Flash Flood Warning 148, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

473 
WGUS75 KFGZ 031251
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
551 AM MST WED OCT 3 2018

AZC005-025-031300-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0148.000000T0000Z-181003T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-Coconino-
551 AM MST WED OCT 3 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 600 AM MST...

Flood waters are receding, but flow will remain elevated along Oak 
Creek and surrounding creeks and streams this morning. Please 
continue to use caution and heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3504 11169 3491 11168 3497 11182 3507 11177

$$

TPS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1005 PM MST Tue Oct 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
across northern Arizona through this evening before gradually
tapering off. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is
expected on Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially in western
Coconino and Yavapai counties. A much colder storm system is
expected this weekend with rain and high elevation snow.

&&

.UPDATE...Active evening with a ling of persistent storms from
near Congress, through the Verde Valley, Flagstaff, and
northeastward. Have issued several products as rainfall rates have
reached 3/4 of an inch in some locations directly under the
heavier storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /433 PM MST/...The extremely heavy rainfall
amounts that were expected over southeast Yavapai County and the
eastern Mogollon Rim have materialized today, while areas farther
north and west including Prescott and Flagstaff have seen amounts
on the lower end. The most impressive amounts so far have been
from Crown King to near Cordes and Sunset Point where 3.50" to
5.00" amounts have been recorded. Also, along the eastern Mogollon
Rim north of Payson there has been 2.00" to 3.00" of rain since
this morning. The heaviest amounts have been in the favored
upslope regions just east of the track of the remnant tropical
low-mid level circulation. For the rest of today and tonight, the
depth of moisture over the region is expected to become more
shallow, decreasing the efficiency of rainfall. There will still
be a few hours however where additional heavy rain should continue
over the favored areas. We will keep the Flash Flood Watch going
overnight in Yavapai County and over the eastern Mogollon Rim but
the watch was cancelled farther north over most of Coconino
County. With the saturated low level air mass in place, there will
also be patches of fog through Wednesday morning.

Wednesday - a low pressure system will move onto the southern
California coast during the day and open up as it crosses southern
NV and northwest AZ Wednesday evening and overnight. Low level
moisture will remain plentiful, so cooling mid level temperatures
and large scale lift with the approaching low should produce a
round of showers and thunderstorms, espousal over Coconino and
much of Yavapai counties. Increasing deep layer wind shear will
also bring a chance of some strong to severe thunderstorms, with
hail and strong wind the main threats. Western Yavapai and NW
Coconino county are included in a slight risk area from the Storm
Prediction Center, with the marginal risk stretching farther east
through Yavapai County and along the Mogollon Rim.

Thursday and Friday - we will be in between systems with little to
no chance of rain and temperatures slightly below normal. Saturday
and Sunday - model guidance and ensembles remain in good agreement
that a deep and cold trough will move into Arizona from the north.
This is likely to bring much colder temperatures with increasing
winds and a good chance of rain and high elevation snow. Will
continue to fine tune the forecast through the week, stay tuned
for more details.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...MVFR/IFR conditions present for
much of northern Arizona overnight with lingering light rain and
developing fog. A line of slow moving showers and thunderstorms near
KSEZ-KFLG and extending to the northeast continues to move east and
should affect KINW by 12Z. Chance of wide spread thunderstorms
developing from NW to SE after 14Z lasting through 24Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Light to moderate rainfall continues through
over night. Showers and thunderstorms will develop this morning with
some possibly becoming severe. The best chance for these storms is
across Yavapai and Coconino counties. Gusty southwest winds
Thursday. Cooler temperatures will persist regionwide.

.Friday through Sunday...Unsettled weather will prevail with
cooler temperatures and gusty southwest winds at times. Possible
return of precipitation on Sunday with much cooler temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM MST Wednesday FOR AZZ008-016-018-
037-038.

&&

PUBLIC...MAS/JJ
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB/NL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1037 PM MST TUE OCT 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     HEAVY RAIN       9 N UPTOWN SEDONA       35.00N 111.76W
10/02/2018  E1.00 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HEAVY RAIN DISLODGED LARGE BOULDERS THAT FELL ON HIGHWAY 89A IN OAK
CREEK CANYON ABOUT 9 MILES NORTH OF SEDONA AT MILEPOST 382.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1041 PM MST TUE OCT 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     HEAVY RAIN       9 N UPTOWN SEDONA       35.00N 111.76W
10/02/2018  E1.00 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HEAVY RAIN DISLODGED BOULDERS THAT FELL ON HIGHWAY 89A IN OAK CREEK
CANYON ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH OF SEDONA AT MILEPOST 388. THE HIGHWAY
WAS CLOSED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1142 PM MST TUE OCT 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DOWNTOWN FLAGSTAFF      35.20N 111.65W
10/02/2018                   COCONINO           AZ   PUBLIC

            PHOTO FROM THE PUBLIC OF A CAR IN A DIP IN
            THE ROAD WITH WATER UP TO THE DOOR HANDLES.
            SHE TOOK THE PHOTO AT 9:21 IN SOUTHSIDE FLG;
            ITS THAT DIP ON S LEROUX THAT MOST
            FREQUENTLY FLOODS, JUST BY THE INTERSECTION
            WITH W COTTAGE.

&&

DB