Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
409 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
Primary concerns in the short term once again includes coverage and
intensity of convection in the afternoon/evening periods. However
also concerned about extreme heat.

Pattern starting to change by Wed as westerlies slowly push into TN
and northern AL/GA. For today, again expect isolated TSRA to develop
around 1PM and expand to about 30% coverage with slightly higher
coverage over middle and eastern GA. Also, with high SBCAPE values
around 2500 J/kg, some storms will be strong and one or two could
become severe.

After convection dissipates by midnight, will have to watch for any
rogue MCS development in westerlies. Hires models keeping those
storms NW of CWA by Wed morning, but wouldn't be surprised if
remnant convection and clouds persist a little longer than
forecast. By afternoon, new development along any remaining
boundaries or a weak remnant MCV, could become quite strong with
much greater coverage than previous days. Have PoPs of 60-70% Wed
afternoon in north and northwest GA with PoPs decreasing down to 30%
south of Columbus and Macon. Storms may persist into the overnight
hours if they become organized.

Finally, saw heat index values of 105 to 109 yesterday in parts of
middle GA as not only dewpoints were high but temperatures as well,
which were 3 to 5 degs above the forecast I put out yesterday. Have
used a 50-50 blend of 2-day persistence and model consensus blend
for max temps today and Wed. The hourly temps and dewpoints derived
from this indicate will see heat index values similar to yesterday
this afternoon. Have issued advisory for much of middle GA from 1-
7pm when HI values will be highest. With clouds and more widespread
convection, not as confident about advisory criteria being met Wed
so have deferred any issuance to later shifts.

SNELSON

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
The upper level trough over the Great Lakes region Thursday will
move over the northeast U.S. on Friday which will push the surface
front into the TN Valley and north GA through this period. The
extended models diverge somewhat on Saturday and Sunday as far as
placement and intensity of deepening low over Great Lakes and
Midwest, but are in fair agreement as far as stalling the surface
front across portions of the forecast area. Big differences noted
by the beginning of next week as far as the development of the
upper low and its track, with GFS slower and further south in
positions of low. GFS also has better run-to-run consistency
bringing the next surface front into the forecast area early next
week.

Will continue chance of showers/thunderstorms, With likely chances
across northern portions of forecast area on Thursday and Friday
with the proximity of the surface front. The surface
front/boundary will help focus convective development through the
weekend with the second front moving through the forecast area
next week. Models are in good agreement showing increased moisture
across the area, and expect increased clouds as well as scattered
showers and thunderstorms to keep afternoon high temperatures
just below normal with overnight lows near normal through the
period.

Atwell

&&

AVIATION...

06Z Update...
Main concerns are coverage/likelihood of TSRA this afternoon.
Based on expected coverage today and observed trends yesterday,
have included PROB30 for all sites and will likely increase this
to TEMPO in later updates. Patchy MVFR fog possible at airports
prone to valley/river fog this morning but should not be
widespread. Sfc winds will remain W to SW today at 4-6kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence all elements.
Medium confidence on TSRA coverage this afternoon/evening
High confidence all other elements
SNelson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  73  92  73 /  30  20  50  10
Atlanta         92  76  91  73 /  30  20  50  20
Blairsville     86  67  85  67 /  30  20  70  30
Cartersville    92  72  91  71 /  30  20  50  30
Columbus        94  76  93  75 /  30  20  30  10
Gainesville     90  73  90  72 /  30  20  50  20
Macon           95  74  95  74 /  30  20  30  10
Rome            93  73  92  71 /  20  20  60  40
Peachtree City  93  74  92  72 /  30  20  40  20
Vidalia         93  74  93  75 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening
for the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...
Chattahoochee...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...
Glascock...Greene...Hancock...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...
Johnson...Jones...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Monroe...
Montgomery...Muscogee...Peach...Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...
Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...Upson...Warren...Washington...
Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....Atwell
AVIATION...SNELSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
508 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-080915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
508 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. Thunderstorms that do develop could be strong with
gusty winds, dangerous lightning and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, with
increasing chances Thursday through Sunday. Widespread severe
weather is not anticipated, however, some storms could produce
strong winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
642 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

GAZ107>109-071115-
Wilcox GA-Dodge GA-Pulaski GA-
642 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WILCOX...NORTHWESTERN
DODGE AND SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM EDT...

At 642 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Ocmulgee Banks, or 7
miles southeast of Hawkinsville...moving southwest at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Pineview, Pope City, Cedar Creek, Ocmulgee Banks and Finleyson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3206 8351 3215 8355 3228 8333 3223 8330
      3220 8332 3204 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 1042Z 047DEG 8KT 3222 8336

WIND...40MPH