Flash Flood Warning 124, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

588 
WGUS75 KFGZ 242101
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
201 PM MST FRI AUG 24 2018

AZC025-242345-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0124.000000T0000Z-180824T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
201 PM MST FRI AUG 24 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 144 PM MST, the stream gauge along Big Bug Creek in Mayer 
reported a 2 foot rise in water. This water will continue to move 
downstream toward Cordes Junction over the next 2 hours.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Mayer, Poland Junction, Cordes Junction and Spring Valley. 

This includes the following streams and drainages...Little Wolf
Creek...Big Bug Creek...Chaparral Gulch...Ash Creek...Antelope
Creek...Brushy Wash...Cedar Creek...Grapevine Creek...Agua Fria
River...Wolf Creek...Hackberry Creek and Yarber Wash.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 17 between mile markers 262 and 268.
 State Route 69 between mile markers 263 and 280.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall over the Goodwin fire scar will likely trigger life
threatening flash floods and debris flows in and downstream of the
fire area. Residences near drainages and creeks, particularly Big Bug
Creek and surrounding tributaries such as Grapevine Creek and
Hackberry Creek, may be affected by high water and debris flows.
Heavy rains may cause dangerous flooding across roadways in Mayer
near Big Bug Creek. Move away from drainages now!

&&

LAT...LON 3453 11222 3439 11208 3431 11212 3434 11222
      3444 11236 3452 11230

$$

MCT

243 
WGUS75 KFGZ 242149
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
249 PM MST FRI AUG 24 2018

AZC025-242345-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0124.000000T0000Z-180824T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
249 PM MST FRI AUG 24 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 246 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated additional heavy rain falling 
over Grapevine and Big Bug Creeks. This will lead to additional rises 
on Big Bug Creek from Mayer to Cordes Junction. Avoid these areas 
this afternoon.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Mayer, Poland Junction, Cordes Junction and Spring Valley. 

This includes the following streams and drainages...Little Wolf
Creek...Big Bug Creek...Chaparral Gulch...Ash Creek...Antelope
Creek...Brushy Wash...Cedar Creek...Grapevine Creek...Agua Fria
River...Wolf Creek...Hackberry Creek and Yarber Wash.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 17 between mile markers 262 and 268.
 State Route 69 between mile markers 263 and 280.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall over the Goodwin fire scar will likely trigger life
threatening flash floods and debris flows in and downstream of the
fire area. Residences near drainages and creeks, particularly Big Bug
Creek and surrounding tributaries such as Grapevine Creek and
Hackberry Creek, may be affected by high water and debris flows.
Heavy rains may cause dangerous flooding across roadways in Mayer
near Big Bug Creek. Move away from drainages now!

&&

LAT...LON 3453 11222 3439 11208 3431 11212 3434 11222
      3444 11236 3452 11230

$$

MCT

090 
WGUS75 KFGZ 242342
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
442 PM MST FRI AUG 24 2018

AZC025-242348-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0124.000000T0000Z-180824T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
442 PM MST FRI AUG 24 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM
MST...

At 440 PM MST, National Weather Service Flagstaff Doppler radar 
indicated that heavy rainfall had ended in the Mayer area, including 
the Goodwin Fire Scar.

Earlier high flows in Big Bug Creek have subsided and are moving 
downstream. As this water moves downstream toward the Agua Fria, the 
flood crest should attenuate further and Flash Flood conditions are 
not expected. Therefore, the Flash Flood Warning will be allowed to 
expire at 445 PM MST. Please continue to heed any remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 3453 11222 3439 11208 3431 11212 3434 11222
      3444 11236 3452 11230

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1001 AM MST Fri Aug 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Deep monsoon moisture will bring another round of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms today. Drier air advecting
into the region will lead to a downturn in shower and thunderstorm
activity later in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Ample moisture remains in place over much of
northern Arizona setting the stage for another active monsoon day.
Surface dewpoints range from the mid 50s to around 60 degrees
indicating significant low level moisture in the region.
Additionally, mostly sunny skies are allowing for sufficient heating
of the boundary layer this morning. Expect convection to develop
by midday with the most widespread showers and thunderstorms along
the Rim from Flagstaff southeast to the White Mountains. A
complex over northern Mexico will likely provide additional
moisture and lift later this evening to the southeast portion of
the region. This could keep shower and thunderstorm activity
going well into the evening hours in southern Navajo and Apache
counties. We will continue to monitor this potential.

A few minor changes were made to precipitation chances, but the
overall forecast remains on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /444 AM MST/...Flood water from storms yesterday
is still flowing down the Agua Fria and Paria Rivers this morning.
This water should recede by mid morning. The rain from yesterday
also helped fog to form in a few areas. Most notable was along
I-40 between Flagstaff and Williams. This fog should also burn off
by mid morning.

Moisture values (from satellite) have changed very little over
this portion of northern Arizona since yesterday morning...still
an inch or higher. Some drying has taken place over southern
Nevada in the past 24 hours (1.4 inch yesterday vs 0.8 inch this
morning).

Cloud cover over northern Arizona is thinner than yesterday
morning. This will allow an earlier start to storms. An active day
is expected across northern Arizona today. Storm motion west and
north of Flagstaff is expected to be southwest to northeast.
Storms south and east of Flagstaff are expected to move more south
to north. Many areas across Yavapai County have received heavy
rain over the past few days. Additional heavy rain over these
areas will generate more runoff rather quickly.

Drier air will continue to slowly advect into the region over the
weekend resulting in a continued decrease in convection. However,
enough moisture will remain in the White Mountains for scattered
to numerous storms each afternoon.

A drier airmass will remain in place early next week so we are
only expecting isolated monsoon activity each afternoon. Long
range model guidance indicates these drier conditions could last
well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Scattered showers and thunderstorm
are expected this afternoon with the most active areas along the Rim
from KFLG southeast to the White Mountains. IFR possible in the
stronger storm cells. Storm activity decreasing after 02Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture will remain over the district
with good chances for showers and thunderstorms again today and
Saturday. Expect scattered storms to develop each afternoon with the
greatest coverage along the Mogollon Rim southeast to the White
Mountains.

Sunday through Tuesday...Drier air will move into the region leading
to decreased shower and thunderstorm activity. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are still expected in the White Mountains region each
afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TPS/MAS
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...KD

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff