Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
301 PM MST Wed Oct 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Abundant moisture and an approaching low will combine
to produce another round of showers and thunderstorms into
tonight. Chances for storms decrease on Thursday, but an
unsettled weather pattern will bring below normal daytime
temperatures, and the potential for rain showers and high
elevation snowfall this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As we head into the evening, one of the main concerns will be any
strong storms occurring over locations that received excessive
rainfall on Tuesday, as the flooding risk will be heightened
there. The potential for locally severe storms will exist into
tonight as well, and the Storm Prediction Center has much of
Coconino and Yavapai counties in an area for marginal risk of
severe weather.

Later tonight, the approaching low causing much of our current
weather weakens into an open wave whose trough axis crosses the
area Thursday morning. Behind the trough, chances for showers
decrease for Thursday and Friday. A deepening low over the western
United States this weekend will produce below normal daytime
temperatures and an unsettled pattern through much of the next
work week. Some high elevation snowfall will be possible, although
snow levels currently look to remain above population centers.
Still, this is an evolving forecast that will require close
attention in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will persist this evening and into the overnight
hours with localized MVFR/IFR. A few storms could become strong to
severe later tonight mainly northwest of KFLG aft 03Z. Gusty and
erratic winds likely near strong storms. There may also be
isolated low ceilings early Thurs morning from any areas that
receive additional rainfall. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
through this evening. Some storms may become severe later
tonight across Coconino County as a trough moves through the area.
A few showers may linger into midday Thursday, with otherwise dry
and cool weather expected through Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Breezy, cool and unsettled weather is
expected over the weekend as another low pressure system moves
into the southwestern states. Expect a good chance for rain and
perhaps mountain snow showers from Saturday evening through
Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch until 5 PM
MST this afternoon FOR AZZ008-016-018-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1045 AM MST WED OCT 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OAK CREEK 3 N SLIDE ROC 34.99N 111.75W
10/02/2018                   COCONINO           AZ   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            THE WEST FORK-SEDONA RIVER GAUGE ON OAK
            CREEK RECORDED A CREST OF 3.64 FEET AT 10:50
            PM MST DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME AND HEAVY
            OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AROUND SLIDE ROCK STATE
            PARK AND NORTH TOWARDS KACHINA VILLAGE. THIS
            IS APPROXIMATELY 3.05 FEET HIGHER RECORDED
            FLOW HEIGHT COMPARED TO BEFORE THE RAINFALL.

&&

NL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1108 AM MST WED OCT 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CENTRAL AVE OF MAYER    34.41N 112.24W
10/02/2018                   YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF GREATER THAN TWO FEET OF
            WATER FLOWED THROUGH BIG BUG CREEK. THIS
            EVENT WAS DUE TO MODERATE DAYTIME AND HEAVY
            EVENING RAINFALL IN AND AROUND MAYER. THE
            FLOW LASTED FROM MID-AFTERNOON UNTIL AT
            LEAST AFTER 6:15 PM.

&&

NL