Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

213 
WGUS75 KFGZ 161046
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
346 AM MST MON JUL 16 2018

AZC025-161053-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-180716T1045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
346 AM MST MON JUL 16 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 345 AM
MST...

The flash flood wave down the Agua Fria River reached Black Canyon 
City at around 230 AM. River levels will remain elevated but slowly 
recede over the next few hours. Continue to heed any road closures 
at low water crossings.

LAT...LON 3404 11219 3423 11209 3421 11207 3411 11209
      3404 11212 3405 11216 3404 11216

$$
JJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
923 PM MST Sun Jul 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The monsoon weather pattern will continue over
Arizona through next week, with daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. The main threat with storms today will be heavy
rainfall and localized flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Stratiform light rain is all that remains from
another day of active monsoonal activity in northern Arizona.
Expect lingering showers into the overnight hours. Little changes
in the weather pattern as we head into early next week. Light
easterly flow and a very moist airmass over the region will
continue to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. An elevated flash flooding threat will remain in place
as light steering flow combines with saturated soils from the
past weeks rain. With the light easterly flow persisting, expect
the Mogollon Rim, western Coconino, and Yavapai counties to
continue to have the greatest threat for widespread heavy
rainfall.

THe current forecast handles this well and no updates are needed
at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /238 PM MST/...Little change in the weather
pattern is expected over the next week, with weak flow and only
minor changes in the position and intensity of the high parked
over the SW. We expect the robust monsoon conditions to continue
through the forecast period, with PW values continuing to run
well above average - at or above 1" for the Flagstaff area. Long
range ensembles are hinting at some drying by next weekend, but
certainly not enough to significantly diminish the threat of
significant thunderstorms each day.

With soils becoming more and more saturated across N. Arizona, the
daily threat of flash flooding will persist with the thunderstorms
forming the area.

Today's forecast is on track, with heavy rain and high rainfall
rates (2-3" / hr) reported across the area. We'll continue the
Flash Flood Watch through 7 PM MST. Primary threat area this
afternoon and evening will lean toward Yavapai County, where
instability (CAPES to 2500) will engender the production of
additional thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect mostly VFR conditions and
light winds across northern Arizona. A few lingering -SHRA/-TSRA may
persist north of the Mogollon Rim over night. Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA
will begin over higher terrain after 18Z becoming wide spread in the
afternoon and diminishing after 02Z. Local MVFR/IFR conditions with
gusty, erratic winds near the showers and thunderstorms. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with a threat of
heavy rain each afternoon/evening will continue through Friday.
Light winds will produce slow moving storms with heavy rainfall.
Moisture will begin to decrease by the weekend in to next week with
thunderstorm coverage becoming more isolated. Gusty and erratic
winds may develop near thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TPS/BAK
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
946 PM MST SUN JUL 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NE BLACK CANYON CITY  34.10N 112.11W
07/15/2018                   YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

            AGUA FRIA RIVER GAUGE ABOVE BLACK CANYON
            CITY ROSE ABOVE 3.14 FEET ACTIVE AT
            07/15/2018 21:19:20 STAGE EXCEEDS 3 FT. THE
            DURATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD EVENT WAS 6
            HOURS.

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
953 PM MST SUN JUL 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ESE CORDES JUNCTION   34.31N 112.05W
07/15/2018                   YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

            AGUA FRIA RIVER GAUGE AT KELTON RANCH ROSE
            ABOVE 4.31 FEET ACTIVE AT 07/15/2018
            20:50:00 STAGE EXCEEDS 3 FT.

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1106 PM MST SUN JUL 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ESE CORDES JUNCTION   34.31N 112.05W
07/15/2018                   YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 4
            ESE CORDES JUNCTION. AGUA FRIA RIVER GAUGE
            AT KELTON RANCH ROSE FROM 1.01 FT TO FIRST
            PEAK AT 3.66 FT 18:20, DROPPED TO 2.37 FT
            THEN ROSE TO SECOND PEAK AT 4.31 FT AT 20:50
            STAGE EXCEEDS 3 FT.

&&

DB