Flash Flood Warning 121, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

779 
WGUS75 KFGZ 240547
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1047 PM MST THU AUG 23 2018

AZC007-240715-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0121.000000T0000Z-180824T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila-
1047 PM MST THU AUG 23 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM MST FOR
GILA COUNTY...

At 1045 PM MST, the river guage on Tonto Creek near Jakes Corner 
measured a 4 foot rise with 6000 cfs of flow. These flood waters 
will continue downstream to Roosevelt Lake. Rainfall has ended over 
the warned area.  

* Low water crossings to Gisela will be impacted. 

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Jakes Corner, Gisela, and Deer Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3392 11131 3397 11133 3403 11135 3406 11141
      3416 11146 3420 11130 3408 11127 3399 11127
      3392 11130

$$

41

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
850 PM MST Thu Aug 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Deep monsoon moisture will bring another round of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms Friday. Drier air advecting
into the region will lead to a downturn in shower and
thunderstorm activity over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Made minor adjustments to reduce precipitation chances
in areas where rain has ended north of I-40 and increase chances
in areas in western and central Yavapai County where a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms remain. Expect to see this
activity dwindle through the evening into the early morning hours
Friday.

Flash Flood Warnings are still out at this time for portions of
southern Gila County near the Auga Fria and north Central Gila
County near Rye from earlier heavy rain events. In addition, a
Flash Flood Warning will continue for a wave of water is moving
down the Paria River from southern Utah down into Lees Ferry. If
in these areas, be cautious and do not attempt to enter flooded
roadways, rivers, or washes.

For tomorrow, expect coverage to decrease for areas north of the
Mogollon Rim as moisture becomes more limited. Areas south of the
Mogollon Rim will be in for another active day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /332 PM MST/...Scattered to numerous shower and
thunderstorm activity is ongoing across northern Arizona this
afternoon. Storms have been most numerous across Coconino and
Yavapai counties with more isolated activity over eastern portions
of the Rim. Latest hi-res guidance indicates storm activity will
diminish through the evening hours with little in the way of
overnight convection.

Another active monsoon day looks to be on tap for Friday. Moisture
will slightly decrease over northern portions of the area so
expect thunderstorms to be more focused along the Rim from roughly
Flagstaff to the White Mountains with more isolated activity to
the north. Drier air will continue to slowly advect into the
region over the weekend resulting in a continued decrease in
convection. However, enough moisture will remain in the White
Mountains for scattered to numerous storms each afternoon.

A drier airmass will remain in place early next week so we are
only expecting isolated monsoon activity each afternoon. Long
range model guidance indicates these drier conditions could last
well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Shower and thunderstorm activity
is diminishing with a few scattered showers south of a line from
KFLG to KSOW. Any remnant activity expected to end by 06z. Shower
and thunderstorm activity decreases Friday with the most active
areas along the Rim from KFLG southeast to the White Mountains.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture will remain over the district
with good chances for showers and thunderstorms again Friday. Drier
air will slowly move in beginning Saturday resulting in a downturn
in shower and thunderstorm activity for areas north and east of the
Mogollon Rim.

Sunday through Tuesday...Drier air will remain over the region
leading to decreased shower and thunderstorm activity. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are still expected in the White
Mountains region each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...ET/TPS
AVIATION...ET
FIRE WEATHER...TPS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
616 PM MST THU AUG 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MAYER                   34.40N 112.23W
08/23/2018                   YAVAPAI            AZ   MESONET

            A STREAM GAUGE ON BIG BUG CREEK IN MAYER AT
            THE CENTRAL AVENUE BRIDGE MEASURED A STAGE
            OF 6.6 FEET, INDICATING ABOUT A 5 FOOT RISE.

&&

MCT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
717 PM MST THU AUG 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S RYE                 34.09N 111.35W
08/23/2018                   GILA               AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GILA COUNTY S.O. REPORTS FLOODING AND DEBRIS
            ON HIGHWAY 87 AT MILEMARKER 241 AS RYE CREEK
            IS OUT OF ITS BANKS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
833 PM MST THU AUG 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WNW CORDES JUNCTION   34.34N 112.16W
08/23/2018                   YAVAPAI            AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            S SPRING LN JUST E OF E TRAILS END RD CLOSED
            DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROAD. PICTURE FROM
            SHERRIF'S OFFICE VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
902 PM MST THU AUG 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ESE CORDES JUNCTION   34.31N 112.06W
08/23/2018                   YAVAPAI            AZ   PUBLIC

            5 FOOT RISE ON AUGA FRIA NEAR CORDES
            JUNCTION.

&&