Flash Flood Warning 143, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

592 
WGUS75 KFGZ 022022
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
122 PM MST TUE OCT 2 2018

AZC017-022130-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0143.000000T0000Z-181002T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Navajo-
122 PM MST TUE OCT 2 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM MST/330 PM
MDT/ FOR NAVAJO COUNTY...

At 117 PM MST/217 PM MDT/, Doppler radar indicated a few light rain 
showers across the warned area.  An estimated one to two inches of 
rain have fallen over the last several hours. Flooding is likely 
ongoing.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Dilkon, Castle Butte, Tees Toh, Cedar Springs, Seba Dalkai and Indian
Wells.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
Blairs Spring Wash...Tees Toh Wash...Fern Feather Wash... Coyote 
Wash...Billy Wash...Humpy Wash...Pueblo Colorado Wash...Cottonwood 
Wash...Manila Wash... Bidahochi Wash and Ha-whi-yalin Wash.

This includes State Route 87 between mile markers 351 and 386.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 11069 3519 11071 3537 11063 3553 11044
      3559 11000 3539 11003 3522 11011 3502 11039

$$

663 
WGUS75 KFGZ 022125
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
225 PM MST TUE OCT 2 2018

AZC017-022132-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0143.000000T0000Z-181002T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Navajo-
225 PM MST TUE OCT 2 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NAVAJO COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 230 PM
MST/330 PM MDT/...

Occasional light rain showers continue to affect the Dilkon and 
Castle Butte areas, but flood waters should be receding. The 
flooding threat is expected to slowly decrease through the afternoon 
and evening. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3508 11069 3519 11071 3537 11063 3553 11044
      3559 11000 3539 11003 3522 11011 3502 11039

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1012 AM MST Tue Oct 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue across northern Arizona through this evening before
gradually tapering off. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
is expected on Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially in
western Coconino and Yavapai counties. Unsettled, cool and
showery weather is expected to persist for much of the remainder
of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Deep tropical moisture continues to flow northward
across the region this morning. Heavy rainfall is occurring over
southeast Yavapai, northwest Gila and far southeast Coconino
counties this morning as the mid level circulation cross just west
of that area. This is enhancing upslope flow and allowing for
rainfall rates to reach 0.40"-0.60" per hour in the favored areas.
The heaviest rainfall has been around Crown King to Cordes where
totals since Monday are now reaching the 2-3"+ range. Some
significant rises have been noted on creeks and rivers in these
areas. The risk of heavy rainfall is primarily from this area
along the eastern Mogollon Rim. Farther north, most rainfall rates
have been lower, and flooding risk is lower. It does look like
the deepest moisture and forcing for heavy rain will gradually
shift east and northeast through the day. We are watching
northeast Arizona including the Navajo and Hopi nations for the
possibility of some minor flooding later today as steady rainfall
continues in that area. Sent some minor forecast updates earlier
with no additional changes expected until this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /340 AM MST/...The remnants of Rosa have finally
made their way northward into the region, with steady light to
moderate rain falling across most of Yavapai, Coconino, and
northern Gila counties early this morning. The highest rainfall
rates observed have been between 0.25-0.50 inches per hour over
Yavapai County. This area of heavier rainfall will continue to
push north through the morning into Coconino County.

Based on latest radar trends and model guidance, a reduction in
forecasted rainfall amounts was made with this forecast package.
Much drier air seen on water vapor imagery will push into the
region late this afternoon and evening leading to a reduction in
precipitation coverage and intensity. Total rainfall amounts
through Wednesday morning are now expected to be in the 1-2 inch
range over Yavapai and northern Gila counties with locally higher
amounts of up to 3 inches on the south facing slopes. For the
remainder of the area, a widespread 0.50-1.50 inch rainfall is
expected. These rainfall totals could still produce flash flooding
concerns across the region so the Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect through 5 am Wednesday. However, based on the dry air noted
above later shifts will determine whether it can be cancelled
early.

On Wednesday, the trough along the West Coast will move closer to
the area leading to continued shower and thunderstorm chances.
Low level moisture remaining in place along with increased shear
and instability will produce an environment more favorable for
some organized convection. Latest model guidance indicates the
area of most concern would be across Yavapai and Coconino counties
in the afternoon and evening hours. We will continue to monitor
this potential closely.

As the trough pushes through the region early Thursday, a brief
lull in the active weather is expected through Friday. Long range
model guidance continues to indicate a deep, cold trough digging
into the region over the weekend and into early next week. This
would bring unsettled weather with widespread showers including
snow at the higher elevations and well below normal temperatures.
Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Moisture from the remnants of
Tropical Depression Rosa continue to move across northern AZ.
MVFR/IFR conditions present for many locations through at least 00Z
Wednesday as widespread showers persist. Widespread showers begin to
end first near KPRC and will end last near KRQE to the NE. Afternoon
thunderstorm development is possible. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Widespread wetting rainfall continues today,
with the highest amounts along and south of the Mogollon Rim.
Between 1 to 2 inches of rain is forecast across portions of Yavapai
and northern Gila counties, with locally higher amounts likely. Rain
showers continue Wednesday, with the best chances across Yavapai and
Coconino counties.

.Thursday through Saturday...Unsettled weather will prevail with
cooler temperatures and gusty southwest winds at times.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch through late
tonight FOR AZZ004>008-015-016-018-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC...JJ/TPS
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff