Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

457 
WGUS75 KFGZ 162313
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
413 PM MST MON JUL 16 2018

AZC025-170100-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-180717T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
413 PM MST MON JUL 16 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 407 PM MST, Doppler radar indicates thunderstorms have largely 
diminished in the vicinity of Crown King. Up to two inches of rain 
have already fallen. Expect flash flooding through area washes and 
portions of Humbug Creek over the next hour or two.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Crown King, Lake Pleasant, Turney Gulch Group Campground and Hazlett
Hollow Campground.

This includes the following streams and drainages...Poland Creek...
Jim Creek...Cherry Creek...Tiger Creek...and Humbug Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 11247 3427 11229 3392 11223 3390 11224
      3390 11226 3389 11227

$$

RR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
954 AM MST Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The monsoon weather pattern will continue over Arizona
this week, with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The
main threat with storms today will be heavy rainfall and localized
flooding.

&&

.UPDATE...The 12z KFGZ sounding indicated a PW of 1.08 inches this
morning. With copious amounts of moisture in place, increasing
instability, and weak steering flow, another round of
scattered/numerous thunderstorms are slated to develop along the
Mogollon Rim around midday. Brief periods of heavy rain and
localized flash flooding will be the primary threats. Deadly cloud
to ground lightning with be a secondary threat.

Only updated the forecast to better reflect the current PoPs/Wx
and its subsequent obs/trends. The remaining weather elements are
in good shape. The updated gridded and text products have been
sent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /503 AM MST/...At 430 AM - mostly cloudy skies
persist across northern Arizona as debris cloudiness from Sunday's
storms has been slow to dissipate. There are also some scattered
showers across Yavapai and Coconino counties. The mid level ridge
axis stretches from the Pacific into southern UT/CO which places
our area in an easterly steering flow. Overall, the pattern is
similar to what was in place yesterday when several areas of
storms developed containing torrential rainfall rates of 2+ inches
in under an hour. However, the day began fairly sunny which
allowed rapid destabilization. Today - it looks like clouds may be
slower to diminish so storms will probably develop later into the
afternoon and move off to the west around 10 mph. With more
uncertainty in cloud cover and surface heating today, we held off
on a Flash Flood Watch. If it becomes apparent that clouds will
dissipate through the morning, a watch may be issued so stay alert
for that.

Tuesday through Thursday - high pressure strengthens and becomes
centered over southern Utah. Precipitable water values stay about
the same from the Mogollon Rim southward but drop a bit in
northeast Arizona. The mid levels look somewhat drier so while we
expect daily rounds of scattered storms, coverage should be
somewhat lower especially in northeast Arizona. Rainfall
efficiency in the storms will also be less due to drier mid
levels, so the flash flood threat won't be quite as high.

Friday through Sunday - the ridge is forecast to remain strong and
shift into New Mexico. Models are forecasting warmer daytime
temperatures and for enough moisture for scattered storms to
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA will
begin over higher terrain between 1830-1900Z, becoming wide
spread in the afternoon, and diminishing after 02Z. Local
MVFR/IFR conditions with gusty, erratic winds near the showers and
thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with a threat of
heavy rain each afternoon/evening will continue through Friday.
Moisture begins to decrease by the weekend in to next week with
thunderstorm coverage becoming more isolated. Gusty and erratic
winds may develop near thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TM/JJ
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...TM

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1143 AM MST MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DIAMOND VALLEY          34.56N 112.39W
07/15/2018                   YAVAPAI            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING IN DIAMOND VALLEY AREA. DIAMOND
            DRIVE WASHED OUT, AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
            OVER ROADS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

BAK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1144 AM MST MON JUL 16 2018

AZZ009-039-161930-
Black Mesa Area-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-
1144 AM MST MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NAVAJO COUNTY UNTIL 1230 PM
MST...

At 1144 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Forest Lake Chapter House, or 30 miles north of Keams Canyon, moving
south at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas OF Navajo County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 11026 3626 11017 3611 11020 3616 11035
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 018DEG 17KT 3625 11023

MAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1151 AM MST MON JUL 16 2018

AZZ006-007-161915-
Coconino Plateau-Grand Canyon Country-
1151 AM MST MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 1215 PM
MST...

At 1150 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tusayan, or 19 miles west of Desert View at Grand Canyon, moving
southwest at 5 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Maricopa Point At Grand Canyon, Tusayan, South Rim Visitors Center,
Hopi Point At Grand Canyon, Grand Canyon Village and Ten-x
Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 11214 3595 11202 3586 11222 3600 11232
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 056DEG 6KT 3599 11216

MAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1210 PM MST MON JUL 16 2018

AZZ018-161945-
Northern Gila County-
1210 PM MST MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILA COUNTY UNTIL 1245 PM MST...

At 1208 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cedar Creek, or 31 miles south of Show Low, moving west at 15 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Apache Reservation, Cedar Creek, Whiteriver and Canyon Day.
Highway 60 north of Salt River Canyon will also be impacted.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3373 11021 3383 11033 3382 11042 3383 11046
      3397 11045 3398 11001 3372 11001
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 094DEG 13KT 3381 11022

MAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1225 PM MST MON JUL 16 2018

AZZ007-008-162000-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County  Mountains-
1225 PM MST MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES
UNTIL 100 PM MST...

At 1222 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles south of Fraziers Well, or 56 miles northeast of Kingman,
moving west at 10 mph. Route 66 near Indean Route 18 may also be
inpacted by this storm.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas OF Yavapai and
Coconino Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Very Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3569 11333 3562 11303 3544 11303 3542 11333
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 096DEG 10KT 3554 11312

MAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1243 PM MST MON JUL 16 2018

AZZ009-039-162030-
Black Mesa Area-Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-
1243 PM MST MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NAVAJO COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM MST...

At 1242 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Blue Gap Chapter House, or 27 miles north of Keams
Canyon. this storm was nearly stationary.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas OF Navajo County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Very Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 11020 3628 11004 3609 11006 3611 11024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 357DEG 4KT 3621 11013

MAS