Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
259 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Scattered convection firing across the forecast area this afternoon.
Best coverage generally along and south of I-85 with isolated
coverage north. Should begin diminishing this evening, but I have
stretch at least a slight chance later into the overnight as there
should be plenty of roaming boundaries from this afternoon's
activity to take advantage of any residual pockets of instability.
Strong afternoon heating has generated moderate instability and
isolated strong to severe storms are a strong possibility through
the early evening.

Upper ridge continues to breakdown putting north Georgia firmly into
the southern edge of the better westerly flow tomorrow and allowing
a weak frontal boundary to approach the far north. Should see better
coverage of convection tomorrow into tomorrow evening, especially
across the north. With a lack of strong mid/upper-level support,
widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected, however isolated
strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out by afternoon as
instability peaks.

Heat indices across portions of central Georgia in the Heat Advisory
area have reached into the 100-106 range already this afternoon. At
this time, increased cloud cover appears to take just enough of the
edge off of tomorrow's expected temperatures to keep heat indices
below advisory levels.

20

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Forecast is on track with minimal changes needed. Troughing across
the east will dominate our sensible weather through the long term. A
front will approach the region Thursday, becoming draped across
north GA Friday.  Thus expect north GA will be the focus for
convection through the end of the work week.  The front will become
stalled somewhere across the northern half of GA through Sunday.
This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms areawide
through the weekend. A piece of energy rounding the trough will drop
south into the Ohio River Valley, eventually becoming a cut off low.
This pattern will help promote an increase in moisture flux thanks
to the stronger SWly component. Expect better overall coverage of
convection Sunday. As the front associated with this system
approaches Monday, better surface convergence and dynamics aloft
will result in another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms.
The front will likely cross late Monday night into early Tuesday
with drier air moving in thereafter.

Temperature will be AOA climo through the long term.

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 409 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018/

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
The upper level trough over the Great Lakes region Thursday will
move over the northeast U.S. on Friday which will push the surface
front into the TN Valley and north GA through this period. The
extended models diverge somewhat on Saturday and Sunday as far as
placement and intensity of deepening low over Great Lakes and
Midwest, but are in fair agreement as far as stalling the surface
front across portions of the forecast area. Big differences noted
by the beginning of next week as far as the development of the
upper low and its track, with GFS slower and further south in
positions of low. GFS also has better run-to-run consistency
bringing the next surface front into the forecast area early next
week.

Will continue chance of showers/thunderstorms, With likely chances
across northern portions of forecast area on Thursday and Friday
with the proximity of the surface front. The surface
front/boundary will help focus convective development through the
weekend with the second front moving through the forecast area
next week. Models are in good agreement showing increased moisture
across the area, and expect increased clouds as well as scattered
showers and thunderstorms to keep afternoon high temperatures
just below normal with overnight lows near normal through the
period.

Atwell

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the forecast area
through most of this forecast period. Local MVFR or lower
visibilities will develop between 06Z and 14Z, however I do not
anticipate any significant impacts at the TAF sites at this time.
Isolated to scattered convection is expected, generally between 18Z
and and 06Z this afternoon/evening. Scattered convection is expected
to develop again Wednesday afternoon with greater coverage across
northern portions of the area. Winds will be light and somewhat
variable in direction, generally 6kt or less, but will favor
southwest through northwest.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence on TSRA coverage/timing this afternoon/evening.
High confidence all other elements

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  91  73  90 /  30  40  30  50
Atlanta         76  90  73  89 /  30  50  40  50
Blairsville     67  84  67  82 /  20  60  50  60
Cartersville    74  90  72  88 /  20  50  50  60
Columbus        75  93  73  93 /  40  30  30  40
Gainesville     73  90  72  88 /  30  50  50  50
Macon           74  92  73  91 /  40  40  30  40
Rome            73  90  72  88 /  20  60  50  60
Peachtree City  74  91  72  90 /  30  40  30  50
Vidalia         73  93  75  93 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Chattahoochee...Crawford...
Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Greene...Hancock...
Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Laurens...
Macon...Marion...Monroe...Montgomery...Muscogee...Peach...
Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Upson...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...
Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
256 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
256 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A heat advisory is in effect until 7 PM this evening with heat
index values ranging from 102 to 107 degrees mainly in middle
Georgia, generally south of a line from Columbus to Forsyth to
Washington.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
through this evening. Any thunderstorms that develop could become
strong to severe with gusty winds, frequent lightning, large hail
and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, with
increasing chances Thursday through Sunday. Widespread severe
weather is not anticipated, however, some storms could produce
strong winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
302 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

GAZ048-049-059-060-071930-
Morgan GA-Putnam GA-Jasper GA-Newton GA-
302 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MORGAN...NORTHWESTERN
PUTNAM...NORTHEASTERN JASPER AND SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL
330 PM EDT...

At 301 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Godfrey, or 8 miles
southwest of Madison...moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Madison, Rutledge, Newborn, Mansfield, Shady Dale, Central Georgia
Experiment Stn, Farrar, Godfrey and Calvin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3330 8358 3347 8382 3361 8370 3360 8368
      3366 8363 3350 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 305DEG 22KT 3349 8356

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
310 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

GAZ093-072000-
Macon GA-
310 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 310 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Whitewater State Park,
or near Oglethorpe. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Oglethorpe, Montezuma, Marshallville, Ideal, Whitewater State Park,
Garden Valley, Winchester, Bartlett, Hicks and Saint Louis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3235 8419 3249 8414 3251 8411 3251 8407
      3253 8405 3252 8401 3252 8405 3251 8403
      3250 8403 3251 8398 3249 8393 3248 8392
      3249 8392 3247 8387 3244 8384 3239 8384
      3223 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 209DEG 3KT 3238 8406

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
320 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

GAZ054>058-068-070-071945-
Butts GA-Fayette GA-Lamar GA-Clayton GA-Spalding GA-Pike GA-Henry GA-
320 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BUTTS...SOUTHEASTERN
FAYETTE...NORTHERN LAMAR...SOUTHERN CLAYTON...SPALDING...NORTHEASTERN
PIKE AND SOUTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 320 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Woolsey to near Walker Mill...and moving south at
10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Griffin, Barnesville, Zebulon, Hampton, Lovejoy, Milner, Brooks,
Williamson, Orchard Hill, Woolsey, Sunny Side, Aldora, East Griffin,
Walker Mill, Hollonville, Inman, Rover, Luella, Liberty Hill and Jw
Smith Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3347 8438 3327 8399 3320 8403 3320 8404
      3319 8404 3303 8414 3318 8450 3320 8449
      3322 8450 3323 8450 3324 8451 3326 8450
      3330 8452
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 356DEG 11KT 3336 8437 3325 8418

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
328 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

GAZ066-072015-
Troup GA-
328 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN TROUP COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

At 328 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Abbottsford, or 7
miles west of LaGrange...moving east at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
LaGrange, Piedmont Heights, Cannonville, Hillcrest, Wares Crossroads,
Baughs Crossroads, State Line Park, Abbottsford, Smiths Crossroad,
Long Cane and Rocky Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3316 8512 3317 8512 3318 8509 3317 8509
      3318 8506 3318 8505 3319 8503 3319 8502
      3289 8500 3289 8519 3313 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 268DEG 6KT 3304 8516

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
331 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

GAZ079-080-091-072015-
Taylor GA-Marion GA-Talbot GA-
331 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN TAYLOR...NORTHERN MARION
AND SOUTHERN TALBOT COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 331 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Geneva, or 7 miles
south of Talbotton. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Talbotton, Junction City, Geneva, Tazewell, Marion Estates, Juniper,
Baldwinville, Oakland, Olive Branch, Po Biddy Crossroads and Mauk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3238 8466 3273 8461 3271 8438 3237 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 002DEG 3KT 3256 8452

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
335 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

GAZ036>038-049-050-060-072000-
Morgan GA-Putnam GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-Oconee GA-Greene GA-
335 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN...
NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM...SOUTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE...SOUTHERN CLARKE...
SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE AND GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 335 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Wrayswood to near Parks Mill...and moving east at
10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Madison, Greensboro, Watkinsville, Union Point, Woodville, White
Plains, Siloam, Maxeys, Buckhead, Phoenix, Reynolds Plantation,
Athens-Clarke County, Liberty, Stephens, Veazey, Wrayswood, Barnett
Shoals, Greshamville, Parks Mill and Swords.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3364 8297 3362 8298 3363 8299 3362 8300
      3360 8299 3358 8301 3349 8298 3337 8315
      3348 8351 3389 8340 3380 8298 3378 8298
      3373 8295 3369 8300 3366 8295
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 259DEG 9KT 3372 8325 3351 8334

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH