report, Aug 9, 3:45 PM MST, 1 hour 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 PM MST THU AUG 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             1 N FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT   35.15N 111.67W
08/09/2018  E1.50 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORTED AT 5078 S AMETHYST, FLAGSTAFF, AZ.

&&

KD

Local storm report, Aug 9, 3:46 PM MST, 1 hour 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
346 PM MST THU AUG 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             2 WSW DOWNTOWN FLAGSTAF 35.18N 111.68W
08/09/2018  E1.25 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT 2050 W UNIVERSITY AVE,
            FLAGSTAFF, AZ.

&&

KD

Special weather statement, Aug 9, 5:11 PM MST, 2 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
511 PM MST THU AUG 9 2018

AZZ018-100045-
Northern Gila County-
511 PM MST THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILA COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM MST...

At 510 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
East Verde Estates, or near Payson, moving southwest at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Payson, Oxbow Estates, Freedom Acres, Flowing Springs, East Verde
Estates, Mesa Del Caballo, Houston Mesa Campground, Tonto Natural
Bridge State Park and Beaver Valley.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3438 11145 3433 11126 3411 11136 3420 11158
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 028DEG 17KT 3428 11140

KD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 9, 5:00 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	3 hr
Aug 9, 5:11 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		34 min
Aug 9, 5:21 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Apache	39 min
Aug 9, 5:34 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	3 hr
Aug 9, 5:48 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	27 min
Aug 9, 6:23 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		52 min
Aug 9, 6:30 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	45 min
Aug 9, 7:14 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	46 min
Aug 9, 7:22 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	38 min
Aug 10, 1:27 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Gila	20 min
Aug 10, 2:14 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Gila	32 min
Aug 10, 2:38 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	52 min
Aug 10, 3:29 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	31 min
Aug 10, 4:41 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		34 min
Aug 10, 4:52 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	38 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.