Flash Flood Warning 142, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

333 
WGUS75 KFGZ 021715
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1015 AM MST TUE OCT 2 2018

AZC025-021945-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0142.000000T0000Z-181002T1945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
1015 AM MST TUE OCT 2 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 1010 AM MST, Doppler radar indicated that light to moderate rain 
was continuing to fall over the warned area. Area automated gauges 
had recorded from two to 3.5 inches of rain over the last 
several hours. Flash flooding is likely ongoing.

At 10 AM MST, the stream gauge along the Agua Fria River at Rock 
Springs recorded a stage of 5.1 feet, or about 640 cubic feet per 
second. This is about a three-and-a-half foot rise since 730 AM.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Cordes Junction, Bumble Bee, Cordes Lakes, Crown King, Black Canyon
City, Rock Springs, Castle Hot Springs, Cordes, Spring Valley, Lake
Pleasant, Turney Gulch Group Campground and Hazlett Hollow
Campground.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 17 between mile markers 242 and 275.
 State Route 69 between mile markers 263 and 268.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

&&

LAT...LON 3397 11264 3413 11256 3425 11245 3433 11228
      3450 11204 3443 11190 3403 11200 3405 11216
      3401 11216 3402 11218 3398 11219 3395 11224
      3392 11224 3388 11228

$$

819 
WGUS75 KFGZ 021822
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1122 AM MST TUE OCT 2 2018

AZC025-021945-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0142.000000T0000Z-181002T1945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
1122 AM MST TUE OCT 2 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 1114 AM MST, Doppler radar indicated that light rain was falling 
over the area, with some moderate rain largely near and east of 
Interstate 17. Automated rain gauges have recorded from 2.25 to 
almost four inches of rain over the past several hours. Flash 
flooding of creeks, washes, and low water crossings is ongoing.

At 11 AM MST, the stream gauge along the Agua Fria east of Cordes 
Lakes had risen about three feet since 8 AM and was measuring near 
325 cubic feet per second. 

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Cordes Junction, Bumble Bee, Cordes Lakes, Crown King, Black Canyon
City, Rock Springs, Castle Hot Springs, Cordes, Spring Valley, Lake
Pleasant, Turney Gulch Group Campground and Hazlett Hollow
Campground.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 17 between mile markers 242 and 275.
 State Route 69 between mile markers 263 and 268.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

&&

LAT...LON 3390 11232 3410 11252 3425 11245 3433 11228
      3450 11204 3443 11190 3403 11200 3405 11216
      3401 11216 3402 11218 3398 11219 3395 11224
      3392 11224 3388 11228

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
340 AM MST Tue Oct 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue across northern Arizona through this evening before
gradually tapering off. Unsettled, cool and showery weather is
expected to persist for much of the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The remnants of Rosa have finally made their way
northward into the region, with steady light to moderate rain
falling across most of Yavapai, Coconino, and northern Gila
counties early this morning. The highest rainfall rates observed
have been between 0.25-0.50 inches per hour over Yavapai County.
This area of heavier rainfall will continue to push north through
the morning into Coconino County.

Based on latest radar trends and model guidance, a reduction in
forecasted rainfall amounts was made with this forecast package.
Much drier air seen on water vapor imagery will push into the
region late this afternoon and evening leading to a reduction in
precipitation coverage and intensity. Total rainfall amounts
through Wednesday morning are now expected to be in the 1-2 inch
range over Yavapai and northern Gila counties with locally higher
amounts of up to 3 inches on the south facing slopes. For the
remainder of the area, a widespread 0.50-1.50 inch rainfall is
expected. These rainfall totals could still produce flash flooding
concerns across the region so the Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect through 5 am Wednesday. However, based on the dry air noted
above later shifts will determine whether it can be cancelled
early.

On Wednesday, the trough along the West Coast will move closer to
the area leading to continued shower and thunderstorm chances.
Low level moisture remaining in place along with increased shear
and instability will produce an environment more favorable for
some organized convection. Latest model guidance indicates the
area of most concern would be across Yavapai and Coconino counties
in the afternoon and evening hours. We will continue to monitor
this potential closely.

As the trough pushes through the region early Thursday, a brief
lull in the active weather is expected through Friday. Long range
model guidance continues to indicate a deep, cold trough digging
into the region over the weekend and into early next week. This
would bring unsettled weather with widespread showers including
snow at the higher elevations and well below normal temperatures.
Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Moisture associated with the
remnants of Tropical Storm Rosa will continue to move into the area
from the south lowering ceilings and visibilities as the morning
progresses. The most significant reductions to flight category will
occur over higher terrain, primarily along and south of the Mogollon
Rim. In addition, expect showers throughout the TAF period, with
thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Widespread wetting rainfall continues today,
with the highest amounts along and south of the Mogollon Rim.
Between 1 to 2 inches of rain is forecast across portions of Yavapai
and northern Gila counties, with locally higher amounts likely. Rain
showers continue Wednesday, with the best chances across Yavapai and
Coconino counties.

.Thursday through Saturday...Unsettled weather will prevail with
cooler temperatures and gusty southwest winds at times.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Flash Flood Watch through late
tonight FOR AZZ004>008-015-016- 018-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC...TPS
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff