Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
253 PM MST Thu Jul 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
through at least Saturday. The greatest coverage and highest
potential for stronger storms will be over the Mogollon Rim and
Yavapai County where areas of heavy rain could produce localized
flooding. Warmer afternoon temperatures and less storm coverage
may start on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms developed over the higher
terrain of northern Arizona by late morning. Most storms are
moving slowly to the west this afternoon with some areas receiving
heavy to very heavy rain and hail. Local street flooding and
flowing and washes have also been reported under the stronger
storms.

Storms will decrease some after dark tonight...but some storms
will continue well past midnight.

For Friday and Saturday, the subtropical high pressure re-
centers near Four Corners on Friday. This puts northern Arizona
in very light south to southeast flow pattern with rich monsoon
moisture through Saturday. Expect primarily afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms with storms moving very slowly from
south to north. Heavy rain and flash flooding will be the main
storm threats.

From Sunday through Thursday...The ridge of high pressure slowly
moves westward over Arizona. This will decrease the southerly
flow of deep moisture into Arizona. Temperatures will also
increase high temperatures to above average levels.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...NUMRS SHRA/TSRA with MVFR/IFR
conditions and gusty winds through 02Z. VFR conditions outside of
storms. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA after 02Z. Storms will develop again
Friday after 17Z becoming SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA with ISOLD +TSRAGR by
19Z-20Z. Convective activity most wdsprd after 21Z. Strongest
storms will produce localized MVFR/IFR conditions and wind gusts
to 50kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An active monsoon pattern with scattered to
numerous slow moving thunderstorms will continue through Saturday.
Heavy rain and erratic thunderstorm winds will be the main threats.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds will generally be light.

Sunday through Tuesday...Thunderstorm chances will continue each day
through the weekend into early next week. There is a possibility of
a slight downturn in activity sometime next week with a warming
trend.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1229 PM MST THU JUL 19 2018

AZZ011-192015-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
1229 PM MST THU JUL 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR APACHE COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM MST...

At 1229 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Window Rock. This storm was nearly stationary.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Defiance, Window Rock and St. Michaels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 10918 3572 10922 3581 10905 3579 10904
      3556 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 227DEG 8KT 3570 10907

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1257 PM MST THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     HAIL             2 SSE FLAGSTAFF MALL    35.20N 111.56W
07/19/2018  E0.75 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   PUBLIC

            EXACT LOCATION IS AN ESTIMATE.

&&

MCT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
136 PM MST THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 PM     HAIL             3 S FLAGSTAFF MALL      35.18N 111.58W
07/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MCT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
236 PM MST THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE FLAGSTAFF MALL    35.22N 111.57W
07/19/2018  E4.57 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   MESONET

            ALERT RAIN GAUGE NEAR FLAGSTAFF MALL. THE
            DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 1 HOUR
            45 MINUTES.

&&

MCT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
248 PM MST THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E DOWNTOWN FLAGSTAFF  35.20N 111.61W
07/19/2018                   COCONINO           AZ   PUBLIC

            REPORT WITH VIDEOS FROM TWITTER SHOW
            ESTIMATED 2.5 TO 3 FEET OF FLOWING WATER IN
            WASH ALONG SIDE 4TH STREET/BUTLER AVE
            INTERSECTION (SWITZER WASH).

&&

MCT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
311 PM MST THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E FLAGSTAFF MALL      35.22N 111.57W
07/19/2018                   COCONINO           AZ   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM TWITTER WITH PHOTOS OF FLOODED
            PARKING LOT AT VOLKSWAGEN DEALERSHIP. WATER
            UP TO THE HOOD OF VEHICLES. ESTIMATED 2 FEET
            DEEP. THE TIME WAS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 1:00 TO
            2:00 PM.

&&

MCT