Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
352 PM MST Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a good chance of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms through at least Saturday. The greatest coverage
and highest potential for stronger storms will be over Coconino
and Yavapai counties where areas of heavy rain could lead to
flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms initiated over the San Francisco Peaks
this afternoon with some very impressive rainfall amounts of 4 to
almost 6 inches being reported on the eastern slopes of the peaks.
Storms have pushed southwest of the Mogollon Rim into Yavapai
County which will be the focus for the more centered and stronger
storms this afternoon and evening. Soils are already saturated
here and additional heavy rain could lead to areas of flooding.
Elsewhere will continue to see scattered thunderstorms into this
evening. Storms should begin to dissipate by late this evening.

Similar conditions are forecast on Thursday with atmospheric
conditions changing very little. There will be even less steering
flow meaning storms will be slow moving and have the potential to
produce heavy rain.

By Friday, the subtropical high pressure centers closer to the
Four Corners leaving Arizona in more of a southerly flow pattern
and continued rich monsoon moisture through the upcoming weekend.
Expect daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms with storms moving from the south to the north.
Heavy rain and flash flooding will continue to be the great storm
threats.

As the high centers over Arizona by the middle of next week, it's
possible some drier air will move into northern sections of the
state. This could lead to a slight decrease in storm coverage, but
an actual "break" is looking less likely.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered to numerous TSRA will
persist through late this evening before dissipating overnight.
Isolated IFR in +RA in the stronger storms with erratic wind
gusts to 30 kts possible. Scattered TSRA will redevelop aft 17Z
Thursday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An active monsoon pattern with scattered to numerous
thunderstorms each day will continue through the week. Heavy rain
and erratic thunderstorm winds will be the main threats. Outside
of thunderstorms, winds will generally be light.

Saturday through Monday...Thunderstorm chances will continue
each day through the weekend into early next week. There is a
possibility of a slight downturn in activity sometime next week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
458 PM MST WED JUL 18 2018

AZZ008-037-190045-
Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-Yavapai County  Mountains-
458 PM MST WED JUL 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CHILDS POWER PLANT
AREA OF YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM MST...

At 457 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Childs Power Plant, or 25 miles south of Camp
Verde. this storm was nearly stationary.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas OF Yavapai County.

LAT...LON 3428 11171 3410 11174 3407 11196 3434 11192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 096DEG 0KT 3420 11182

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
538 PM MST WED JUL 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE STEAMBOAT CANYON  35.75N 109.85W
07/18/2018  E1.50 INCH       APACHE             AZ   PUBLIC

            HIGHWAY 264 FLOODED IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS
            BETWEEN MILE POST 430 AND 436. ADOT CLEARING
            DEBRIS OFF ROAD.

&&

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
550 PM MST WED JUL 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E PRESCOTT COURTHOUSE 34.54N 112.45W
07/18/2018  E0.75 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL. SOME MAY HAVE BEEN QUARTER
            SIZED.

&&

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
554 PM MST WED JUL 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE PRESCOTT COURTHOU 34.55N 112.44W
07/18/2018  E1.50 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 69 FLOODING--CARS STILL MAKING IT
            THROUGH.

&&

MAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
600 PM MST WED JUL 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             1 E PRESCOTT COURTHOUSE 34.54N 112.45W
07/18/2018  E0.75 INCH       YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZED HAIL. SOME MAY HAVE BEEN QUARTER
            SIZED.

&&

MAS

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